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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

picker.bottom 273 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2014 2:20 AM Member since: Feb 26, 2010
  • Reply to

    Volume is suspect

    by picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 1:25 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    50-100 points? Are you kidd. me? How quickly people forget the blood-bath days... We have reached extreme over- bought, over-bullish levels... Extreme is so many other metrics that everything is going to correct hard & fast... Absolutely, no PUT protection in place and once the the party ends... Everyone will hit the exit doors and can get ugly very fast. Go check out my posts on SPY board for the details...

  • Reply to

    Volume is suspect

    by picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 1:25 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Duh!

    Since when did you become an expert on stocks Mr.bond guy? Go look at stocks that are in a strong downtrend, high short interests, potential BK looming situation and let me know how they perform when the broader market tanks. NIHD can defy the odds only if a major covenant deal is announced this week or next. Most people here are missing on the immense trading opportunity is providing on a daily basis... This stock is not for investment, just trading. If not convinced ask the long term investors about their break-even. 7.4 M shares volume is going up against 14 M of May 21st and unless all the supply has been worked off... It can't move higher.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    My call seems to working so far... But, the day is far from over. We will have to wait and see if we get the intra-day reversal today. Friday's opening gap is like a magnet and should pull down to the 1941 level. Russell rolling over would be huge as it would be considered a fail of the H&S test.

  • picker.bottom by picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    Volume is relatively low for such a critical level and for a break out... Broader market ready to roll-over. I would fade NIHD at this point. I think the S&P will fall to 1895-1900 very fast... Do you think NIHD will be impervious to that move? Unless, covenant news comes out this week... back to 50's and lower...

  • Going out on a limb and calling a near term TOP between 1950-1956 (Most likely next week)

    Prediction for next week's action:
    -------------------------------------------
    Step #1
    -----------
    Monday would be a great day for another flat to higher open/ reverse intra-day and close today's opening gap and then close lower of higher volume than today.

    Step #2
    -----------
    The dip buyers jump in, small bump and then resumes downward... the late buyers panic and market moves lower in to the week. No real support of any sort until you get to 1900-1910 level. A close below 1,915.98 next Friday would complete the intra-week reversal.

    Step #3
    -----------
    Might get a one day bounce from 1898 - 20 MA/EMA level and fail. Move down to test 50 DMA (1880-1885). Good chance it might not hold this time around or maybe once bounce and then fails.

    Step #4
    ------------
    Test the 100 DMA and the key level of 1860, might get a bounce first time or fall though hard to say at this point. If it gets below 1860 and it towards the end of June, then panic will set in as intra-month reversal is big deal...

    Step #5
    -----------
    Test the 150 DMA (might get a bounce) and then the big one 200 DMA and since it hasn't been tested since Dec-2012 (Yes, been that long) it deseverves at least a bounce to the 100 DMA or even 50 DMA which should fail and the bigger sell off continues... to the 1700 level (the trend line from Oct-2011 should come in to play) and 2014 lows, and the the May-2013 Top of 1687. A bounce a this point....

    Step #6 and further
    --------------------------
    If the QE fumes start coming off and reality about the economy starts to sink in...1565 (2000, 2007 top) and not to forget the gap at the 1400 level from the beginning of 2013.

    Now what could negate the above theory....

    S&P getting to 2000 and Russell making a new high, until that happens this could be another long term top in the making...

  • Reply to

    Next week is pivotal for BULLS/BEARS - Why?

    by picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 6:16 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    We are bumping up against the upper end of the channel that has been in place for 3 years... A few points is all it can muster before heading back to 1900. My guess it 1950-1956 is the top and it will complete the intra-week reversal first.

  • Reply to

    NIHD Buyout - Serious Debate?

    by picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 5:54 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    " so if there is no way out of this mess for NIHD, which I believe is true"

    You want management to admit that they have drive the company in to the ground and wave a white flag??? Why would they want to lose their nice paying executive jobs??

  • BEARS GAME PLAN OR PLAYBOOK
    -------------------------------------------------

    Market is way over bought as per many metrics... Next week could be the start of something.

    Step #1
    -----------
    Monday would be a great day for another flat to higher open/ reverse intra-day and close today's opening gap and then close lower of higher volume than today.

    Step #2
    -----------
    The dip buyers jump in, small bump and then resumes downward... the late buyers panic and market moves lower in to the week. No real support of any sort until you get to 1900-1910 level. A close below 1,915.98 next Friday would complete the intra-week reversal.

    Step #3
    -----------
    Might get a one day bounce from 1898 - 20 MA/EMA level and fail. Move down to test 50 DMA (1880-1885). Good chance it might not hold this time around or maybe once bounce and then fails. if it gets below 1860 then panic will set in as intra-month reversal is big deal...

    BULLS GAME PLAN OR PLAYBOOK
    -------------------------------------------------

    Very simple, Buy the 1-4 point dips and melt up will take SPY to the coveted 200

    Bottom Line:
    -----------------
    I think we get some resolution next week or worse comes to worse the week after. But the game plans don't change....

  • picker.bottom by picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    For all of those who keep posting about NIHD Buyout with $2, $3 $5 etc. price targets. Some food for thought...

    NIHD/Share holder perspective
    --------------------------------------------

    1) Why would the majority of the current SH (Institutions representing their clients) agree to a few $ buyout when they will still be under water?

    2) The bond holders would welcome it if it is a cash deal and they paid in full... I don't think it would be an issue, right CCCBondyGuy/Franc?

    3) Most important of all why would the company sell themselves for $3 or $5 when they have that much cash in hand?

    Buyer Perspective
    ------------------------

    1) What does NIHD have that is worth 4.5 B + what ever the buyout price for the common? I know 4B + revenue, growth in Latin america, assets etc...etc... but, seriously who would want them and why?

    2) How can the buyer justify this acquisition to their SH? Esp. if they are paying the debt and 5X premium over the market cap.

    3) Would the buyer have to deal with anti-trust and/or other government related hazzles?

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    I rest my case again...

    They did make it touch 0.55 intra-day with one sketchy trade, but sellers are still in control.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    Today's close is very important for several reasons

    1) Weekly close
    2) Breaking downward trend
    3) 5/13 EMA have turned up for the first time in a while

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Don't see much of BIDS... might sell-off in to the close and settle around 0.55 wiping out today's gains.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    The gap at open would have to be closed. So, either it trades down in to the close today or will move down Monday. Again, I attribute this rally to some short covering to lock their profits (Considering there was no real news)

    But, if it can get back to 0.54-0.55 and bounce back strongly then a short term bottom might have been put. Again, I think the broader market is way over bought and can come down hard. it doesn't mean that NIHD can't trade in it's own world.

  • Reply to

    Outside reversal month to the downside?

    by picker.bottom Jun 5, 2014 6:08 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    Pathetic volume on SPY/QQQ... This breakout is a real suspect

  • Reply to

    PBR not looking good

    by picker.bottom Jun 4, 2014 5:30 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 3:15 AM Flag

    Hanging by the thread... Looks like it wants to close the opening gap in the mid 12's first. A close below 13.15 would push the stock lower. World cup soccer might be a short term catalyst. Will have to wait and see...

  • Reply to

    Outside reversal month to the downside?

    by picker.bottom Jun 5, 2014 6:08 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 5, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    Today's ECB fueled price action reminds me of Sep-2012. Why?

    QE fueled rally... AAPL frenzy carrying QQQ along with it and everybody calling for 2000 (Like they did 1500) and guess what?

    The market put in a top @ 1474.51 on Sep 14th, 2012 and that was not broken until the following year in Jan (4 months later). Will history repeat itself this time around? Will have to wait and see...

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 5, 2014 8:15 PM Flag

    I'm short via puts on SPY/QQQ.. I don't think we blow through 1950 or 17K on this go and QQQ has been riding on AAPL until today.

  • Markets setting up for an outside reversal month to the downside. This monster rally started that way in Oct-11 and can end the same way. All the below indices/ETFs have already reached a higher-high than their may highs...

    Levels to watch:
    ---------------------

    $SPX: May Low = 1,859.79 (4%-5% lower)
    $RUT: May Low = 1,082.53 (6%-7% lower)
    $NAS: May Low = 4,025.24 (6%-7% lower)
    $DJA: May Low = 16,341.30 (3%-4% lower)
    $NYA: May Low = 10,518.95 (3%-4% lower)

    XLF: May Low = 21.56 (5%-6% lower)

    I short, if we see corrections of the above mentioned magnitudes this month and close around there this could be a major technical reversal in a very long time and could lead to that 10%-20% correction that has been long over due... Market internal are much weaker than before and this last leg is really stretched and VIX lingering around Multi-decade lows. No one indicator is good enough to predict, but consider several factors like NASDAQ & SMALLCAPs already topped out. The divergences, lack of bigger volume at new all time highs... All of these are trying to tell something and this is my interpretation of it.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 5, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    NIHD did hold it's gains in to the close (Broader market strength might have helped) which is good sign if we see a follow through tomorrow. The only issue is today's volume of 6.44 M shares is less than 7.4 M from May-30th when it broke below 0.54 level.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 5, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    Has difficulty breaking 0.55. If it fails here then heading back lower and this would be a relief rally. If it closes over 0.6 and shows some follow though then we might see 0.8. But the volume is low compared to May-21st and too much over head supply @ 0.55

SKUL
7.19-0.04(-0.55%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT

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