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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

pismire_03 49 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 20, 2015 7:47 PM Member since: Mar 12, 2003
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  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Apr 18, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    Looks like my worksheets are close to what is being talked about on the street. I am not a big fan of the company's 7% unscheduled downtime, it could be overstated.

    Q1 Revenue total: 785m
    CD cost 354
    Dep 153
    SGA 24
    Op cost 553
    interest ex: 43
    Taxes 46
    Net income .127
    EPS .53 based on 241 share o/s


  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Apr 19, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    Given the limited tracking points for PGN the estimate could be over the street and under "Hope and Change"
    Revenue: 431m
    CD cost 231M
    DDA: 87
    SG&A 14m
    Operating cost: 359m
    Interest Exp. 30
    Taxes @30% 8m
    Earnings 34m, EPS $.40
    Cash from ops 121m

  • Reply to

    Q1 Forecast 2015

    by pismire_03 Apr 18, 2015 2:58 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 19, 2015 8:24 PM Flag

    I am posting my estimate on PGN today.
    Frog, The dividend should be safe until 2016, then it will be re-evaluated going forward.

  • Reply to

    Q1 Forecast 2015

    by pismire_03 Apr 19, 2015 8:21 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 20, 2015 12:21 AM Flag

    Most difficult to zero in on a set of numbers when the target is changing week by week. I assume a large difference in most cost until the end of 2015. My focus is on revenue based on active rigs and the corresponding rig operating cost. Out quarters are questionable until the business(es) are all back to normal and a bottom in oil has been posted.


  • I see a few of the guest are wondering why those drillers are doing so poorly when oil is moving up in contrast to the movement of the drillers when oil was moving down.
    Its really simple, if you need to look at the demand for the drillers product. The rigs (drillships, semisubmersibles, and Jackups) are contracted for project that take years to complete and months of negotiation before they have a binding contract for the rig from the operators. The demand is based on oil consumption rate vs availability of well head production. If the demand is 90mb per day and the wells are producing 91mb per day, then new wells are not needed. If it is the other way, then rigs are needed for new wells.

    You can get a good feeling for the drillers based on contracts, rate, duration and utilization. The "analyst" are always months behind what is going on in the industry, so if they all are down on the drillers, then the "bottom" is in, if all the "analyst" are up on the drillers, then the top is forming. You can never act on what the "analyst" are doing with down/up-grades. The "analyst" are always at the stern of the drillship looking at the wake as it goes by vs on the bow, observing the wave as the drillship slices through the water.

    If oil continues to move slowly up, then you will begin to see movement in rig contracts and utilization increase, followed by day rate increases and rig utilization to mid to high 90s. If you are interested in a driller, take a few hours to check out the Monthly Fleet Status Report and see what changes are being noted by the company and rig utilization each quarter and then make your investment. If you are a trader, good luck, the drillers can move up or down quickly.


  • Reply to


    by goskiing99 Apr 27, 2015 8:33 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 28, 2015 1:10 AM Flag

    You have a 1/2 of a point, the other half would not happen for contracts with the operators are solid and have heavy penalties if the operators break the contract other than failure of the driller to perform.
    Might take back a 1/4 as I have not read we have a replacement for oil. Below the surface of the oceans lie vast amounts of hydrocarbons waiting for the drill bit to find oil/gas. This is a cyclical business.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Apr 28, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    Taking a poke and adjusting revenue to 801mm and Net Income to 135mm with EPS of $.56. With less rigs working NE should have less unscheduled downtime. Could be wrong.

  • pismire_03 by pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    Adjusting forecast schedules assuming no new contracts or extensions, NE gross sales will be a little over 2.8b for 2016. Average of all analyst are 2.8b. Recalling many years following the drillers and the downturns, I can not recall once did RIG, GLM, ESV or others not have new or extended contracts even when oil reached 10pb. What is going on? The analyst must all be new, or they assume Obama oil has been found, or they don't give a hoot! They are not going to move until the drillers tell them they have some new contracts. Why should anyone pay these people for nothing.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    Nice job, your IQ is just about 72

  • Reply to

    Revised Q1 Forecast 2015

    by pismire_03 Apr 28, 2015 6:39 PM
    pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    As expected. Contract Drilling cost was about $40mm less than forecast resulting in $40mm increase in earnings. I assumed it would be less, but not this much. If NE keeps this rate up, the year and next will be exceptional given the oversupply of rigs vs the huge under demand for oil.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    Yes, but when I looked at the estimated unscheduled downtime, I was mystified as to why it was so high. Most all other numbers were within reason. Nice to see a good earnings report in such a poor demand for services from the operators.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    You have two reporting media, one is automated and the others is semi-intelligent The nuts reported Q1,2014 with the discontinued PGN business as Q1 2014 earnings and compared it to Q1 2015 as a miss.
    RoboDoc is going cause a lot of heart burn for casual investors.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    yes, that says it all

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    We good.
    The analyst will come out later with the correct comparison of $.72 for Q1 2015 to $.60 for Q1 2014 or a 20% increase in EPS and a slight increase in top line revenue of 9m.

  • Most all line items fell within a few million except CD Operating cost due to over estimated rig unscheduled downtime. I thought is was too high at the time and I did a small adjustment but not enough.

    Q1 2015A to Q1 2051F
    CD Revenue: 779A to 777F
    Reimb Exp: 25A to 25F
    Total Revenue: 804A to 802F
    CD operating Cost: 322A to 361F
    Reimb Exp: 20A to 21F
    DDA 154A to 153F
    Ops Cost 520A to 559F
    Ops Income: 284A to 243F
    Int Exp: 42A to 43F
    IBT: 242A to 200F
    Taxes: 43A to 48F
    Non Cntrl Intr: -20A to -17F
    Net Income: 178A to 135F
    EPS $.72A to .56F

    Cash gen: 178+154=332 IBITDA about 438.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 8:47 PM Flag

    Just like BO admits his mistakes, Hope and Change he/she did it not me.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 8:52 PM Flag

    Darshana Sankararaman in Bengaluru This is from Reuters, reporting a 30% decrease in earnings but they did not remove the .39c from earnings related to discontinued business. It is just ignorance on Reuters part.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 10:43 PM Flag

    Now a person has corrected (amplified) the EPS for NE comparing it to the correct Q! 2014.
    From Reuters.
    Net income from continuing operations rose to 72 cents from 60 cents a year earlier. In August, Noble completed the spin-off of Paragon Offshore Plc, which owns drilling assets that were previously part of Noble.

    When you get anything posted about a company you must check it out yourself with data from the company investor relations.

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Apr 29, 2015 10:51 PM Flag

    Yes, agree will said. Too many funds and too few investors.

  • Well Frog,
    Here is just one more example of a rush to report numbers without double checking the company published reports. Zacks missed estimates big time so they report incorrect unfavorable earning comparison from Q1 2014 to Q1 2015 to cover their poor forecast. The comparison of 2014 to 2015 should be $.72 for 2015 to $.60 for 2014 per NE Earnings Statement. You always take out the "one time charges and gains".
    From Zacks...
    "Noble Corporation NE, the leading contract drilling company, reported first-quarter 2015 earnings of 72 cents per share. The results comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents but deteriorated from the year-ago quarter earnings of 80 cents."

    Just one more corrupt company, goes hand in hand with Hillary's bribe-to-play concept.

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