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Lee Enterprises, Incorporated Message Board

pipbustergreen 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 2, 2014 3:46 PM Member since: Nov 28, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Refinancing Complete

    by pipbustergreen Apr 1, 2014 10:49 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Apr 2, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    I think LEE will trade back in the $5 range near term and break above $6/share sometime in 2014. With LEE's finances essential set for the next 8 years, it gives analysts the clarity to more appropriately put a valuation to the company.

    Doing a discounted cash flow analysis on LEE's finances going forward, if I assume 3% revenue decline in 2014 and then stabilizing going forward, I get a DCF valuation of about $9/share (nearly 100% upside). If I assume revenues fall 3% for the next 8 years, I get a DCF valuation of about $7/share. Either way, LEE is undervalued at today's stock price. If LEE's management can extract more value from digital and circulation to off set the print decline, they should be able to grow revenue IMO. Time will tell. LEE is a virtual monopoly in most of their markets and this is not going to change anytime soon.

    I see LEE is announcing earnings next Tuesday, April 8 before the bell opens. This is about two weeks earlier than they normally would announce. Maybe some more positive news they want to get out early.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen Apr 1, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    LEE finalized the new financing yesterday that will extend the debt eight years out with most of the interest exposure locked. Now management can concentrate on growing revenue again. LEE should head higher as the shares are currently undervalued considering the company will earn $0.50-60/share ex-items this year. Nice to see the warrants issued for the $4.19/share pricing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Premarket huge pop

    by sandiegoman99 Mar 14, 2014 8:46 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Mar 14, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    Gold is up over $10/oz again today, over $1,380/oz. Headed over $1,400/oz in the next week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    1st Q Earnings Expectations

    by uklb51 Mar 11, 2014 6:25 PM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Mar 12, 2014 1:20 PM Flag


    Analysts have been moving estimates of profitability down in recent months as they assumed gold would continue to slide as it did last year and subsequently had been downgrading IAG. The current average analyst's estimate for the year is $0.14/share. Most of these estimates were likely made when gold was less than $1,300/oz. and on the downward trend.

    With gold currently headed higher, based upon a price of $1,350/oz. and using IAG's guidance, I get earnings at $0.38/share for this gold price, so IAG is trading at a P/E of 10x forward earnings, very cheap. As the sector normally trades at a P/E of 15x, IAG is currently undervalued by 50% in my estimation right now. As gold heads higher as I think it will, this undervaluation will become more extreme. Eventually, analysts will start to upgrade IAG and the stock will head much higher as markets always correct themselves.

    The market is giving us a gift by selling IAG at these levels. Buy it while you can.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Feb 28, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    They have not announced the date. Last year they released earnings on March 14 with the semi-annual dividend announcement made on March 12. I would expect both to be announced in similar timing this year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    PDF of Presentation posted on Hero's website

    by smokeymullet Feb 25, 2014 4:10 PM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Feb 25, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    Agreed. I like the fact that they have a record level of backlog at $1 Billion in revenue. You also have to like the tightening supply/demand aspects within the sector. This dynamic will continue to push up day rates higher and profitability will continue to improve. In light of this presentation, I can see why members of the management team were recent buyers of the stock. HERO is likely going higher over the long term.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen Feb 25, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Nice. Last time it traded at this price was the summer of 2008 before the market fell apart. Since then LEE has paid down over $1/2 billion in debt. Should hear about the loan refinancing soon which will likely push the share price higher. With earnings likely greater than $0.50/share this year, still room to the upside on the share price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    IAG Book Value $9.75 Is that correct?

    by storm77712 Feb 21, 2014 9:04 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Feb 21, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    No. In the just released earnings report this week, they wrote all of their goodwill off and also wrote down some mining assets. Book value currently stands at $7.63/share, well above the current $4.00/share price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen Feb 16, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    Barron's this weekend had a bullish article on gold and miners saying it is time for investors to start to look more closely at the metal and miners. They point out that the GDX has moved over its 200 day average for the first time since December 2012 which they take as a bullish sign. They cite buying in China is one possible sources of the recent upward momentum. Market Edge changed their opinion on IAG this weekend and give the stock a "LONG" rating. Gold is up again today in Asian trading at $1,322/oz. Look for upward momentum to continue this week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by pjv2xyw9dww4b5 Feb 6, 2014 9:08 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Feb 9, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    This was definitely a good start to the year. With TTM earnings ex items currently at $0.50/share, I see LEE easily doing $0.50-0.60/share in earnings (ex items) in the upcoming fiscal year despite revenues still sliding. The reduced interest costs and continued cost reductions should help earnings tick up slightly as we move forward. Although my projection estimates revenues to decline 3% this year, the continued double digit digital growth is very encouraging. And if they can finally monetize the St. Louis property via pay walls, revenue may actually start to trend upwards as we get to the back half of the fiscal year. With the positive earnings and continued strong cash flows coupled with successful refinancing of their debt well into the future (past 2020), I think the Street might start to see LEE in a more positive focus as they have virtual monopolies in most of their local markets. LEE is very undervalued at $3.88/share.

    Q2 will be the least profitable quarter of the year, but I still think LEE can be breakeven ex items in this quarter. We will find out in April.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    refinancing news

    by pjv2xyw9dww4b5 Feb 3, 2014 9:19 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Feb 4, 2014 10:46 PM Flag


    The warrants are for 6 million shares, not a set dollar amount. Even with the 10% dilution this results in, the improved financing of the 2nd lien and the expected refinancing of the 1st lien will prove beneficial to the company. Even with factoring in the share dilution and a 3% reduction in revenue in fiscal 2014, I see LEE earning between $0.50-0.60/share this upcoming year. As they continue to pay down debt at a faster pace with the lower interest rates and focusing on paying the higher interest debt, earnings should improve in subsequent years. The shares are extremely undervalued at the current price.

    Sentiment: Buy

4.21+0.20(+4.99%)Apr 17 4:03 PMEDT

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