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Noble Corp. Message Board

pismire_03 158 posts  |  Last Activity: 33 minutes ago Member since: Mar 12, 2003
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  • pismire_03 pismire_03 33 minutes ago Flag

    Yes, that does bring the cost up and profits down .50 to 60 cents. What going to be the trend. The tax men are working something I hope. May no be as bad as you think, still not worth the fall. Somewhere this must have been known and it was never reported before now. I will need to back and look and the files.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 12 hours ago Flag

    Check the SEC filings and it will give info on the splits and PGN split 1st 6 months.
    I would not be too excited on the detail for the 6 months, it is a little to good. You need to wait for Q3 to get a feel and Q4 to see how both companies are doing. The keys are rigs, contracts and downtime.
    The chicken-littles are running for the exits giving to credence to factual data only daily movement in price of oil.

  • Reply to

    PGN/NE split

    by apdplus Sep 1, 2014 8:03 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Sep 1, 2014 6:14 PM Flag

    Just some notes
    The additional debt is $.4bil (1.9 to 2.3)
    Earnings was 40% of Q2
    Not all cash is free, they could buy all out standing stock, but the we would not have anything to complain about.
    I do hope they are going to double, YES.

    Assuming the 3rd qtr is for real, and the 4th is true, then PGN is looking at low 4.00 Earning Per Share.
    The unknowns are Interest, G&A and marginally CD cost. I assume the revenue is as noted on the Fleet Status report of 8/4.
    I will revise it after 9/15 and final following Oct Fleet Status Report.
    Do tune in to the CC on 9/3 at 3:45 EDST


  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Aug 29, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    PGN as submitted an income statement to the SEC of about $2.47 for the 6 months ending June 2014. This excludes interest exp of about 30m. I would expect it to be met with Oh at the CC Sept 3rd. (really they say).
    The point is when the rigs are working PGN will make good money.

  • Reply to

    oh oh, SDRL misses

    by thedubb Aug 27, 2014 8:08 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 27, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    They beat by $.40+ about 1.24 for the qtr. est. was .76 from the 'talkers".

  • Reply to

    Zacks Can't talk its way out of this

    by pismire_03 Aug 25, 2014 3:20 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 26, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    Turbo, very difficult to forecast out to 2016 given the limited data points from NE net of PGN. I have 2015 in the 4.40 range and 2016 4.60s without a clear view of downtime net of PGN. Gross revenue is increasing to about 4.5b in 2016. I will be about to give better numbers after Q3 is reported.

  • "Noble Corporation (NE), the leading contract drilling company, has reported second-quarter 2014 earnings of 91 cents per share. The results surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents and was higher than the year-ago quarter earnings of 63 cents.", Zacks July 31st.

    Just one more "talker" that does not have clue about the offshore drilling industry. You can't be an Analyst and miss so often and be noted as source to go to for reports about companies. Classify as "talker".

    So what is the latest from Zacks? Is that why the market is selling off drillers?

    I refuse to give Zacks my e-mail address for a "new" report.

    Yes, I could read it and send a message back as to why they are wrong, I did that with Seeking Alpha, and they would not post the "errors" that I noted and the nut was so far off base, you could trash the whole report just keeping his name and closing, that would give you the most info.

    Tired of junk reports.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Aug 21, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    Transocean reported the Aug Fleet Status summary, I don't plot RIG, but the summary was positive with RIG adding 78mm to its backlog based on new contracts.
    To me, it is just one more marker that the "sink hole" is not as deep as the "talkers" wish us to believe.
    Mexico has approved the joint ventures with private business so I would expect the GOM to get more rigs and action from the majors.
    Never a "dry hole" in the off shore business.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Aug 20, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    From the best information I could glean from the form 8 10Q it looks like NE paid down the Comm'l lines by 1.7B leaving 600mm which NE extended into 2015 should be paid off from operating cash flow even though they show it being paid off in 2017 before PGN shin-off. NE generates about 500m a quarter is cash per quarter on a go forward business plan. At the end of 2015, NE should have about 3.3B of debt and 500mm is cash. I am expecting some new slides from the 9/4 "talker" luncheon in NY.

  • Reply to

    Trading as if going bankrupt

    by goskiing99 Aug 19, 2014 5:14 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 19, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    You have seen this story before, 3/2009, take advantage of the will of market to throw away what they don't understand, coerced by all the "talkers", those not in the drilling business.

  • Reply to

    Is PGN that bad a company??

    by jhgrsrch Aug 18, 2014 11:08 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 19, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Might look at the balance sheet of SDRL and its on-order rig list without contracts, then say "how SDRL is going to buy NE".
    And where do you see the words that says "SDRL is looking to expand" with what? Burger King $$.

    Time to dump the "buyout? talk.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Aug 19, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    Yes, the boys at the exchange have linked the price of PGN to the price of NE because they "don't know" what to expect from PGN and when. We see Jackup contracts are being made, even NE had some extensions. PGN has been trading off NE, check the price spread, it about $3.00 to 3.50. Take the price of PGN 1/3 gives you the issue relationship to NE spin-off.

    PGN has not bolted to its "should be" price and it will not until PGN starts to give the "talkers" something to talk about, like forecast, contracts and dividend into. And cut the form 4 junk until you take care of shareholders. I feel y'all have about three months to make your buys. If you are a seller and need to loss, go for it.

  • I wonder what justification the "talkers" will provide the readers of their discourse when NE exceeds the EPS by the usual 40+% for Q3/4. You can add 2015 also. If you take all the rigs with contracts only, you still get EPS for 2015 of well over 3.00. I see maybe three rigs that might be warmed stacked sometime in 2015.

    The "talkers" are so hell bent on reporting a significant down turn, egos will surely conger up something.
    You can hold off offshore projects for a short time, but they will soon be back on the clock at higher day rates.

  • Reply to

    When might PGN announce a dividend?/

    by jhgrsrch Aug 16, 2014 11:14 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 17, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    For PGN, I am looking for mid 3.00 2014 (on full year proforma) and low 4.00 in 2015, assuming improvement in rig utilization I currently have 56% of the $$ contracted for 2015.

  • Reply to

    When might PGN announce a dividend?/

    by jhgrsrch Aug 16, 2014 11:14 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 16, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Cben, are you back in and part of PGN/NE these days? Not too many longs left.

    The dividend should be declared and paid in the the 4th quarter, so after Q3 earnings I would expect notice of.. The amount could be between 22-26 cents. I would go along with your $.25.

    Q3 might only be 2 months of a full 3 month quarter, so share price might still be low, If it is 1.00 per year, Paragon must move to 18 to 20 or higher depending on the summary from the company and contracts for 2015.


  • Reply to

    Large NE volume in the last two days!

    by apdplus Aug 16, 2014 5:32 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 16, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    that is interesting, where did you see it or post some details.

  • Reply to

    I suggest PGN followers look else where right now

    by pjhatbpi Aug 14, 2014 10:57 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 14, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    From that data of March 31, it looks like the value of NE/PGN for a 80/20 split giving PGN a 18 value and NE 26 (32-6=26) 3.5/17 = 20%

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Aug 14, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    Not a lot of changes. NE picked up 13mm in new adjustments and extensions increasing the EPS to .82 for Q3. If the contracts continue to come in and rates continue to say the same, NE will do well in the coming quarters.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 14, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    Who is speculating? Then you must have a company in US wishing to do this type of transaction. DO, basically owned by Loews (51%) so Loews would have to take over. Any large drillers left in US Over Taxed Nation?

  • Reply to

    PGN EPS first look

    by pismire_03 Aug 8, 2014 1:56 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 13, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    Well, we now have one "talker" that has come out with EPS for PGN which 1st call picked up
    EPS $.70 Q3
    Rev: NaN

27.47-0.99(-3.48%)Sep 2 4:00 PMEDT

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