My PT is def. between $5-$6. It should take 1/3-1.5 the amount of time (it took to drop from $5 to $1) once the bottom is in...
Somebody is making a mild bullish bet on BTU by selling the following naked puts...
Jan-2016, $1.50 puts - Sold 20K
Jan-2016, $1.00 puts - Sold 40K
About 6 million shares worth.
How do we know that it was a sell, cuz it was sold at the BID price.
Another aspect from the business perspective is that BTU and ACI seem to own the coal assets as opposed to just mining for it like ANR did. Again, remember reading it somewhere...
I wouldn't pay any attention to these WS clowns (Oooops... I meant analysts) who just solely promote their personal agenda (At least most of them)
80M shares???? You are still looking at yahoo numbers??? I posted a week ago that it is 98.8 M shares now
If I had to take a guess... Shorts accumulated a bunch of shares in the early hours and then turned around and dumped them in a rapid fashion to take out more stops. If no news comes out today from BTU then the above makes sense...
This is about the guy who wrote the article... No conflict of interest there at all :)
" Climate/Renewable Energy space"
"With 300 scientific papers and many patents written, Keith has a clear view of innovation in the Biotechnology and Climate/Renewable Energy space. He is not a financial advisor but his perspective adds relevance to decision-making concerning feasibility and investment in technology innovation."
I don't ever recall BTU trading 3 cent range all day!!! Especially, considering how volatile it has been in the recent weeks. It is almost like somebody wants this not to move??? Also, it really puzzling that none of the insiders have purchased a single share since April. They did so at much higher levels $4+, $7+, $9+???
Just for kicks... let us speculate one of the 3 things...
1) Impending BK filing
- What are the chances of doing this in the next 3-6 months?
2) Impending reverse split
- A drop below $1 and remaining there can increase the chances
3) Private equity deal
- Makes a lot of sense at these depressed levels if some with cash does not see the demise of coal
It would be interesting to see who owns majority of the common today? last week of June and first week of July a ton of shares changed hands. Appears to be seller exhaustion, but with BTU new sellers show up after a day or 2 of low volumes.
You presume that I did not buy any more calls of other strikes of other time periods??? Really?? Even you gotta know know better than that....
I own Dec-15, Jan-16 and Jan17 calls ranging from $2-$5.5. Also, you presume... i never sold any calls against it?? I normally sell puts to finance my calls... but BTU was too volatile and risky. The beauty of call options is your risk is predefined...
All my analysis is based of if my broader wave count is correct... If is correct then we should the price reverse sharply and head back to the Wave-4 of the higher degree a the the minimum. The price range for that is $5.9-$8.
By fib numbers:
Retracements of the entire decline for Wave-A or Wave-1
Very conservative = 23.2% retracement = $3.51
Normal = 38.2% retracement = $6.28
Considering the extreme over sold conditions, high short interest and extreme bearish sentiment... I would expect a more violent upside move. Similar to the moves made by PBR between Mar-May this year.
Major levels to watch:
1) Must clear 1.50 to get back above support and overcome ST downtrend over 1.6
2) Next test would be to take out $1.7 and then $1.9 (breaks the LT downtrend)
3) Should easily carry it though $2.6-$2.7 level.
4) If 2.73 is broken then 3.4-3.5 is the next stop, if not will retrace to test the prior breakout.
5) Expect 3.5 to be big resistance level.
6) After the retracemnt is done... the next move should be bigger and faster toward the PT range.
He said he is short BTU and CNX (Never mentioned from what price), but to me it makes not sense in risking $$$$$ on the short side at these levels.
If we consider the decline from 2011-now as an A-B-C pattern decline the the numbers work this way.
Wave-A = 73.95-13.86 (Apr-2011 to Jul-2013)
Wave-B = 13.86-21.28 (Jul-2013 to Nov-2013)
Wave-C = Typically 1 or 1.618 times Wave-A (Nov-2013 - Jul-2015??)
Wave-A * 1 = 3.98 (Obviously NOT)
Wave-A * 1.618 = 1.4178 (Today's closing price)
The stock should reverse (At least on a short term basis) when it hits important Fibonacci levels. A few weeks ago... It reversed strongly at 1.43 and I assumed it was close enough, but apparently here we are closing at that exact number. Well, let us see how it plays out tomorrow...
It would be arrogant and novice to say that one can have the labeling correct every single time. In fact, that is the beauty of the wave principle that more than one interpretation is possible, but at the end of it only one pattern will emerge as the winner by the process of elimination. Once thing is for sure... markets generally don't give you a lot of time to sell the top or buy the bottom. I did post last week that the upward thrust was not strong enough and one might low might be in the cards. Yes, when it is complete then a reversal is imminent.
Next big Upside or Downside move should resolve itself either tomorrow or latest by this week. My bet is that it has a higher change of breaking 1.7 get to 1.9 this week. outside reversal for the week is still in play. A close over 1.84 on Friday would be suffice...
How dumb are you? My PT is is $5-$6 (Minimum) (Potentially as high as $8) in the next 3-6 months... I couldn't care less about the smaller daily moves. The resolution should come to fruition soon. $1.7, $1.9 and then the downtrend line. If this breaks to the upside, you will be gone for good. Of course... a weasel like you will show up someday with an other ID.
If you did not have such thick skull... You would get it!
Apparently, you are knuckle-head that doesn't even understand the phrase "Throwing the baby with the bath water"... That was the point, BTU stock is being punished at the same way as ANR/ACI and in reality it is not even close in terms of financial distress.