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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

pismire_03 49 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 20, 2015 7:47 PM Member since: Mar 12, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Negative news

    by typea1949 Jun 20, 2015 8:24 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 20, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    I understand option trading and posters that have a bent for forcing interest in the movement of a stock for their gain either up or down, puts or calls. bty, a stock can be called away at anytime before the contract expire date.

  • Reply to

    Negative news

    by typea1949 Jun 20, 2015 8:24 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 20, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    I see,a reduced NE PPS reduces probability of options being called. Yep that's what I read. Why else would a person post something that has no basis in fact other than wishful thinking.

  • Reply to

    Fleet Status for June 2015

    by pismire_03 Jun 18, 2015 5:14 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 19, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    Could be. My thought was it is a short term lease, and why did the operator ask to withhold the rate. I must remember, the "analyst" are always "right" or is it "left". That price drops revenue by 5mm and a EPS by $.01.. One reason for the increase in revenue, Danny Boy was scheduled for 45 maint in June/July so we pushed that off and picked up some revenue and avoided maintenance cost until 3rd qtr.
    J

  • Reply to

    PGN bonds

    by xgrk88a Jun 5, 2015 10:36 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 19, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    Moody,s looking at the bond holders saying that the market is low balling the bonds so if you lend to PGN, you may not get back your principal, so why lend.

  • Reply to

    Pismire...I doubled down this morning

    by typea1949 Jun 18, 2015 12:20 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 18, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    YW and might have been a ok buy given the bad press from ESV, PCD and HERO. NE still is drilling holes and keeping most of the rigs going. I hope they continue to keep cost under control and unscheduled downtime to a minimum.

  • Reply to

    Fleet Status for June 2015

    by pismire_03 Jun 18, 2015 5:14 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 18, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    The changes in maintenance and Danny Boy will add about 11mm to the 2nd qtr revenue and $.02 or so to earnings, or maybe .01 with higher interest expense. I am still looking for high 50s for Q2, from ops. Excluding one time charges. I wonder how much NE will get from the scrap yard for the semi being retired or will China others buy them?

    J

  • One contract extension at "unkn" day rate, going with 350 It is for 2 months (Danny Boy). some shifting of maintenance between quarters, not much else.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Jun 18, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    HERO is going to file for Chp 11 July 8th giving 97% of the company to debt holders and gain some cash for a new build under construction. PCD is being pursued by ESV, SDRL and RIG for Merger no dice. Only the strong will last, it is getting worse.
    If the operators don't wise up soon, they will be hard pressed to get oil from offshore rigs. Maybe "pope/oboma" energy is ready for prime time, a prayer-delusional provides the feeling of moving across the roads and flying the blue heavens on Sprint Air. (:
    IMHUO
    J.

  • Reply to

    Added revenue 3mm

    by pismire_03 Jun 16, 2015 3:48 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 17, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    Has nothing to do with accounting gimmicks. The increase in revenue went to the bottom line. The accounting gimmicks will come in July when the "analyst" try to talk their way around one more eps estimate miss.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Jun 16, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    PGN from the FSR added 3 mm in revenue for the 2nd qtr and $.02 to earnings.
    The bottom is starting, then comes more rigs at low rates, then rollovers at higher rates followed with rigs shortages.

  • Reply to

    Explanation of deal this morning?

    by greedorfear Jun 4, 2015 10:05 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 4, 2015 10:44 PM Flag

    They should have about 100mm in cash flow for Q2. If the reset of the quarters come in good, they should be out from under the revolver, if not now. We still have a ways to go in this down cycle.

  • Reply to

    Pismire... a question

    by typea1949 Jun 3, 2015 10:56 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Jun 3, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    The current production from existing reservoirs will begin to give out requiring more wells to be drilled. We have to see a steady increase in world demand, absorb Iran oil, export USA oil and get an energy plan that works from Wash DC. (that's all).
    What should we expect... The majors will begin to feel out the drillers this fall for 2016-17 projects. I would expect to see a steady increase in rigs working from the "warm stacked" set, then a move for those "cold stacked", once that starts, the fun begins assuming WTI is above $100. Does it start in 2016 or 2017 or later, you don't know, but once it starts, it moves fast and most likely new money and some old money will miss the moves up not believing the numbers or just waiting for a pull-back. I would expect newbuilds to dry up soon with the shipyards eating the cost.
    IMUHO
    J.

  • Reply to

    Strange trading

    by jyoung01 May 26, 2015 1:27 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 May 26, 2015 4:38 PM Flag

    Makes sense that PEMEX, short of cash and execution, would turn a good portion of its exploration cost over to private groups, but they also limit future revenue streams. PGN has rigs that should meet the bill, but do they have the relationship needed with the new bidders, maybe PGN would bid on one of the blocks.
    J

  • Reply to

    For Frog

    by pismire_03 May 21, 2015 1:51 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 May 26, 2015 12:47 AM Flag

    ya, but if you don't have a tender from the operators you have a hard time responding with 85k rate.

  • Reply to

    For Frog

    by pismire_03 May 21, 2015 1:51 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 May 22, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    CB2527 The "collapse" is based on no future business; yet it keeps coming but at a slower pace and less revenue. The "analyst" or "talkers" have forecasts in the above noted ranges. My post was to quantify, put some numbers to the forecast, to see just what the "talkers" are telling the public what this company and others are going to do.
    To get to the "talkers" numbers, you have to eliminate all new and extended contracts, which are not going to happen unless we all begin to live on boats.
    The drillers are beginning to get inquiries from the operators on available rigs and rates. This is the first step before tenders begin to arrive from the operators. I say we have bottomed out and are beginning to start the long climb back to "normal" .
    IMUHO
    J

  • Reply to

    For Frog

    by pismire_03 May 21, 2015 1:51 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 May 21, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    Based on today's available business data and world need for oil, I give it a 98% survival. A 2% for POTUS and climate change causing massive rising oceans which swallow all the rigs.
    IMUHO
    J.

  • Reply to

    For Frog

    by pismire_03 May 21, 2015 1:51 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 May 21, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    Note that total revenue drops to 750mm in 2016 from 1.6B in 2015. I give this a 1 to 2,000 chance of occurring.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 May 21, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    Looking at the worst possible case for PGN for 2016 and it looks difficult at best. The business model for Jackup drillers is based on short term contracts in shallow waters. These units are generally contracted between 6 and 24 months. The day rates are adjusted each time to the current market conditions and well structures.
    I am assuming the whole offshore drilling business has collapsed and we are under some sever world natural event as noted by our leader.
    PGN will survive 2015 with a profit and good cash flow noting the debt requirement are met.
    PGN for 2016 will also survive but wounded with a 2.00 loss and a 150mm positive cash flow.
    I have assumed no new and extended contracts with about the same % rates and cost structure.
    Debt payments start in 2019.
    IMUHO
    J

  • Reply to

    Rig Report out Thursday

    by woodfrog888 May 15, 2015 9:09 AM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 May 15, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    Frog, it looks like a $.23 hit for the year but adds some revenue for 2016. NE might have an error in the dates for 2016, but no material impact on the business. Q2 we are somewhere in the high 50s to low 60s depending on cost structures. I can't get excited about any of the drillers for the rest of 2015, but 2016 is looking up. Rigs are being junked and demand is coming close to supply, oil is on the march to mid 70s or 80 early 2016 which will increase demand for rigs. PEMEX is in trouble. Can't pay for needed services, personnel changes and politics.
    If anyone ran out of room stuffing cash in there mattress, might think about buying some drillers at these gift prices.

    J

  • Data from the company is becoming more solid, that is, without so many one-time things.
    Actual to Forecast for Q1 2015
    Revenue: 400A vs 398F
    Reimb Exp 24A vs 25F
    Labor Serv 7A vs 8F
    Total Revenue 431A vs 431F

    CD cost 225A vs 231F
    Reimb Exp 20A vs 21F
    Labor Cst 6A vs 6F
    DDA 90A vs 87F
    SGA 15A vs 14F
    Total Cost: 356A vs 359F (Exlds 21 million gains)
    Op income 75A vs 72F
    Interest Net -27A vs -30F
    IBT 48A vs 42F
    Taxes 6A vs 7F
    EPS $.40A VS .40F
    One time gains 21.1 or $.21 to .22 resulting in a reported $.69
    A really good quarter given the state of drilling.
    I would expect Q2 to be in the $.32 without one-times and any new contracts.
    IMUHO
    J.

NE
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