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Lee Enterprises, Incorporated Message Board

pipbustergreen 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 21, 2014 7:42 PM Member since: Nov 28, 2005
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  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen Nov 21, 2014 7:42 PM Flag

    Nice. With about 2.5 M shares short and a 6 M float, this stock will continue to grind higher on the low number of shares being traded daily. Would not be surprised if it breaks $12/share before the end of the year. The 4th quarter is when BTH makes most of their profits. Looks like the market is expecting this quarter to be above expectations, particularly with the drag of Visalus gone.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen Jun 27, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    Looks like someone short was hoping for more selling action in conjunction with the Russell reconstitution. Did not happen and had to cover like mad in the final minute. Volumes will likely be back to low volumes next week as the force selling due to BTH being dropped by the S&P and Russell are complete.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen Jun 22, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    This weekend's edition of Barrons has an article on gold and based on their analysis they say gold has hit bottom and that investors should start nibbling by buying gold again. They mention IAG as a potential miner for investors to look at when getting back into gold.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Jun 20, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Agreed. Picked some up at $4.46.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Here we go again

    by entercom_1 Jun 19, 2014 4:44 PM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Jun 19, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Let's see what gold does tomorrow. If gold is up again, I would think IAG will make up for the disappointment of today. Also, if gold is still surging, people short may cover positions ahead of the weekend.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Volume picking up while...

    by u12thinkso Jun 18, 2014 4:27 PM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Jun 18, 2014 10:01 PM Flag

    Forced selling by funds as BTH will be dropped out of the both the Russell 2000 and 3000 at the end of the month. I expect the selling to continue the next few weeks with a new 52 week being establish during that timeframe. How low will it go is the question?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Jun 14, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    Would not surprise me if they did with the stock unloved and underappreciated. American Greetings controlling family did the same thing last year and paid a 50% plus premium over the 52 week low. Here CVSL made a bid at $16.75/share late last year, so one would think the family would have to bid at least that to take it private. Would be nice, but we will see.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Russell Reconstitution

    by pipbustergreen Jun 3, 2014 8:51 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Jun 14, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Looks like LEE will be added to the Russell 3000 going forward. They should be included in the index starting after the close on June 30.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BTH being replaced by BOBE

    by u12thinkso Jun 3, 2014 6:38 PM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Jun 3, 2014 6:49 PM Flag

    With the Russell Reconstitution being announced next week (June 13), I would not be surprised if BTH is dropped out of the Russell 2000 as well. With their current market cap, they might also get dropped from the Russell 3000 as well, but not as likely. More forced selling still to come. Good buying opportunities ahead if you are a long term investor.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen Jun 3, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    At the end of next week, Russell will announced proposed changes to their index listings with their annual reconstitution. With the increase of LEE's market cap over the last year, I would not be surprised if LEE is added to the Russell 3000 index. If added, funds that follow this index will be adding LEE. We will find out after the market close on June 13.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Oh, Oh, Gabeli Buying in, big jump in price today

    by onej723 May 23, 2014 9:30 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen May 23, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    He has been buying slowly adding to his funds over time. He just exceeded 5% per the filing with the SEC yesterday. The filing showed GAMCO held 220K shares, Gabelli Funds 477K shares and Teton 115K, all of which Mario Gabelli runs. There numbers are all up from this holdings he had reported for the March 31 quarterly filing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen May 22, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    Looks like Mario likes BTH at these prices. As a value investor, he will likely keep on adding to his positions across his various funds.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lower or Higher Gold Come Sept?

    by sandiegoman99 May 12, 2014 1:57 PM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen May 13, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Gold prices will go up long-term. Here is a quote from Sandstrom CEO Nolan Watson that meshes with how I see gold:

    "The vast majority of the world’s gold is not being bought by Americans any more. It used to be, but not any more. There are a number of relevant factors. The largest factor right now is the Chinese market, followed by Indian market, then other Asian countries, then the United States, and then the rest of the world.

    What I think is going on is the U.S. is a mass liquidation of gold that is being bought by the rest of the world. If that liquidation continues, I think the rest of the world will continue to buy America’s gold and they will be happy to do so. If the U.S. decides one day to stop selling its gold in ETFs [exchange traded funds] and various funds, then I think you’re going to see the price of gold go up when that supply from the U.S. decreases."

    Gold dropped last year significantly as Americans were selling out of ETFs. When that sell stops, prices will head back up as the supply/demand curves move. If China buys 30% more gold than last year in 2017 as the World Gold Council predicts, gold will like be above $2,000/oz. in a couple of years. I am a long term investor so I could careless about short term moves. If gold trades at this level in a few years, IAG will be trading in the $20+/share range. A lot of upside for the patient investors.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    2nd Quarter Results

    by pipbustergreen May 8, 2014 10:30 PM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen May 11, 2014 10:48 PM Flag

    JR,

    Even though LEE earned $0.05/share to SSP losing $0.01/share, there are several differences to consider:
    1) SSP has 4 analysts covering them who were projecting they would lose $0.12/share in the quarter. SSP blew away expectations. Zero analysts cover LEE, so there was little to benchmark against. The company does not offer forward guidance.
    2) SSP revenues grew in the quarter versus LEE’s revenue continuing to decline. SSP has television properties that allowed revenues to grow. SSP does see newspaper revenues flat for the upcoming quarter. Their newspaper revs were down only 1% versus 4% at LEE for the recent quarter.
    3) SSP is nearly net cash positive whereas LEE is still burdened by the large amount of debt from the failed Pulitzer purchase. SSP is able to use their free cash flow to buy back shares, while LEE continues to pay back debt holders. With the EBITDA being generated by the Pulitzer properties last year, LEE paid the equivalent of 40x EBITDA (A definite failure).
    4) SSP has almost all of their shares being held by insiders (33%) or institutional investors (64%). Insiders and institutionals hold only about 40% of LEE. SSP is a little more loved by the Street.

    I think LEE will continue to pay down debt aggressively and earnings will continue to improve. With the debt financing finally in place, management has no excuses not to be able to focus on turning revenues. Eventually, Wall Street will notice this little company in Davenport is undervalued.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen May 8, 2014 10:30 PM Flag

    LEE posted a profit of $0.05/share ex items in their most difficult revenue quarter of the fiscal year, in spite of revenue declining 4.1%. When you consider Easter was later this year, they will see the positive benefit in the current quarter which will boost Q3 results. I still see LEE earning in the $0.50-0.60/share range (ex items) for the full fiscal year. When you consider they will be paying down debt to the tune of $70-80M per annum, the interest savings garnered coupled with the digital subscription pay initiative will have a positive impact on earnings going forward. I venture that they will earn better than $0.60/share in fiscal 2015 even if print continues to decline. With their financing secure for the next 8 years, there is no real risk of default given LEE's strong cash flow. The stock is undervalued by 50% at a $4.15/share price IMO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen May 2, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    First finally decided to charge for their digital content in your biggest market and now having an earnings conference call after not having one in forever. Is LEE actually trying to join the rest of the corporate world in doing things to give the investing community more information to make their equity more attractive? What next, forward guidance? I guess we will see next Thursday.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • LEE is finally going to monetize the St. Louis Post-Dispatch on-line. Digital subscribers will pay $13.50/month for full access to all digital products.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Refinancing Complete

    by pipbustergreen Apr 1, 2014 10:49 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Apr 2, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    I think LEE will trade back in the $5 range near term and break above $6/share sometime in 2014. With LEE's finances essential set for the next 8 years, it gives analysts the clarity to more appropriately put a valuation to the company.

    Doing a discounted cash flow analysis on LEE's finances going forward, if I assume 3% revenue decline in 2014 and then stabilizing going forward, I get a DCF valuation of about $9/share (nearly 100% upside). If I assume revenues fall 3% for the next 8 years, I get a DCF valuation of about $7/share. Either way, LEE is undervalued at today's stock price. If LEE's management can extract more value from digital and circulation to off set the print decline, they should be able to grow revenue IMO. Time will tell. LEE is a virtual monopoly in most of their markets and this is not going to change anytime soon.

    I see LEE is announcing earnings next Tuesday, April 8 before the bell opens. This is about two weeks earlier than they normally would announce. Maybe some more positive news they want to get out early.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • pipbustergreen by pipbustergreen Apr 1, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    LEE finalized the new financing yesterday that will extend the debt eight years out with most of the interest exposure locked. Now management can concentrate on growing revenue again. LEE should head higher as the shares are currently undervalued considering the company will earn $0.50-60/share ex-items this year. Nice to see the warrants issued for the $4.19/share pricing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Premarket huge pop

    by sandiegoman99 Mar 14, 2014 8:46 AM
    pipbustergreen pipbustergreen Mar 14, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    Gold is up over $10/oz again today, over $1,380/oz. Headed over $1,400/oz in the next week.

    Sentiment: Buy

LEE
3.50+0.13(+3.86%)Nov 26 4:02 PMEST

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