OR doing what it says it does, find work for them rigs...
The fastest way to go under is to ignore what business you are in. I don't think oil is going the way of the buggy whip. PGN has a superb operating cost structure and can withstand some revenue decline in day rates.
If you factor loss of working rigs and look for bankruptcy, then sell and get out.
The offshore drilling business in not the same as onshore or retailer. Operators make long-term plans and look beyond the day to day swings in oil prices. The price of oil will not stay under $100pb much longer..
Difficult to debate a story filled if assumptions and wishful thought. To support your fictional narrative, you needed put some numbers to support the upstream cost of oil extract or what is the replacement for oil. So, stay with your story and maybe it will come true.
Well, welcome to the real word of buying stocks or selling short stocks in the USA. Sometimes you must look at the Macro world and make your buys when the world is "up-side-down". When your company that you wish to buy into, is in a business that has demand and is needed for living, you buy when it is hated and sell when it is loved. Your only down side is that you hope the company does not get bought out at pennies on the dollar or sinks in the cyclical storm.
Feelings are for lovers, not stocks. Facts rule. If any of these new stockholders sell more than 20% of the optioned stock without holding a lot of share afterwards, this would be bad for PGN.
bad idea, triple damages The driller have firm contracts, pay now or later x3. Most of the time they negotiate a lower Idle day rate with the operator. Covers the fixed and variable cost with some profit.
I can't find anything elsewhere about the layoffs. From Pemex or others. Must be missing something.
Waiting for the Fleet Status report due Thursday to see what is going on.
At the bottom of the dribble was what I was looking for in the offshore drilling programs. As you noted, the company did tell us about the budget and drilling program. I just could not connect the "dots". I see and understand when you get "joint" ventures, some people may not be needed in the sort term until the wells start producing.
Pemex responded by reforming its exploration and production division in November to improve efficiency.
The layoffs “seem to come from a combination of falling oil prices and the effects of the energy reform,” Xperto Offshore’s Hill said.
NE has pushed off reporting Q4 until 2/4 which leads me to believe they have some issues to resolve with PGN spin-off. The Fleet Status Report later today. I am wondering if the slip in time would allow the company to buy more "cheap" stock so they can report a large reduction in number of shares for 2015 during CC.
If I was a trader, I might say "oil" is setting a bottom somewhere in the mid 40s looking to carry it back to the 70s and 80s. Traders are buying real "oil" and storing it, selling futures.
The Fleet Status was uneventful for new contracts, rigs or downtime. Given the steady performance of all contracted rigs and cold stacking of others, I have taken a positive outlook for the quarter.
NE had 29 of the 35 rigs working or ending contracts in the quarter. NE has 3 rigs cold stacked and 3 rigs warm stacked (available).
Summary for 4th Quarter. (in millions)
CD Rev. 842
Total Rev. 862.
CD cost 388 (could be lower)
Operating cost 594
Interest net expense 47
Income tax 40
Net income 163
EPS $.65 based on 252mm shares based on averaging of shares outstanding from buybacks.
Operating cash flow about $300mm for the quarter.
Yes, the numbers tend to show that. If the rigs were working 24/7 then it will be close to my estimate taking into account reported major down time.
First Quarter will not be as strong give the rigs going off contract, so the "talkers" will have fun with that issue.
I do assume that we are seeing a rolling bottom for oil give the reduction in oil output from the US.
I also expect others to get the message and cut back to drive the price backup up to break-even.
The report looked good, but still rigs are not working.
The company moved some maint. from Q4 to Y15 which had a nice improvement in revenue.
They sold one rig in Jan 2015.
My est. for Q4 is
Op cost 386
Tax 5 (who knows)
Net inc 96
EPS $1.09 adjusted to $1.21 with .12 for bond deals. (I think)
Still way to early to lock down the forecast. I would expect it to be off more than I would like, but that life.
I'll do the detail after they report (maybe early Feb).
First Quarter EPS for 2015, assuming little movement on idle rigs, is currently at $.61.
BUT, I do not have a lot of fact to support this number given the "if" that we don't know about. I go with what I know.
My personal feeling is Management is trying really hard to hold costs, keep rigs working and be proactive in running the business to satisfy its customers.
Was used for accommodation work and was not being used so someone got a base Jack up at a reduced price that PGN could not find work for.
Its all in the eye of the beholder and how many shares you have short or long.
If you need to access the PGN message board. Just under "Noble Corp. Message Board" is a tool bar with and data box "get message board for:" put PGN in box and hit "go" or press "enter"
If you are on PGN Summary page, go over to the chart and click on 1D chart, it will bring up the "interactive chart" and the message board link button is active and will take you to the message board.
As for as I know both Prospector rigs are currently on site and working at the agreed to day rate. Prospector will be included in the Dec. 2014, report.
ah, need to add some cost the the estimate for Q4. maybe 20mm
I have added 20mm to the "other" cost for Prospector given no info about "one-time" cost. Sounds like a good round number.
It reduces earnings to 77m and EPS to $1.00 (includes $.12 for bonds buyback) or $.88 net.
NE has stated that the dividend will not increase over the near term. The excess cash generated from operations will the used to buy back shares (37mm) and pay down debt as stated in the 3rd quarter CC by Williams. Means NE will save $60mm annually in cash and pay out $800 in buyback or 7.5% return on use of the excess cash generated in 2015 and 2016.
CapX will be about 450mm related to ongoing business. Last newbuild is coming in 2016 with about 400mm. Cash generated by the business should be about 3.1B for 2015+16. Intended outlays over the 2 year period, 900mm for existing capx + 400mm for new build and 600-800mm for stock buy backs giving about 2.1b in cash outflows for capital events. About 1000mm left to run the business and pay a dividend.
Just the published facts.
If you have proof of other issues, note them with sources.
It is a difficult time for the drillers and oil producers (up and down "creek"). But this will pass and you will be back talking about $200 oil is a year on two, unless be have a break through in converting CO2 into gas by recycling the used carbon.