I have come to believe the real power in this country and at least the western world lies with people who create money and deside to whom it gets lent. Our Congress just voted out the laws that were just voted in that limited the power of our financial institutions. Our puppet Congress didn't forget 2007, they just did what they were told. Elizabeth Warren spoke against this retrackment. She'd get my vote.
Yes, the debt is the issue. But don't the bondholders get an asset that's worth much much more than the debt. And isn't it the banks/bondholders that short sell the stock so that ANV could not raise the money to cross a very lucrative finish line. And in the end the US will need gold, so who will be allowed to own the Hycroff mine.
It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. Mark Twain
Yes, this was and is a good mine. Stockholders money helped build it. However, the stock was short sold into oblivion drying up the money needed to complete the mill. I wish I knew who will own this mine in the end.
Maybe we have the right idea, but we're competing with QE money. Unfortunately, the QE money knows the value of gold, too.
I wonder if it isn't the bondholders, themselves, who have shorted this stock. This effectively prevented ANV from raising more money. Now the bondholders get a great asset for cheap. Do we ever really know what's going on. Live and learn, again.
No more stocks, just physical silver. I ain't smart enough
Apparently, no one thinks this is a brilliant insight.
Income comes with the purchase. The debt payment is purchased with ANV. Its a wash.
Therefore, 400 million get you a pile of gold worth much more than your 400 million mill investment.
The CEO has something many people want. Bankruptcy unlikely.
Earnings offset debt. Billions in gold to whomever can build a 400 million dollar mill. The CEO is not without leverage. Bankruptcy seems unlikely.
I imagine the difficulty is the gold split. How much gold does the investor get, and how much does ANV get.
Thanks for your thought out contribution. Please comment on my observation.
I assume the bondholders get everything in a bankruptcy, As they should. What would they get.
Since the mine is making money, they would effectively get their bond payment. All the remaining potential income of the mine would also go to them. All they need is 400 hundred million to complete the mine. The hard work is done.
Its such a good deal, it can't be true. Any buyer is buying the debt, but they are also buying the bond payments. That leaves the mine expansion income for sale.
To say that the company is going bankrupt doesn't seem logical. Before that, they could sell itself and recoup some money for the shareholders. My point being is that bankruptcy seems unlikely. The current income and potential future income have too much value.
The income from the existing production effectively makes the bond payments. So now the bondholders get the remainder of Hycroft for free. The bonds payments are not lost, and they can develop a mine allegedly worth billions. Yes they would have to pay to build a new mill, but they would have verified gold in the ground.
Am I wrong?
I'm thinking about selling Monday. But.............................................. If you consider the income of the current mine to cancel out the liability of the 500 million in debt, then the mine is free to the bondholders in a bankruptcy. No value for this mine? How am I seeing this wrong?
Could the CEO and potential buyers be playing who blinks first? Or are potential buyers choosing to deal with the bondholders?
Anybody out there smarter than me.
A company with a market cap of 100 million owes 500 million but has a real value of several billion? If the company is really worth several billion why has no one lend them money, bid up the stock price, or bought the company.
1) The company is not worth several billion and the market cap is correct..
2) The stock price is low due to naked short selling while the available gold in the ground justifies a much higher price.
3) Somebody has or is going to buy an interest in the company. Someone has or is going to lend them money. These negotiations are not available to the stock holders.
Perhaps the CEO has a standing offer from a third party to purchase the company, good to a certain date. This might explain his willingness to proceed as he has. He's shopping for the best deal knowing that he has a fallback position if a better deal doesn't turns up. Possible?
If I were a bondholder, a bankruptcy would be great. The property is crearly worth much more than the 1/2 billion owed. How much more determines the leverage ANV has with any buyers or partners. The board owns alot of stock and is bargaining hard for themselves. Like a pilot who is trying to safely land a troubled plane, he has to save me to save himself.