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Jones Soda Co. (JSDA) Message Board

pitsel123 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2016 6:20 PM Member since: Oct 10, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Betting on the 80 yr old CEO's ego now...

    by bpear70 Jun 22, 2016 6:08 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 Jun 24, 2016 6:20 PM Flag

    the really good news is that I covered at 41 and made a nice return. I did not buy the stock as this has run up to crazy levels. Given them credit for taking advantage of a nice trend with the water brand. I have heard that the shasta intro has failed..... So now the question is what to do next. I don't see a sale because the cost is now too high. the brand has a revenue stream but I would bet that there are a lot of big retail and other suppliers going at this as fast as they can. they really don't have that much cash on the balance sheet so they could take some cash out with a div but it would only be meaningful if they went into debt, which they might do.... I could see a split but it does not really do anything. It still looks like the odds are better for a move down, but we saw in the last housing bubble it took a while for the markets to catch up with the crooks. I will just sit back and watch this one.

  • Reply to

    Betting on the 80 yr old CEO's ego now...

    by bpear70 Jun 22, 2016 6:08 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 Jun 23, 2016 3:36 AM Flag

    that makes a lot of sense. I think you are right. The thing is the stock is so overvalued and I am sure the other players in the market are getting ready to mount a big attack on La Criox. So how much more can it go up or is now the time to short the stock?

  • pitsel123 pitsel123 Jun 14, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    In theory you can build a plan that could potentially have this company become more relevant in the industry. They are an ongoing concern and have vendor relationships. they even will be a break even company to slightly profitable. The problem is that great idea's mean nothing if you don't have the infrastructure to make it happen. When you look back on when Jones was something and had a market cap in excess of $800m, they had a different management team and the support of a larger successful beverage company with some seasoned beverage pros. That is what is missing and until that changes Jones will not matter.....

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Earnings call

    by mrjbadisbad Apr 1, 2016 5:37 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 Jun 10, 2016 12:51 AM Flag

    I would not bet on this company. the brand is counter trend in the energy category, 10 years in the market place as energy has grown to 15bil from zero and they are doing 15m per year losing money. they added all this new management which is expensive and at the end of day not really very good. 92m market cap. Makes no sense. This is another Jones Soda. Nobody cares. Why would someone leave La criox when it is the fastest growing brand and the fizz stock has gone up 300% this year. Must have been a one way conversation.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Kroger

    by jeremy.kinsey1977 May 25, 2016 10:54 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 May 26, 2016 9:19 PM Flag

    There was 6000 shares traded today. That means someone spent $3600.00. Who cares? The rise and fall of Jones soda sounds like an interesting book or case study on how not to do it.........

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Let's have some fun and try to estimate the upcoming qtr ending June 30. I am thinking $6.5m in revs up 55% and net profit coming in at about 200k. This makes the stock fairly valued at .65 per share.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Wow! Lost 15% on Volume of 28,000 shares

    by tlwatson59 May 12, 2016 9:57 AM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 May 15, 2016 12:31 PM Flag

    What Jones has more than anything else is relationships with major retail, some infrastructure, financial relationships and now a starting to at least be a break even business as long as the 7-11 deal can hold up which I give it two cycles. What the board really needs to do is find
    a couple of really good managers to come in and take this for a ride. It is possible but not with the current team. If they had a better plan they could rise again. Other wise it is more of the same and at some point they just become a brand like Dads root beer carried by big lots and dollar tree.

  • Reply to

    Listen to the Negative Babble about

    by tlwatson59 May 10, 2016 12:19 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 May 11, 2016 12:05 PM Flag

    $500 million in cold cash????? she put in a couple of hundred thousand that she got when the company actually had a chance to be something when they had a plan to be relevant in the industry. Selling single bottles of soda and doing a private label for 7-11 in the grand scheme of things does not matter in the beverage business. Such as why the stock is going down and has this company valued at 20m

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Glad I stuck it out

    by jeremy.kinsey1977 May 5, 2016 5:31 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 May 5, 2016 5:53 PM Flag

    I don't know why you guys are getting all excited. The increase in revenue and profit is in line with the expectations of the 7-11 deal. We will see this kind of increase for the next 3 quarters until we have to over lap the numbers. The stock is fairly priced.

  • pitsel123 pitsel123 Apr 22, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    12%. Grab the profits while you can....... Going down.

  • pitsel123 pitsel123 Apr 22, 2016 9:03 AM Flag

    I agree with what you are saying about LA Criox. The issue is how things work. First, you have to look at the valuation, which is way to high based on the the sales of LC and the discounted value of the rest of the company. Next and most important is what the future holds. As these things go, a category expands rapidly. Well LC has been around for 20 years but recently it has caught on... So consumers are saying they want to switch out of high sugar sodas into no cal all natural water. Sounds like bottled water 10 years ago. What happened there? Early leaders in the space were selling a case of water for $6.00. Then the retailers looked at the cost structure and went into there own brands. Now you can buy a case of water for $3.00. It is still big and growing but dominated by private label. They use all the shelf space for there own brands. When you don't have any meaningful product difference as Cramer points out, this is what will happen. You will start to see very soon retaiers introduce there own brands and LC will get squeezed. First they will have drop the price, which will provide short term volume but hurt margins, then the distribution will drop and share will drop. Look at the history of Shasta and there energy drink they have. You cannot find them anywhere. So based on the fundamental story, the stock is over valued and this is a great short opportunity. It might take a few months but there is really no other way for it to go. They should be working on the next hing, but the CEO is old and most of the younger highly talented people have left. So where is the upside?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Don't Trust Cramer on FIZZ. Remember Jones.

    by janejacobsisright Apr 21, 2016 11:18 AM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 Apr 21, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    Jones soda is a story of greed and poor management. Cramer had good insight into the Jones opportunity and it could have been something. Between the Fizz management and the Jones management they blew it big time. This is just another reason why Fizz is going to drop and is overvalued.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • pitsel123 pitsel123 Apr 21, 2016 10:18 AM Flag

    Now the big drop is gaining. Down over 6% since the Cramer note. I have a buy in at 27. Crameamerica....... Got to love the free capital market system... Take the profits while you can. The funds will be dropping out soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • pitsel123 pitsel123 Apr 20, 2016 6:24 PM Flag

    Pretty sure everyone agrees that the VW deal that Coke did was not a good metic to use for valuing companies. Second, at that time VW was the only game in town as a functional drink of that kind. To compare plain sparkling water with a splash of flavor is insane. It also had a vast Direct to store network. La criox will be easy to take shots at. I don't agree with everything cramer says, but he is pretty darn good. He does not have a bone to pick at National beverage I am sure. The current value makes no sense. The brand will die within the company, it will never get sold. Caporal thinks it is worth more than it is so he will never sell it. It is not a good idea to invest in companies when one person owns 80 percent. Why is it even public. Shorted it at 45 after the cramer note. Looking for a good profit

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Great news!

    by bizniscards Mar 11, 2016 10:52 AM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 Apr 20, 2016 10:28 AM Flag

    The market is overbought and we are due for some down turn, this stock is way overvalued and does not make sense as Jim Cramer has pointed out. Insiders are pumping it up for what reason, ego.... Take profits now and start a short position. This baby is going to drop fast when it goes.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The real winner in the sparkling water category will be Cot beverages. They make all the private label drinks and they win in the low cost production game. As larger retailers want to offer value in this fast growing space they will gain a lot of sales and profits. This situation is no different than any other trend over the years. Even if you make a case that consumers like La Criox, they liked Shasta 20 years ago and you cannot find it anywhere except at stores like Dollar tree who buys things at cost. Same thing happened with the Rip it energy brand. So it is just a matter of time.

  • Reply to

    Cramer Pumping This Garbage

    by bee.burger Apr 18, 2016 6:18 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 Apr 20, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    I would not say Jones soda. At least National Beverage owns it plants, but at the end of the day the stock is way overvalued. When you look at the total sales of the water brand which is doing very well and give them 175m in revenues the multiple just does not make sense. The other brands are declining and the plants are worth about $200m. So this is fairly valued at about 1/2 the current price. Now that sparkling water is a much bigger deal and there is nothing very special about the product as Cramer has pointed out, my guess is the both Coke and Pepsi will get around to doing something more in the space and other retailers will start a bigger push in private label. This is will squeeze national at first on the margin side as they will respond by lowering the cost of the products and then the volume will fall as there distribution system is not as good as coke and pepsi and others. What makes matters worst is that they have a very poor reputation working with retail and there customers just don't like them very much. When it falls it will fall hard no matter how much stock insiders buy to keep it up. The question is when. If you have patience now is a good time to short this bad boy. I can see low 20's in 12 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    the mountain dew breakfast drink

    by netprophecy2 Mar 30, 2016 6:50 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 Mar 31, 2016 8:58 PM Flag

    With the new life the revenues/profits this deal will offer to them, they should go out and get somebody who really has a good idea of what to do. That would give them the best chance.

  • Reply to

    the mountain dew breakfast drink

    by netprophecy2 Mar 30, 2016 6:50 PM
    pitsel123 pitsel123 Mar 31, 2016 10:46 AM Flag

    I think your estimate is about 2x reality. That said I believe the wholesale value for the 7-11 program is about 10mil per year with a 25% gross margin. Given that, the Jones stock is slightly overvalued. I would suggest these revenues should be discounted as they are based on a store brand which is at best a 2 year deal. It does keep them in business and it is possible that they could come up with something branded that could drive growth. That said, the track record of the current team is weak and at the end of the day no one really cares about Jones soda in the larger scope.

    Sentiment: Hold

JSDA
0.62+0.0010(+0.34%)Jun 27 3:50 PMEDT