" so if there is no way out of this mess for NIHD, which I believe is true"
You want management to admit that they have drive the company in to the ground and wave a white flag??? Why would they want to lose their nice paying executive jobs??
BEARS GAME PLAN OR PLAYBOOK
Market is way over bought as per many metrics... Next week could be the start of something.
Monday would be a great day for another flat to higher open/ reverse intra-day and close today's opening gap and then close lower of higher volume than today.
The dip buyers jump in, small bump and then resumes downward... the late buyers panic and market moves lower in to the week. No real support of any sort until you get to 1900-1910 level. A close below 1,915.98 next Friday would complete the intra-week reversal.
Might get a one day bounce from 1898 - 20 MA/EMA level and fail. Move down to test 50 DMA (1880-1885). Good chance it might not hold this time around or maybe once bounce and then fails. if it gets below 1860 then panic will set in as intra-month reversal is big deal...
BULLS GAME PLAN OR PLAYBOOK
Very simple, Buy the 1-4 point dips and melt up will take SPY to the coveted 200
I think we get some resolution next week or worse comes to worse the week after. But the game plans don't change....
For all of those who keep posting about NIHD Buyout with $2, $3 $5 etc. price targets. Some food for thought...
NIHD/Share holder perspective
1) Why would the majority of the current SH (Institutions representing their clients) agree to a few $ buyout when they will still be under water?
2) The bond holders would welcome it if it is a cash deal and they paid in full... I don't think it would be an issue, right CCCBondyGuy/Franc?
3) Most important of all why would the company sell themselves for $3 or $5 when they have that much cash in hand?
1) What does NIHD have that is worth 4.5 B + what ever the buyout price for the common? I know 4B + revenue, growth in Latin america, assets etc...etc... but, seriously who would want them and why?
2) How can the buyer justify this acquisition to their SH? Esp. if they are paying the debt and 5X premium over the market cap.
3) Would the buyer have to deal with anti-trust and/or other government related hazzles?
I rest my case again...
They did make it touch 0.55 intra-day with one sketchy trade, but sellers are still in control.
Today's close is very important for several reasons
1) Weekly close
2) Breaking downward trend
3) 5/13 EMA have turned up for the first time in a while
Don't see much of BIDS... might sell-off in to the close and settle around 0.55 wiping out today's gains.
The gap at open would have to be closed. So, either it trades down in to the close today or will move down Monday. Again, I attribute this rally to some short covering to lock their profits (Considering there was no real news)
But, if it can get back to 0.54-0.55 and bounce back strongly then a short term bottom might have been put. Again, I think the broader market is way over bought and can come down hard. it doesn't mean that NIHD can't trade in it's own world.
Hanging by the thread... Looks like it wants to close the opening gap in the mid 12's first. A close below 13.15 would push the stock lower. World cup soccer might be a short term catalyst. Will have to wait and see...
Today's ECB fueled price action reminds me of Sep-2012. Why?
QE fueled rally... AAPL frenzy carrying QQQ along with it and everybody calling for 2000 (Like they did 1500) and guess what?
The market put in a top @ 1474.51 on Sep 14th, 2012 and that was not broken until the following year in Jan (4 months later). Will history repeat itself this time around? Will have to wait and see...
I'm short via puts on SPY/QQQ.. I don't think we blow through 1950 or 17K on this go and QQQ has been riding on AAPL until today.
Markets setting up for an outside reversal month to the downside. This monster rally started that way in Oct-11 and can end the same way. All the below indices/ETFs have already reached a higher-high than their may highs...
Levels to watch:
$SPX: May Low = 1,859.79 (4%-5% lower)
$RUT: May Low = 1,082.53 (6%-7% lower)
$NAS: May Low = 4,025.24 (6%-7% lower)
$DJA: May Low = 16,341.30 (3%-4% lower)
$NYA: May Low = 10,518.95 (3%-4% lower)
XLF: May Low = 21.56 (5%-6% lower)
I short, if we see corrections of the above mentioned magnitudes this month and close around there this could be a major technical reversal in a very long time and could lead to that 10%-20% correction that has been long over due... Market internal are much weaker than before and this last leg is really stretched and VIX lingering around Multi-decade lows. No one indicator is good enough to predict, but consider several factors like NASDAQ & SMALLCAPs already topped out. The divergences, lack of bigger volume at new all time highs... All of these are trying to tell something and this is my interpretation of it.
NIHD did hold it's gains in to the close (Broader market strength might have helped) which is good sign if we see a follow through tomorrow. The only issue is today's volume of 6.44 M shares is less than 7.4 M from May-30th when it broke below 0.54 level.
Has difficulty breaking 0.55. If it fails here then heading back lower and this would be a relief rally. If it closes over 0.6 and shows some follow though then we might see 0.8. But the volume is low compared to May-21st and too much over head supply @ 0.55
General rule of thumb...Volume just shows the lack of conviction. It is not about what I think or want... I'm long PUTS on SPY & QQQ and believe we are in a tipping point with 10%+ correction on SPY
I guess this rally is moves up on only QE fumes... Setting new highs on lower & lower volume. Sounds like a healthy market, not to mention the other divergences.