lori: long though we have indulged this shimmering daydream - I think not.
Since October, the pattern has been that Shorts plan a surprise party to meet earnings beats - like 2 trains meeting head-on at 90mph. Even though Don recently ran HIS train down the tracks 5 days early, still, the One-Horn Gang got up, quickly ran further down the line, and messed with the points - so that we now find ourselves returning whence we came ("didn't we see this scenery before?").
I don't think it's about earnings anymore. We already won that battle. If the Shorts cannot beat earnings down, or turn MNK shareholders off the deal, or sic the government on our 2 heroes - why, then they wil keep shorting, and cry out loudly that BOTH companies stink.
This is deadly serious now. It's funds, not kellys, and I don't think many of the professionals plan to cover at this time. If the best they can do is hold down the value of the MNK shares they will ultimately be short, then THAT is what they must and WILL do. I bet they have a Stink Story ready if the earnings don't stink for themselves.
I figure M declares $1 GAAP. Add that to our $1.55 and give it a 15-20x, and MNK should be in the 75-100 range, depending on ALS and general sentiment. I'm holding on for $90 before selling a single share, especially with the mho MNK buyout rumors swirling.
There seems to have been a settlement, 7/29, of the action earlier brought by QCOR shareholders, to the effect that the proposed merger was shafting them. If so, nothing to worry about, as far as the merger completing.
Am I missing something?
whogo: your view of prospects for the EpiPen is uncharacteristically sanguine. [OT - Are you still invested in ADMP - I am]. Antares has had, and still has, MSOGs, including that co-op with Teva. But investors need to hear the pitch from Hobbs, not from us. Your figures may or may not be right, but they won't stop 2 becoming 1 if the cc does not make the business model crystal-clear.
If they just mumble that Otrexup sales are coming along nicely, and they expect breakeven early in 2015, and that the Teva and Pfizer co-ops are coming along nicely - and make little or no reference to the patents, Medac and the strategic plan for O, EpiPen, QST, etc. (ie. protecting their so-called patents), then I'm going to swallow, once, very hard, and sell the whole bloody lot.
Investors, then, were betting that by 2016 Antares would have 200m in sales, and at least a 5 year run-rate in that range. With at least 150m of that as pure profit, 137m shares outstanding, and a 10x multiple, PPS would be at least $11. Now that Medac seems set for about ½ the “plastic-injector” + MTX market Antares thought they could monopolize, ATRS looks more like 5.50.
Antares just has, for once, to do what they said they would do. Convincing investors they can, is what the upcoming cc is ALL about. Otherwise I don’t see why the PPS shouldn’t halve again to 1.
His original post was:
“Antares has historically been valued very high. I remember years while ATRS had 20M in sales, it would have a market cap of 0.5B, with 25 Price/sales. I believe that's because people are mistaken Antares as a biotech and looked at the pipeline and they thought each drug in the pipeline is similar to those of a biotech, which is misleading
The reality is that Antares is a plastic injector manufacturer, which should have traded 3-4 times the sale, or at about 60-80M market cap”
Stellar post, people-catcher. I sent it off to JH, along with my own comments. They have to realize that, no matter whether every bullet-point is well-taken, this is the case they have to answer - unless they want to see another halving of PPS.
民罗网 = mínluówǎng (or maybe even 民落网)? Just curious. If your profile does mean "catch people in fishing/bird net", that would certainly fit what you seem to be trying to do here!
There's nothing wrong with your cynical interpretation above. Obviously they need to counter all this firmly at the cc.
Thanks for posting, whogo. I, for one, found that interesting. I find your contributions valuable, which is a lot more than I can say for most posts here, probably including my own.
Personally, I'm not buying any more till it's in the 1.90s. But, then, ATRS is still 15% of my portfolio, even at current PPS. Luckily for me I also had even larger helpings of QCOR and GILD these last 2 years.
Jeremy: thanks for posting, and documenting Mr Einhorn's ignorance and lack of DD for us.
I have no idea why your post received 6 (at this time) red thumbs. Obviously there's at least 6 QCOR longs with very little between the earholes, hence nowhere to put the information you offered.
You didn't miss it. You're going to tell me you didn't read Matusow's articles after Wotton went "go it alone"? You just didn't agree at the time (if you did not sell with Scott). I am NOT going to accuse you of intellectual dishonesty. I just think you forgot.
And wasn't the AH reaction strange? Even if Q3 ain't gonna be the same (if), a current GAAP annual EPS run-rate of 8.80 makes a PPS of 90 look ridiculous with this kind of growth in prospect. Why are people (who should know much better) so afraid the gov will somehow force a price reduction?
I bought more AH @ 89.69, despite having a previous cost average of 73. I'se jus a simpel fella.
Thanks. Now you mention it, I do remember you (or someone) said before that April had been fine. Reminds me of that old line "when you get old, 3 things go to hell: your memory, your.....gee, I can't remember what the other thing was."
Was April their best ever month, then? I know that Medicaid, Medicare - and whatever happened to the CDF business (replacement method of generating co-pay assistance) - are also vital, but I'd be interested in your comment on HOW good April was (OUTSTANDING but back to normal).
kmadd: If there was some way I could upvote your post 10 times, I would do it. Yahoo never seems truly to solve the YMB coding bugs. They have a stable, an arsenal of irritating issues that cycle and recycle endlessly. Only recently has hitting the back button produced the list of topics once again (for example). Now, as many here report, responding does not bump posts or get acknowledged in the topic list.
I would NEVER buy stock in a company where IT was that poorly done, no matter how valuable their BABA stock is.
Hard to understand selling now/here, given that Q2 CC is just weeks away. A vigorous defence could so easily propel PPS at least back to 3. If they have nothing to say for themselves, or just make the usual pusillanimous noises about the pipeline, with no timeline, then I'll probably be right behind you. There's only so much one can take.
They simply have to have Otrexup, Pfizer, Teva or legal news that will propel the stock - if they don't have the brains to see that far, then I'm with you, but I think you have to give them that chance - your other stocks probably do not have plausible 50% upside by mid-August, as ATRS does (if....).
Doesn anyone, still around, subscribe to either of these services? Time was when 58 or 33_99 would spout! Sob.
Anyway, I assume someone in the world (market) has them. Since Q has NOT really taken off, but has also NOT tanked, but has done quite nicely (but not spectacularly) - then the analyst forecast of about 1.80 (non-G) must be about right?
Would love to be corrected, and/or hear what others are thinking...
tappy: for what little it may be worth, my one-line question-post was directed to nkkjuas, not to you. I agree with the case for current undervaluation, and am suffering through until Hobbs announces expected break-even for about November, and updates on Teva cooperations and the Pfizer NDA date.
Having once briefly been in ESL, I enjoy the puns non-English speakers come up with, even if I felt like giving nkkjuas a peace of my mind.
I recall a phone conv with Fid, wherein the rep told me this. What pisced me off was that the divs were no longer considered qualified (lower tax rate) SIMPLY because they had been washed through the shorting process. Again, I am not sure, but I believe that enough people beefed about this to where Fid had to increase the payment, to compensate for the loss of "qualified" status. This may provide SOME insight into Shorting fees.
In general, I think not. But I remember that on the annual tax info from the brokerage, there is a category of income in-lieu-of-dividends, paid by the brokerage itself. Sorry, I forget the exact name of the dividend-income category. It appeared to correspond to money Fidelity had had to extract from the Short. It signalled to me that my shares had been shorted (margin account only - the IRA had regular dividends), but I am not 100% sure of my interpretation.
True, 2 months would seem to bring it down to ~ 10% a year. Maybe you're right. Thanks for giving me a solid reason to stay long BOTH of them.