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Noble Corp. Message Board

pismire_03 81 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 10 minutes ago Member since: Mar 12, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Over 1 million in after hour trading...

    by hawktim17 2 hours 41 minutes ago
    pismire_03 pismire_03 2 hours 10 minutes ago Flag

    check my post at 5:15

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 2 hours 12 minutes ago Flag

    I think they are messing with NE, NE-WI and PGN-WI. Come Friday morning you might just see the "WI" as the only active symbols. Sooooo, it just might be that the WI's take the hand. I would expect NE to be steady at $32.42 until 8/4 when the WI's become NE and PGN.
    J.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 4 hours ago Flag

    uncertain is the word. If you sell or buy "NE" up to the distribution date (8/1) at the NE market price, I would expect you are selling/buying both NE-WI and PGN-WI, if PGN-WI is stripped from our trade, then the clearing house should reduce the $$ and change the symbol from "NE" to NE-WI. The read it as "NE" is equal to "NE-WI+PGN-WI" up to closing on 8/1 or opening 8/1 depends when the exchange makes the switch.
    J

  • Reply to

    See how arbitrage works

    by pismire_03 Jul 23, 2014 5:41 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 8 hours ago Flag

    Not happy... Don't know the detail of the Fleet Status Report as I don't keep tabs on DO. The "horse is out of the barn" and all the analyst are slamming all drillers, so not much to do other than play the "waiting" game. It never ends.
    I have been looking over NE Fleet Status and my forecast to see if I miss anything. The street is at 1,180B and I am looking at 1,241B revenue. The key will be unreported downtime.
    IMUHO
    J.

  • Reply to

    See how arbitrage works

    by pismire_03 Jul 23, 2014 5:41 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 23, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    My view of after hour trading for NE is useless. Some of the trades are corrections, others are between two accounts same person, others are wee amounts just to drive the stock one way related. I have ignored the OH for years. Once I was concerned but when I looked at the trades they were just "junk trades". Stick to the normal trading sessions, we are not "market makers" NE is too small to draw any conclusions from them unless they are results of a News Release.
    J.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Jul 23, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    You are being given a gift on how the "in the know", "market makers" and "computer trading" works.
    You can get really frustrated with a set of stocks just looking and each one individually, but miss viewing them collectively as a one family.
    NE closed at $33.18 and its replacement NE-WI closed at $29.19. lets say a $ 3.99 difference which would be the value of 1/3 of PGN when it issues as 1/3 the number of PGN shares will be issued for NE stock. So the delta from PGN-WI is computed to equal $.03 gain to the holders of PGN and NE.
    Or 12.00-(( 33.18-29.19)=3.99)*3) = .03 net gain. Not worth it for us small investors.
    The current price of PGN-WI does not indicate what PGN will end up trading during and closing on Monday August 4th. That will be determined by the exit plans of the arbitragers and what the market thinks of what PGN management have to say about its future business..
    IMUHO
    J.

  • Reply to

    July 30th earnings

    by woodfrog8 Jul 23, 2014 12:35 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 23, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Frog, as of 6/30 NE was still one company, so I expect to see the 3month Q2 as NE with a forecast for Q3/4 based on NE without Paragon. I would Paragon to be in with NE CC if not then maybe a CC for Paragon only.
    NE might must address the time period from 6/30 to 7/31 as combined business. NE might give a breakout of PGN for Q3 and outline the transfer of the BS to PGN.
    We should receive a packet from NE with financials of NE and PGN next week.
    J.

  • Reply to

    PGN share basis

    by turbofinance Jul 22, 2014 5:59 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 22, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    The company should sent out the cost basis on PGN which is a reduction of your cost basis in NE.
    If the company neglects, this the cost basis is the average of the 1st day of trading (4th of August) first and close.
    IMUHO
    J.

  • Reply to

    PGN when-issued at $12.50?

    by djp5625 Jul 21, 2014 6:38 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 22, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    they could build a case to sell some and reinvest in newer rigs. The should have the cash if the market turns as the companies have said.
    The $1.00 is only a guess based on what is being reported from the talkers.

  • Reply to

    PGN when-issued at $12.50?

    by djp5625 Jul 21, 2014 6:38 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 22, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    Yes, without current cost input from PGN, Note that at 12 with a forecast of 3.3PE it comes back to 3.5+ EPS. The market thinks PGN is like HERO which it is not. I am having a hard time holding back on adding just PGN looking at a 8% yield with a $1.00 dividend. I don't think PGN will sit with old rigs that long.
    J

  • Reply to

    PGN when-issued at $12.50?

    by djp5625 Jul 21, 2014 6:38 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 22, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    PGN paid 1.1B for the rigs which leave about 2B in debt or other items if you take the 3.5B Lib&Equity for 12/31. If you take the equity and div by 84m you get 17.80 which is about the open price for PGN-WI.
    NE can pay off the notes in chunks + prepayment penalties.
    I wonder if a $10 offer would fly today.
    J

  • Reply to

    PGN when-issued at $12.50?

    by djp5625 Jul 21, 2014 6:38 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 21, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    Jumped the gun per SEC filing. We have no idea what the company said the valuation is for PGN. I think this is the market makers jumping out ahead of the sellers. I don't understand how they would value PGN at $ 4.00 with out any info from the company. I was drooling when I saw the close. I was out until late today so couldn't do anything. This might say to us that X-dividend was 7/21 which would be he normal 2 Bdays.
    J.

  • Reply to

    Typhoons

    by dugas.daniel Jul 20, 2014 12:37 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 21, 2014 12:59 AM Flag

    Yea, what ever. The company has the 23rd as the record date. X-div date could be the 25th or 21st, or the 18th as one poster said. We know that NE and PGN will start trading WI after the 23rd sometime up through the 1st which is the dividend (distribution) date and then on the 4h the WI goes away. If you buy or sell NE prior to the 23rd you sell/buy your right to PGN. If you sell or buy WI no right are attached. It will be like NE-WI and PGN-WI. The x-date could be depended on the broker or what ever. IF you are hot to sell PGN, then sell the PGN-WI on the 23rd or 24th when they appear in your account, or buy.
    IMUHO
    J

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 17, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    Clear as mud... There is nothing in the 7/11 SEC8K about 22%, that BS comes from Seeking Alpha incompetent summary of the spin-off. The actual asset value will be determined by the company soon.

    But that is your opinion.

  • Reply to

    NE and PGN estimates

    by pismire_03 Jul 16, 2014 11:31 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 17, 2014 12:51 AM Flag

    We don't know what NE has valued PGN yet so the 25/75 is only an approximation based on 12/31/14 proforma Balance Sheets.
    I expect it to be close in price +or- a few $.
    The trading price on day one could be like an "E-ticket" ride or just flat with only a few cent movement. The big funds are the major players and they could move the stocks.
    It will be interesting to watch.

    I do like the potentials of both companies,
    J.

  • Reply to

    NE and PGN estimates

    by pismire_03 Jul 16, 2014 11:31 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 16, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    No its 8 times 3 = 24 you have 1/3 the number of shares. Its like $1.10 at $8 if it was a 1 for 1, but it was a 1 for each 3 shares of NE.

  • Reply to

    NE and PGN estimates

    by pismire_03 Jul 16, 2014 11:31 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 16, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    I would expect it to be 75% off the current price which would be the price of both companies at the open.
    J

  • Reply to

    They did it PGN on NYSE

    by pismire_03 Jul 11, 2014 6:05 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 16, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    NE and PGN "WI" will list on the NYSX soon after the 23rd of July. You will have to add it to the stock list. The shares will list in the brokerage account when ever they are ready to do so. I don't think the "WI" will list unless you trade them as "WI".

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Jul 16, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    interesting...
    What would NE and PGN earnings look like if the split was as of 1/1/14.
    PGN
    Revenue: 1.9B
    Op cost: 1.4B
    Net income 300mm
    EPS 3.53 Or about 3.20 to 3.60 (see below).
    NE
    Revenue: 3.3B
    OP cost: 2.2B
    Net income: 800mm
    EPS 3.05. 3.00-3.50 (see below)

    Not available in hard $ what transfers from NE to PGN were made. This means that the estimate is based on last year's split info. I am expecting significant changes in interest expense and DDA,

    If the business continues as is for both companies (market firms up some) then revenue will be up most significantly for NE and some for PGN. PGN would have a 10 to 20 % growth, not bad, and NE would have a 25-35% growth in revenue and earnings. PGN would be cash rich and I would hope they pay down the expense debt and pass some out to the shareholders. NE would have more cash but less per share.

    I plan to hold both companies rather the try to trade them unless I hear some unsettling comments from the CC 8/1. I am assuming the it will be a joint CC or maybe two. One for NE and one later for PGN. The web site for PGN is a little limited at this time.
    IMUHO
    J.

  • Reply to

    NE Short Interest

    by woodfrog8 Jul 15, 2014 9:21 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jul 15, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    Yes, unless they decline to pay the div. when it is declared. If you go short NE you are short PGN also. Most of the time a short on split are buys you are short one and long the other as in arbitrage. I don't think it applies here. NE is short because the shorts like NE short thinking it will go down, the options have a floor of 28-32.
    I am ignoring the shorts because they will have to cover as NE goes from 24 to 34. I have NE making good $ after spin-off if downtime reduction continues. That's just me. I feel cold in middle of summer when 99% of the scientist say we caused global warming with all our "hot air". Why is it so cold today?
    J.

NE
32.42-0.76(-2.29%)Jul 24 4:01 PMEDT

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