If we consider 3.55-3.89 as Wave-i (Which was a 5 wave move that suggests impulse) then
Wave-ii is 76.6% level retracement of Wave-i, if this count is true then the next move up should go well beyond $4, but if a new low is hit then we have to alter the wave count structure.
If the upward thrust takes shape then inter mediate target is $8 and the short term target is $$5.5 - 5.9. You will see some resistance between 4.3-4.8 level
I my wave count is correct then we are in Wave-5 at the minor, intermediate waves and end of Wave-C that started in 2011. The most conservative target is the prior wave-4 which is at $8 level.
Expected a green close... but well off the lows is a start. What to expect tomorrow? If it moves down then expect support in 3.65-3.68 area (61.8% to 50% fib retracement of move from 3.55 to 3.8) If support is established the next move will be fast to 4.08 to 4.34 and it can overshoot to even 4.7 to 4.8 level. You should have a minimum retrace to 4-4.3 level and then a Wave-iii should carry it over 5.6 level. Will have to wait and see as the wave unfold. If today's lows are breached then all bets are off...
3.71 and 3.56 has some fib significance, but where are you getting your levels? We might be at the tail end of downtrend since 2011
It depends of the how aggressive you are with your trades... I actually almost trade options exclusively and been adding to Sep/Dec calls. You can check out my posts on stock twits under "Options_Only_Trader". I follow EW patterns to determine major trend reversals and if my #$%$ is correct then BTU is on the verge of making one
I'm just stating the general guidelines to confirm the pattern. Price needs to get above the mid-point of the prior day.
If there is a minor gap down tomorrow then the confirmation for the buy signal would be over 3.84-3.85 level or if it gaps up then wait for retest of the above levels. To be safe put a put a stop 10c below today's low.
This is kind of extreme bearish headlines that will cause the violent reversal in trend. I'm sure the headlines in 2008 (Ultimate peak) and 2011 (retracement top) read like "Coal super cycle will last years if not decades" etc...etc..
Tomorrow can be setting up to be reversal day... Today was the third consecutive gap (Pattern = BULLISH THREE GAP DOWNS) and close at or near the lows... A slightly lower open and reversal to the upside is very likely. Also, A new modest low would complete the Wave-v of the minute wave. BTU is setting up to be one more low away from a reversal that should at least carry to 4.8 - 5.6. A remote possibility is a gap up above today's high causing another type of reversal... (Unlikely)
As per EW theory, this leg down would be an over throw of an ending diagonal. Once this is complete and it breaks the downward wedge (Currently at 4.3) then this will move very quickly to 4.80 level. Potential downside targets are 3.86-3.71.
It has to hold the prior lows or maybe move lower intra-day and then bounce strongly... But, RSI, CCI, %R and many other indicators are showing bullish divergences.
My 2 cents on the matter...
MNST will make a retracement to $136-$140 level, but after that it is highly likely that a nasty Wave-iii of 3 will unfold and will take the stock anywhere between $95-$110 (Depending on the extension of Wave-i, which is 144.35 to 127.7). Why? Cuz, the broader market will also take nose dive once 2150-2160 level is touched.
What would negate the above EW count? If MNST can take out the 144.69 high... but, I really doubt it.
I rest my case.... Make a 70% gains on my options trade. This is just the Wave-1 of the bigger wave-A decline Now expect a retracement (if today's low holds) to no more than 136-140 range depending on the fib retracement. Once that is done then this is heading lower in a hurry for Wave-3 of Wave-A
Somebody is supporting the $137 level... At least for now! Cuz once it breaks the 134-137 box then no stop until 125-120
The AH volume is pathetic @ 170 K... Which eludes the fact that the institutional players are not involved. So, the real tell would be how it trades tomorrow... But, either way looks like a gap down might be result based on the current levels. But if gaps below the $134 level then some technical selling will take this down to $125 ish level in no time. Let us see how it trades for the next couple of hours first...