Agreed, but I don't think PPS will do THAT much in the short-run. Would be very happy with 120 by year-end. It's the Q4 and, especially, Q1 beat-raises that will jolt PPS up. Just my .02, of course.
From current PPSs, there's likely FAR more upside in GILD. If GILD is not between 150 and 200 by end of 2015, I will come back here and apologize to you personally!
I think most would agree that GILD has (even) lower P/E and PEG currently. Investing in GILD, I have felt a little like I felt when da Q was low - that the market was discounting for risks that I felt were ultimately not likely to pan out. Of course, if there's some huge expansion in the Acthar opportunity, or a tax-loss buyout, MNK could also go much higher. I just like the GILD scene better at current prices, and on the whole.
I believe you are correct that pegylated interferon and ribavirin were mandated on the original Sovaldi prescribing information. However, as I'm sure you know, before Harvoni was approved, Sovaldi was prescribed with Olysio, to avoid the need for i or r.
However that may be, the comparator for Viekira now is not Sovaldi, but Harvoni. So, I'm not sure why you bothered posting this "true" but utterly misleading blog.
+1 to your meditations, sri. I don't think you will go wrong ditching your NQ. Even now, it is still a $320m cap company, and when it was @ $20, it was over a $1.5bn company. Never mind all the intrigue, where are the earnings to justify that and where even the prospect of them? Agh, I should go to the NQ board if I'm so curious.
There is general pessimism about the Chinese economy. In addition, the kind of doubt/suspicion that justly lowers the probable value of NQ, also blankets almost ALL Chinese companies.
But there is at least one stock among them that is the baby in the bathwater. Check out XIN. It actually recovered 0.20 today,but if I were the old Mens Wearhouse boss, I'd intone "I guarantee it" that you're gonna make very decent money in it (at least a double), within the next 1-2 years. While you wait there's an 8% dividend, gross of all the blessed ADR fee deductions. I know the management missed the Finance 101 class, but the current price is utterly ridiculous. They're still going to make 0.50 of GAAP income this year, even with PPS at 2.50. And it's not a fraud, check out the NY and other US properties.
sri: I do not know what you were thinking either, but even mikey is/was a BIG fan of going Long NQ. BUT, the point of my post is to commiserate with you and _identify_ with you, as far as this piece of psychology!
I also "researched" (ie. followed the original research of others) QCOR and GILD by far more than any other positions, and did unimaginably well, 2012-2014. But then I got overconfident (that "I can't lose" feeling) and put some profits into GTAT. Not much, you know, but then I read about the forthcoming sapphire-screen cornucopia, and the absolute wonders of Hyperion wafering and Merlin solar panel tech, and doubled down. When Cook announced "no sapphire" on Sep-09, I was actually hanging on his every word. My finger hovered over the "sell" button...but I somehow didn't do it.
Anyway, forgive me for the boring history. But, in the spirit of the old board, I just want to highlight how even great investment success can be a danger to our portfolios IF we allow the feelings SOMEHOW to lower our guard, and our DD standards.
I never got rid of some call options on GTAT, and now they give me a daily reminder, in all their zeroness, as I look at my portfolio list, of what a total idiot I was.
Hope your health insurance pays for the operation to get the tongue out of your cheek!
Nice thinking - if only business could work that way, nowadays. I'm no lawyer, but pretty sure your scheme would bring the FTC down on both their heads, no matter how they spun it.
Breakeven requires 4000 customers buying one AI per week, ongoing. How many AIs are in a pack, and how many scripts a given customer buys at one time are IRRELEVANT. You utter farking moron.
papkena: what are you - another one that got chewed up and spat out in debate elsewhere? Care to provide some evidence for your thesis about my "logic"?
Brilliant! You can contradict yourself in two lines. If I were a "basher", how could I confuse other investors if I had no idea what I was talking about?
Back to the matter at hand? Will customers who buy the Adamis product also buy the Teva product for the same usage? No? Will the Adamis product have NO sales? No?
Then how on earth is the Adamis product not a competitor?
From plaintively ignorant questions to stone-cold, evidence-free certainty - in 60 seconds!
Now that your days are not taken up talking to your wife, or planning exotic suicides, you have all kinds of time for answering the following question related to your post! Erm, why?
tdp: I am not trying to lead or mislead. Why always the DRAMA with you people here?? It's as if you are all traumatized. Could that be?
Beg forgiveness, but I see no reference to "hofno", here or elsewhere. I do not pretend to be an expert on the Adamis product, only see that it is a potential competitor. Perhaps I misunderstand you, but are you saying it's a crucial advantage for the Teva/A product that it's an AI for self-usage?? I rather thought this particular application was for when the recipient was out of commission?
More generally, I appreciate all education. Please, go ahead, educate me, I'd love it! I am only against the breathless, ignorant pumping so rampant here. Smith, a known researcher on this topic, comes up with revenue/earnings estimates for our Epi - and they're instantly too low, because they do not provide clear evidence that ATRS is currently worth more than about $3,
Oh, great manic-paranoid, god of flawed and batty research - I beg forebearance and forgiveness from your awe-inspiring ellipses....
I do not claim to know what "rating" they will get. Time will tell. I only "know" that this is a competitor to the Teva-Antares product. You can search on a headline "Walgreens Pharmacies to Offer Adamis’ Pre-Filled Epinephrine ", for example. 2009!! So, it's not exactly new news, eh? ""
I still hold 70K ATRS. I just don't see the need to be delusional because of that.
Dr. Dennis J. Carlo, President and CEO of Adamis Pharmaceuticals stated, “Having our PFS in Tier 1 is important both for our company and the 24 million Americans at risk of anaphylaxis. We are very excited about our new relationship with Walgreens and feel it will have a positive impact on our sales and financial growth.”
cache: I have a call in to IR for the company. Will let you know what they project for the pharmacy rating, if I get a reply. From the (independent) revenue estimates one sees online, substantial sales are expected. The PPS has been on a tear lately, I see.
I am not trying to "bash" ATRS. I am trying to provide an evidence-based antidote to the absurd PUMPING, evidenced in threads like this, by posters like you.
One notices that your approach to religion and investment is at least consistent. Evidence, research and independent thinking play no part whatever.
hi tdp: regarding your post: "Generic Epipen will be the ONLY generic out there with an AB rating. There are no other generic Epipens in development...", I found this in the most recent 10-Q:
"On May 28, 2014, we submitted a Section 505(b)(2) NDA application to the FDA for approval for sale of our Epinephrine PFS product. "
But, oops, it's not ATRS' 10-Q. It's not Teva's either. I am not clear whether you, or anyone, will call this product a "generic", or whether it will get AB rating, but its PDUFA is presumably around end of March, 2015. Many commentators on this company feel it is an absolute shoo-in to get FDA approval.
Yes, have been buying quite a bit in the last week, names with which I am somewhat familiar - such as PTAXF, TLM and NOG, all of which seem excellent values right now, even without a recovery in oil itself. Those oil stocks that have fallen twice as much as oil itself, and the companies are substantially hedged at much higher prices through 2015 anyway - seem too good to resist. Must look at SDRL. I know it's a similar, irrationally over-hated sector. Cheers, goldie.
eric: I'm a relative newbie to this stock, so I do not have direct knowledge, but I would very much expect them to be able to obtain a private placement for the P3 money. I would be discouraged, to put it mildly, if they have to do an equity raise at these prices.
Just a flesh wound. I bought (back) in at 5.00 dead, right after the AMR001 results. I was so sure that folks would adjust perceptions to their reality. Mumbling about tax-loss selling is getting old. Maybe they think it's an oil stock?
Bargains, eh. I guess we picked through the bleeding pool of oil on the floor a little early, last week? Self-made rule now that I'm not allowed to buy any more "bargain" energy stocks till the bottom is demonstrably in, even if it costs 10% by missing the actual bottom. Even the 80-90% hedged-through-2015 oilers are being eviscerated, seems crazy. But the ATRS Longs (of whom I am still a grouchy one) have already told me I know nothing - which is good, because now I don't feel responsible for my heirs anymore.
You see fit to insult a poster, merely on the basis of an irrelevant grade-school arithmetic manipulation? The intellectual level of this YMB is a constant shock.
blue_ simply presented the usual shorthand. Your witty comeback assumes each script is a 3-month supply, right? That means we do not see that customer again for 3 months. It doesn't in any way reduce the steady-state number of customer-weeks required to produce a target level of revenue.
That steady-state #, by the way, is about 4000. 4000*125*52 = $26m annual revenue. About 1/10 of that came in for Q3 revs, which correlates roughly with about 400 total weekly scripts, not too far off the actual. Most likely, revenue was only that good because, on average, customers were stockpiling.
The point of this post is that crowing about what really amounts to a deferred revenue situation (patient stockpiles packs of injectors) gets you nowhere. We need to get back to the trend seemingly established in Q2 and Q3, or doubts about arriving at breakeven in H1 2015 will continue.