I do agree with both of you that the market certainly seemed to think so (sudden recovery from 18s to 20s).
AFAIK though, they cannot buy back before delivering earnings report (ie. within 30 days before). No doubt the Q&A on the E/R call will clarify.
vikes: the 8-K seems to be the Jan-16 presentation, no more, no less. Why do you feel it overrides the statements in the Q&A, which you yourself quote from below in answer to the new investor, that the chain is issuance of the 10-K (we still haven't had the Q4 E/R that must precede it), only then followed by the legal permissibility of the new buyback (and funds for the old are still not exhausted, as I'm sure you know).
At any rate, they are presently in a "quiet period" until the Q4 release. I don't think they can legally start a new buyback until the period is over.
Feb 15, if past practice continues. There are dribs and drabs Feb 1-15, but the big lump is mid-month. I'm waiting to verify JH's words too. I guess it really doesn't matter who owns the damn shares, but it says something about the job he is doing. The only thing that matters right now is whether the Epi AB rolls in by June - or not.
loko, I'm sure I would appreciate your posts if I could just get through them. But I usually get so bogged down that I accidentally click the red thumb, as I slump off my chair to the floor, in a dead sleep.
I see from your occasional SA posts that you do a jam-up imitation of a compos mentis person that can construct an argument, and write English, quite nicely. So quite why you take pleasure in hamming yourself as if you were a mental defective, here on the YMB, is as big a mystery to me as the market's reaction to the AMZN E/R.
For the 947th time of asking, please knock off the drama - just post what you have. The rest of the stuff is a colossal bore. TIA.
Thanks for the reminder, cache. I owe you one, so I'll say: this is no flash-in-the-pan, so it's surprising the loko fruitloop didn't mention it. Ticker is UNIS. The link is to a post on SA, not the first such.
That makes a lotta sense, aintno. Makes one wonder why Mylan doesn't know that, and wants to throw money at convincing the FDA they did their own work wrong.
I learned [by watching Mallinckrodt sue the FDA for what was obviously wrongful transgression of their own rules and procedures (demoting methylphenidate from AB to BX, overnight, in face of the evidence, with no invitation of discussion), and the court summarily rejecting M's 100% airtight case], THAT if the FDA wants to assert its control over a company then, why, that's what it will do.
Let's hope you're right, and Teva didn't lately blot some other copybook that has nothing to do with Epi and Mylan. My point is that this corner of US jurisprudence is just like China's entire legal edifice, ie. "rule of law" is used to do what the politicians/bureaucrats want - because the law is vague or non-existent.
I did not - happy to accept the outcome of the renditions here, so far.
My point was that the issues of the EXACT differences acceptable (for AB) between the devices, is NOT, even conceptually, dealt with in the published FDA material (and we are here ignoring the entirely separate issue of whether Mylan is describing the correct, ie. relevant, version of the Antares device).
FWIW, my money is with that of those who argued that the Antares device is the outcome of an ongoing discussion between the FDA and Teva. But I have to discount that some, because I have relatively little confidence in the competency of the managements of either company.
This goes back to the probability discusion you and Andre had with numbwang, a little while ago. Remember? The practical result for me is that I am not out of Antares, but that I have been reducing, and putting the funds into GILD and TNXP. With ATRS, you have to keep discounting and discounting. Unless you have a religious attitude, of course. I have hated to admit all this to myself, because I hate to have been so wrong!
grand: as you see, some say yes and some say no - and the responses correspond exactly to what one might call known predilections, or pre-existing ideological predispositions.
I read through the FDA Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess doc. The prose is oftentimes unclear and imprecise, perhaps deliberately so. There is surely insufficient granularity to decide the case at hand on its basis. Duh.
For example, the Adamis PFS Epi product probably about to get approved in March is arguably pharmaceutically and therapeutically equivalent to the Mylan product, but it is a mere PFS, and not an imitation, so it's not going to get AB, and was not submitted with that in mind. It seems the Teva/Antares product differs in the exact steps and manner of usage. Are the differences material to the AB determination? Is it reasonable to expect that any party expecting they might have to use either the Mylan or Teva products, would have sufficiently mastered the instructions and looked at the product BEFOREHAND?
I submit that the FDA will do as it wants to do, without being constrained by the vague language of its document. Rough on the old ATRS investor? Nah, I feel a surge of gratitude coursing through my veins, that Antares management completely prepared me, theoretically and empirically, for this moment.
What impression of andre (or anyone here) do you have, outside of their posts? In case this is too difficult: how would you assess his maturity if he did not post?
bull: thanks for the comforting words...when I sold the short-term calls (PPS was in the 80s, and even low 90s), I had really expected and wanted to do it a time or 2 more in Feb and Mar (your scenario, with me cast as Einstein)!
I was quite surprised by the suddenness of the move up through the 90s and now 100s. The market had never wanted to give MNK even a 15 P/E, and now, all of a sudden, it does!
The sentiment seems to have changed dramatically. I sense that MNK has moved OUT OF the QCOR world we were all used to, with its Citron, Feuerstein and QTR ghouls liable to say "boo!" at any moment, INTO the world of the people MHO talks to before he posts here.
feel like a father who had planned to spend spring teaching his son to ride a bike with the training wheels I installed - but suddenly finds he can ride just fine without them, thanks Dad, and has gone off with his friends! THAT is the feeling of "losing my shares", albeit I'm now off margin (pigged out on MNK in the 70s, and GILD in the 80s and 90s).
Good luck to you, and all, with MNK.
eck: please check your source, and cofirm. As others have noted, the NRx appear to have grown too much, and the TRx appear short of expectations by 1000+.
Folks expected IMS count of Harvoni +Sovaldi TRx to exceed Symphony's by about 1000 or so, but your count is actually slightly LESS. Thanks....
OK, I'll save andre a turn, and take my turn heading off your deliberately-obtuse postings. Let's look at andre's just-clearly-posted sequence:
. QST efficacy data
. secondary (about 20M shares)
. next earnings
. teva AB rating
How IN GOD'S NAME do you get from that that he is "seriously suggesting that if Epi gets an AB rating ATRS will need to raise more money"??????
There's a pattern here, numb-wang: camry, rearview, andre and I have ALL had run-ins with you because you cannot follow the thread of simple text, basic logic, easy arithmetic and honest speech. I am truly not sure whether you are stupid, or just do it deliberately, like a child that wants its way. All I know is - you're not worth talking to, and it pains me to see intelligent people doing it.
FWIW, I'm not sure they need to raise so quickly. They will have better insight than us, into whether any of a number of possible dei-ex-machinis can save them in time. What more concerns me, as a STILL long-suffering long, is the CLEAR evidence of consistent management incompetence, and slow reactions to what are obvious problems.
I do know I'll never trouble JH again. In my last call (October), I asked point-blank whether he was aware of any problems with the sales force, that could cause the evident sudden trend downshift, and he breezily denied everything.
Sorry, I didn't mean to chafe about the last thread, it was just that, then, I piped up the very night before GILD fell into the Express debacle abyss (now increasingly negated)!
Your situation raises some special considerations. Personally, I think it makes sense to borrow @ 6% or so, to finance 2 stocks that rank to go up much more than that in the next year. If I was margined out on GILD and MNK, and feared a call, then I guess I'd tend to reduce the one that has more risk of a relatively large short-term dip. Both stocks have had recent, sudden 10%+ dips on surprise bad news, so even that's not an easy call, eh? Even so, if I HAD to bet on which has more risk of sudden downside in the next month, I'd bet it would be GILD (ie. I would reduce GILD more than MNK). Then again, I think both will be fine over this time period, so I'd wait for the margin call, but then I'm a degenerate gambler.
While we're just yakking, I'd bet on GILD being higher than MNK as we go into 2016. One day this past week, I looked at my account, and EACH was EXACTLY $101.60 at the same instant! - so it's kind of fun to watch that little derby.
More seriously, in the next few weeks, try to keep an eagle eye on the Friday morning script figures for H/S and A. Alas for me, I no longer have Symphony, so do not see Acthar - I wonder if mikey would tell you? I would bet Acthar has been smashing over the last month, and that is part of the wonder-run MNK has had. The GILD and MNK speakers at the recent JPM both sounded very content about numbers, even smug.
You raised this topic before! First, I have some meta-questions, relative to your topic.
Are you sure you have to choose between these 2 - that is, they are your ONLY positions, your only source of the required cash? Are you sure you can/shoud not sell calls against part of a position (ie. as a way of raising cash)? In all cases, much depends on your time horizon. In other words, when are you repaying (yourself) the required cash? Are we betting on the next week, the next month or the next year?
I admit I am not the best investor to ask for a straight answer to your question, because I have grievously underestimated MNK's performance in the last month or so. I sold Jan-16 95 and 100 strike calls and, to my surprise, I have lost my shares! But I was grotesquely overweigh MNK after the merger, was just waiting for 2015, to spread the tax hit.
I have been putting everything I can into GILD shares and calls. I believe the market has grotesquely undervalued it/them. With that said, GILD is very volatile, and looks to continue being so, in the short run. Who knows which company will have the bigger upside surprise in February?
So, obviously, I prefer GILD, and would prefer to liquidate MNK than GILD, if I needed cash (exactly my recent situation), but a lot of folks seem to be buying GILD, and selling short-lease calls against their positions. Can you supply some more parameters?
ooga: I believe "1st quarter is usually lighter than the others for Acthar" is mistaken, or at least misleading here.
Q's 4th quarter (announced Feb) was strong. Therefore, M's 1st Q (announced Feb) should be strong in that regard. Acthar was weak in Q's 1st Q (announced Apr), due to slow MS in the colder weather. (But since MS is a smaller and smaller proportion as other inds grow, even THAT may not apply so much anymore). Let me know if I'm wrong...
"that elastic"?? I postulated only -1, that is that an agency with a budget would spend it, by doubling the patients admitted to treatment when the expected price was halved (thus leaving GILD revenues and costs largely unchanged).
This has nothing to do with price substitution (buying the cheaper oranges, despite maybe a few bad ones, the ABBV/EXSR situation), and it remains an open question how many scripts Viekira will sell, or how much of GILD or ABBV profits the PBMs will divert to themselves. This Friday will be quite telling, on scripts.
Thus far, those analysts didn't do such a great job of estimating H/S scripts. You are evidently betting GILD won't make even the numbers for the current 12 P/E, but I am betting scripts will surprise considerably to the upside, now that 2015 budgets are in place. See you Friday, eh?
"sell it to the world" - not to countries where Gilead has established a valid patent, or to countries that respect US patents. Also, not to countries that would require lengthy trials for a generic, and regulatory permission.
Climb down off the ceiling, eh?
bear: true, but what if demand increased when price fell? If agency X has a budget of $H for HepC in 2015, and suddenly find they can adjust their criteria for allowing a patient into the program, might they not spend up to $2H? In that MBA course, they also would tell you that price elasticity of demand (the %age by which qty demanded changes in response to a %age change in price) can vary between 0 and infinity.
I'll throw another "nonsense" stat at you (us). What if G makes $40K net profit per H/S script in 2015, and there are a mere 10K scripts a week? That's over $20bn (ie. 40K * 10K * 52). With 1.5bn shares, that's almost $14 a share, Oh, dear, only 20K per script? That's still $6.93 in EPS just on H/S alone - and nothing said about non-USA yet. I guess there's something wrong with this figuring, but would be glad to hear what it is.
Sorry, not recent ones. Was briefly involved with Symphony, specifically to see O and a couple other drug numbers, but the subscription fee was too much for me, especially after I could clearly see O was going nowhere, and that the PPS movement, early on Friday, gave the rough direction.
I believe these companies lecture the subscriber pretty severly about legal consequences of public disclosure. Don't know whether that was why drroid closed down. Doesn't seem to stop the Harvoni/Sovaldi/Viekira numbers getting out almost at once. Another reason the sub was not a value for me, since GILD is my biggest position. Subscribing to a Bloomberg terminal seems the way to go, if one is interested.
Recently, the O number seemed to have divorced from overall ATRS PPS movements - as if the market had acknowledged that there was a CONTRIBUTION to breaking even, but that O itself was never going to do it, and that there is nothing more to be said on the topic.
While I'm just mouthing off - I think the PPS move from 2.30 to 2.70 largely discounted Epi + AB, and O continuing at about 500 scripts (1/2 the breakeven requirement). But the market never completely reflects news until it HAPPENS, so I remain hopeful that ATRS will rise to $3 on the news.
The QST-related decline from 2.70-2.40 seems overdone, since at most it means only delay of earnings, hence a slightly larger discount rate. I do think it was another black eye for management, perhaps that's the 10% fall, as others have suggestted.
Oh, I thought you were one of the Antares-can-do-no-wrong bulls. If no Epi, or no AB, you might well get your wish, in a hurry.
actually bought back, today, at 2.37, 10K of the 20K I sold at 2.70. Maybe the only way to make $ out of ATRS is to be nimble, like whogo? Of course, I'll hardly look or feel nimble if they continue to have nothing to show, and it tracks back to $2. Their Q4 cc looks likely to be another yawner, with Otrexup still mired around 500 a week.