If there is a minor gap down tomorrow then the confirmation for the buy signal would be over 3.84-3.85 level or if it gaps up then wait for retest of the above levels. To be safe put a put a stop 10c below today's low.
Expected a green close... but well off the lows is a start. What to expect tomorrow? If it moves down then expect support in 3.65-3.68 area (61.8% to 50% fib retracement of move from 3.55 to 3.8) If support is established the next move will be fast to 4.08 to 4.34 and it can overshoot to even 4.7 to 4.8 level. You should have a minimum retrace to 4-4.3 level and then a Wave-iii should carry it over 5.6 level. Will have to wait and see as the wave unfold. If today's lows are breached then all bets are off...
Tomorrow can be setting up to be reversal day... Today was the third consecutive gap (Pattern = BULLISH THREE GAP DOWNS) and close at or near the lows... A slightly lower open and reversal to the upside is very likely. Also, A new modest low would complete the Wave-v of the minute wave. BTU is setting up to be one more low away from a reversal that should at least carry to 4.8 - 5.6. A remote possibility is a gap up above today's high causing another type of reversal... (Unlikely)
Gee.... tell that to Carl Icahn who bought NFLX when the chart and fundamentals were ugly and make more than 10X his money. Don't fall for the WS gimmick of Upgrade at the top and downgrade at the bottom...
MNST seems to have completed 5 waves of the EW pattern going back to mid 90's and if that count is indeed true then expect a nice 20%-30% gap down after earnings (If they miss and/or guide lower, also any possible issues with the KO deal) The other possibility is a small gap up followed by a reversal (Often called exhaustion gap) Either way, I think the major run in the stock that has lasted 20 years is coming to a grinding halt. Also, to draw parallel check out the action of MNST just before the 2007 top.
Some decent insider selling. The only buys were exercising their options... The question is how much upside does one expect from these levels? 5%, 10% or 20%... The stock has already gapped up the past 3 earnings and longs expect that to happen every quarter??
This is traditionally the weakest Q for MNST, couple that with strong $ and global slow down. Also, law suits and related costs... Not to mentioned the stock has gapped up the last 3 earnings and not really pulled back or consolidated the gains (Typical for EW Wave-5 action) The neutralizing factor could be the closure of KO deal... Will hav to wait an see.
Peabody Energy (BTU) [As of May-31st, 2015]
Current SI: 73.22 M Shares
Prior SI: 70.42 M Shares
Increase (# Shares): 2.8 M
Increase (% Shares): 4%
SI as % of Float: 26.6%
Elliot Wave Technical Analysis and Price Targets
As per Elliot Wave Theory:
PT-1: $3.3-$3.6 Range (Minute Wave) (1-2 weeks)
PT2: $4.5-$5.9 Range (Minor Wave-3 termination) (4-6 Weeks)
PT-3: $7-$8 Range (End of Wave-A) (Minor Wave-4 termination) (6-10 Weeks)
Note: All time frames are from the presumed bottom on June-16th @ $2.21
The minimum price target is the Wave-4 of prior degree, in this case would be $8 level. Look at he moves in VALE and PBR from their bottoms... BTU will be similar
Check out my charts on StockTwits under handle "Options_Only_Trader"
Risk/Reward = 10%-15% downside, 50%-150% upside...
Peabody Energy (BTU) [As of June-15th, 2015]
Current SI: 80.45 M Shares
Prior SI: 73.22 M Shares
Increase (# Shares): 7.3 M
Increase (% Shares): 9.9%
SI as % of Float: 29.2%
7M shares shorted between 2.21 and 3.49 (Recipe for impending squeeze) Will do a separate post for squeeze analysis.
It is apparent that technicals are gibberish to a novice like you... and what is with the language? For an old guy, I expected a little bit more courtesy. Anyways, we will find out Friday... My position is very simple, it either reverses from these levels or might have one last exhaustion gap up and then decline sharply. Check out QLYS post-earnings drop... Market is in the mode of shoot first and ask questions later mode for anybody that misses or guides lower...
I'll indulge your comment on the fundamental aspect of it... What is the catalyst that the company could say during the earnings call that would justify another 10% or higher upside move? Just wondering...
So, the company's best use of it's cash is Buy back? KO deal is already priced and is a non-factor on the positive side. I guess you've no clue about the deteriorating technicals on the charts and you've bearish divergences all over the place. Not to mention that the broader market is the verge of a major top for years to come. Cover my short? In today's age why would i touch the stock when I can place my trade via options. Own, a bunch of Sep puts and some May puts (In case we get that 20% drop). The way i see it is the best case scenario is an exhaustion gap or a downside gap would complete the island-reversal of "monster" proportion :)
The AH volume is pathetic @ 170 K... Which eludes the fact that the institutional players are not involved. So, the real tell would be how it trades tomorrow... But, either way looks like a gap down might be result based on the current levels. But if gaps below the $134 level then some technical selling will take this down to $125 ish level in no time. Let us see how it trades for the next couple of hours first...
My 2 cents on the matter...
MNST will make a retracement to $136-$140 level, but after that it is highly likely that a nasty Wave-iii of 3 will unfold and will take the stock anywhere between $95-$110 (Depending on the extension of Wave-i, which is 144.35 to 127.7). Why? Cuz, the broader market will also take nose dive once 2150-2160 level is touched.
What would negate the above EW count? If MNST can take out the 144.69 high... but, I really doubt it.
As per EW theory, this leg down would be an over throw of an ending diagonal. Once this is complete and it breaks the downward wedge (Currently at 4.3) then this will move very quickly to 4.80 level. Potential downside targets are 3.86-3.71.
If we consider 3.55-3.89 as Wave-i (Which was a 5 wave move that suggests impulse) then
Wave-ii is 76.6% level retracement of Wave-i, if this count is true then the next move up should go well beyond $4, but if a new low is hit then we have to alter the wave count structure.
If the upward thrust takes shape then inter mediate target is $8 and the short term target is $$5.5 - 5.9. You will see some resistance between 4.3-4.8 level