laechelnmaker: thanks for that perspective! Made me go back and count the seventeen (17) locations listed on the clinicaltrials site. We're supposed to have kittens because ONE of the Lead Investigators was removed from the listings? For all we know, she quit.
I have the dontmindme2much troll on iggy now (although I admit this was all educational for me.)
Nah, I wouldn't "assume". Not after that CDF mess. Assumptions just didn't work out there.
For all I know, Q called her back to HQ because no one else made the coffee quite like she did. Or she removed herself when she found a better gig. Or we misunderstood.
In any case, I bought more at 77.50, simple arbitrage play until MNK falls to 52.95. Please wake me if it comes out that Maya ate the results.
OK, found the study (Clinicaltrials.gov ID:NCT01906658), and that she is (was?) Principal Investigator, and that Questcor financed the study, but still no direct evidence she was "let go". I wrote to Tara Lincoln to ask about it, don't anyone hold their breath.
Assuming Maya was (previously?) somehow associated with Questcor, is THAT why she was let go? You would think the hirers would have known about that.
Is this all? clinicaltrials.govSLASHarchiveSLASHNCT01906658SLASH2014_04_04SLASHchanges.......... replace all SLASH with /
Reasonable Searches come up dry. All I know you for here is a ridculous (and equally unevidenced) prognostication about the forthcoming PPS. So why should anyone take your post seriously, without evidence that YOU provide?
No reply to this within 12 hours, and I'd recommend you for the iggy treatment.
mike: am not sure whether you rcvd my email, thanking you for the FOIA Citron/FDA material. My reaction (for what little it may be worth) was:
"...this Fuson fellow was actually in FDA enforcement before joining Crowell Moring. He is obviously not a naif. Does he really believe Q has departed from the manufacturing and Q/A processes upon which they and the FDA shook hands in 2010? Either “yes”, or he is in with the shorts, surely. It is literally one or the other of those.
I say that because he surely knows that the FDA cannot now take the stance that Q is continuing to do exactly what they both agreed, in 2010, that Q could and should do, but that that is now a crime. The FDA could then itself be sued, for massive incompetence at the very least.
This is all very strange. Did he leave the FDA under any sort of cloud, or just because he wanted to improve himself?
Would also love to know what, if any, relation CM and Fuson had with the redacted lab. Did they just take Left’s word for everything, or were they the purveyors of the lab for Citron? This is only curiosity. Nothing matters other than the above point, including whether the 4 vials were properly treated (since Q did not base its refutation in any way on denying the science in the allegations)."
Though I agree with the rah-rah longs that the sour-grapes-sore-loser aspect of your post is laughable, the faith in Citron misplaced, and your allegations about management absurd and contemptible, nevertheless your valuation point is IMO completely valid. As I have said elsewhere, the effect of the continuing (and otherwise anticipated) Short attacks has now been measured in $ and cents. You have your pound of QCOR flesh, and I hope you enjoy suffering only bankruptcy instead of total destitution.
Don't forget, also, that the obese female still ain't crooned. Although Don went out of his way in the joint call-in to repeat that Q1 would not be all that, uncovered Shorts are still at major risk of positive news (you know, ALS is on, low-fine resolution of regulatory case) before the Merger. Such will send MNK into the 70s or even beyond, and pull QCOR along with it.
So - I'm not ecstatic, but I'm sure not in shock or on suicide watch, like the Shorties must be.
Sorry, just saw your subsequent post. You already found an authority that said much same as I did. I also neglected to say ML told me (Monday) same thing as you heard - we won't know until the time of consummation.
I imagine this (and the possibility, however remote, of total abrogation) will continue to put a chill on call options. Yet another aspect of the Merger that does NOT have me dancing in the aisles.
johnny: don't see anything that would help us with OUR options, only a number of clauses under "Treatment of Compensatory Equity Awards". Are you talking about clause (ii)? Our options do not "vest", this is for employees. Please let me know if there's some other text I just totally missed.
Exc. post, johnny. The OTM QCOR options will really convert to OTM MNK options? That really made me sit up straight. Thought mine were DOA. Did you call Fid and that's what they said? Or is it just your hypothesis? How is the new strike set? The same percentage OTM as the old strike (then) is? Fascinating.
While I agree that the Shorts obviously took a massive shaft, and have not yet covered, please remember that they too do not HAVE to cover pre-conversion. They too can just roll over into short-MNK positions. Their vitriol re. the Q element in the new stock is same-as-ever. They, like the longs, must suffer the 50% dilution, but not immediate death, necessarily.
Yes, awallejr, still own Q, but now sharing over 1/2 the growth with another set of shareholders, who have nothing like as much to give in return. Neither that nor the initial price is (in my view) adequate compensation.
Bingo, alien (and goldtean!).
The deal for QCOR longs is: take a 50% dilution, and we'll give you 30 bucks and 2 divvies and GET THE SHORTS OFF YOUR BACKS. OK?
Well, it's not OK. It's highly, highly disappointing. I'll probably do it (ie. let most of my shares roll into MNK) but don't expect a big smile.
I respect the optimistic Longs like johnny and drdon, who've been our friends and fellow-sufferers for months and years, but I vote sour-raspberries on the deal. Let the shorts off cheap.
Don't agree about the risk being only short-term. More precisely, it is not so much that the RISK of holding QCOR has increased (quite the contrary actually, with the rasberry Trudeau is giving to the whole Short edifice) but that the probability distribution of REWARD has fallen.
Do I trust this market to bid up MNK as a proxy for beneficent influences on QCOR (eg. better earnings)? Yeah, I guess so, but I'd rather hold MNK than QCOR, if that is the case.
With all the aging we've done holding Q, I personally think 82 is close enough to 85 to get out of much of my holdings. Hasn't happened yet, I admit (I missed the early session, mostly), but it will. I remain stuck with the $90 calls (fool I was, buying those!)
I think etienne is much closer to the mark than johnny. Q earnings releases should no longer affect demand for QCOR, except to the extent that it is believed the deal will not go through at all. Let me drive this home: even if Q announces $4 combined earnings for Q1+Q2, a QCOR holder is still only going to get $30 plus .897 of the value of MNK, come July - assuming the deal goes through. Why would you buy QCOR because earnings break a record?? Actually, the more rational act, in this case, is to buy MNK (as I did today, at 58.50), although the incentive is diluted (less than 50% of the incentive as of last Friday).
The funny thing is that, mathematically speaking, MNK (PPS) is now a function of Questcor's performance, and QCOR (PPS) is a function of Mallinckrodt's performance. There should be a system of 2 equations in 2 variables, that one could solve (again ASSUMING the deal goes through). For example, if the DOJ tomorrow announced a 600m fine on Questcor (sigh, this is just a what-if, sit back down), it should be MNK that sells off big, not QCOR (that's a done-deal: it's 30 + .897*MNK). [Actually, this particular event would probably get the deal explicitly canceled, since Mall would lose only the $194m forfeit by doing so.]
Yes, thanks indeed, ymbacc - I had already looked over the 425s and 8-Ks and had not planned to go back, but now I will!
Although it is encouraging that an external party has done DD and finds the Short case to be utterly wanting, I think it is obvious that Q has "paid" for the Shorts in terms of the low, low price. If it was 85 in CASH, NOW, I would be far from thrilled. That we have to research and consider the stock of a new company seems to make the deal even less attractive.
But I have warmed to the idea since today's open, because I think that MNK itself will appreciate as it filters through to potential holders, that there is still a stake in Acthar and its growth, and that the tax advantage is worth several $ per year to PPS.
0.897 of (say) 80 is almost 72...plus the 30 and its over $100 per share of QCOR.
You are apparently not accounting for risk. I imagine Questcor has to put this to a vote of shareholders? What if they vote "no", and then there is a further attack (or other bad news...), and then QCOR falls back to some price below 85? [I am not saying this will happen, but some smart stock traders actually account for risk.]
Personally, I will vote "no" to 85 if given a chance. I did buy some MNK this morning, because the value QCOR holders are NOT getting in the buyout price has nowhere to go but there, if indeed the buyout goes through.
Mike: it is because I suspected very strongly that this would be the case, that I forebore from burdening you with another forwarding job, despite your generous offer. After all, we'd have heard about it if the actual content amounted to more than the Citron papers, eh? And you said that names (eg. the lab's) were still redacted.
Despite this having been a fairly negative exercise for you (in the sense that it confirmed what most people thought: that Citron can't make out a compelling factual/logical quasi-legal case for action, and has little clue that that is the case), I am extremely grateful to you for sharing in this way. Me and about 200 others here (dare I guess!).
pat: Even if they get FDA approval 4/15, and then announce a Big Partner?
I bought back in in the 6.80s today (did not have the guts to go the AdCom bareback, took ample profits last month). Was hoping for at least 11-12 if the above, and see little downside now UNLESS the FDA wants to huddle for months.