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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

pkarnett83 81 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Sep 12, 2012
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  • Reply to

    wow this is holding up pretty well

    by bobobaginz 11 hours ago
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 9 hours ago Flag

    Yep. Holding up great....doh.

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 27, 2015 7:33 PM Flag

    Well the Chairman of the Board is buying shares. So that means there are no negotiations going on and no interest from a large player. Otherwise, he wouldn't be buying shares.

  • Reply to

    Wow, Dow drops 2000 in 4 days & DDD remains $12

    by denny.dozen Aug 25, 2015 9:02 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 25, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    Third lowest closing price in over 3.5 years and you are pumping your chest about how it "remains at $12"?

    This is one of the worst stocks to have owned this year. And even with the stock price this low, no GE or HP or anyone else has come forward with interest in buying them. THAT is disturbing and is solid evidence, along with the huge short interest, that things aren't great in paradise.

    Single digits soon.

  • Reply to

    Another BIG Buy

    by richardson4726 Aug 25, 2015 1:04 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 25, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    So when someone buys a stock there isn't an equal seller? These shares come out of thin air? Thanks for explaining the market!

  • Reply to

    Another BIG Buy

    by richardson4726 Aug 25, 2015 1:04 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 25, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    A bunch of little sellers? You do know that in order to buy 2m shares, someone must sell 2m shares? So yeah, real small seller.

  • Reply to

    How dumb were those insiders?

    by pkarnett83 Aug 21, 2015 11:20 AM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 25, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    $18 by Friday?

  • pkarnett83 by pkarnett83 Aug 25, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    I love how when the market goes down and this goes down more, everyone just claims "oh, it is the overall market!". Then when the market goes up, and this still goes down, it is crickets. This apparently is only correlated with the market when the market goes down. People love to make excuses for this stock.

    So, still waiting on that major partnership to get sales going. Stock goes nowhere until then.

  • Reply to

    Script Growth

    by cyliu1222 Aug 24, 2015 2:46 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 24, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    Oh you have also fallen for the "no fair value' idea, which, of course, is made up. I have seen many companies get bought out based solely on Phase II results, or before a company even had an approved drug. Pharmasset was bought for $11b on Phase II results alone. So don't keep saying #$%$ about "can't value it". They could find a way to make both sides happy. Believe it or not, the industry has done it before. Many, many times.

  • Reply to

    Script Growth

    by cyliu1222 Aug 24, 2015 2:46 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 24, 2015 7:40 PM Flag

    So you are predicting, that even with 1A win and superior product, that AMRN will still only muster 20% market share by year end???!!!!! How HORRIBLE is that?? 3 years on the market, superior product, 1A win, and only 20% market share?

    Who can deny that a MAJOR partner is a necessity at this point? Even if they get to 17k, big deal? That is still well less than half what is needed for this company to BREAK EVEN.

    And they can't afford to hire anymore on their own. Each rep is producing like 1 new script per month on average...so how is that salesperson EVER going to be worth what they are paid?

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 23, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    Of course it is the scenario that is easily best for shareholders, and has been for several years. Unfortunately management is EXTREMELY greedy. "not a penny under $30!" back in 2012 cost shareholders hundreds of millions, if not a billion or more, in equity. Management wants to risk this company completely on reduce-it interim results. They aren't interested in giving up one cent of potential upside in order to minimize extreme downside. I mean go look at IHUB, there are people calling for $30-$50 buyouts within a couple of years. Seriously. So people really do believe this stuff, management probably included. If management was rational thinkers this stock would have been sold back in 2012 for $15-$20 a share. They aren't, and $2 a share is what you get. I would guess AZN has probably given up on these pursuits cause its pointless for them to try to negotiate with people who won't give an inch.

  • Reply to

    Is $5 in the near future for this stock??

    by seepasttheruin Aug 22, 2015 7:21 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 23, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    I didnt say it would just go to $5 at interim stop. I did not make a statement of where it would go; just that it would go at least to $5. The initial post was asking how to get to $5 or higher, and those are the only two ways.

  • Reply to

    Is $5 in the near future for this stock??

    by seepasttheruin Aug 22, 2015 7:21 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 23, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    I also expected an open near $3 from the 1A case. Was absolutely shocked and appalled at the action since. But that price action really told us a lot, that basically nothing except the two things above will move this. $3 is unlikely unless one of the two above things happen. There is no other possible news that could move this stock 50%. Think about the fact that this was at $2.50.....the company subsequently got NCE and won the 1A case, and it's down 25% since. It's gonna take something major to get to $3.

  • Reply to

    Is $5 in the near future for this stock??

    by seepasttheruin Aug 22, 2015 7:21 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 22, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    There are two paths to $5, and these are the ONLY two paths:

    1) A MAJOR partnership with a big pharma player who can push sales. A buyout (with future CVRs, of course) would also do it. Likelihood: unlikely as management does not appear interested in either of these two options, despite what it would do for shareholders.

    2) Reduce-it is stopped at interim for efficacy. This is probably a solid year away, if it is to happen. Likelihood: no one truly knows, probably not likely given that even if it shows efficacy, the committee will want to continue the trial to gain information given the trial's importance to scientific community. Keep in mind, if Reduce-It is not stopped at interim, the stock will likely take a large (80%?) type haircut and eventually go to pennies as Amarin will not be a viable company any further.

    If management was smart a buyout with CVRs would be the prudent option. Ensures shareholders money and a nice return, and allows for future upside with Reduce-it. Sure, some eventual upside may be given up if Reduce-it succeeds, but it takes away the 100% reliance on Reduce-it interim for solvency. It's called risk management, and as of now, AMRN management has not shown they are aware of said Risk Management (remember, Joe Z had ZERO backup plan upon Adcom failure).

  • Reply to

    Weekly TRx by Month

    by cyliu1222 Aug 21, 2015 12:39 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 21, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Pretty horrible growth...what 300 reps between Kowa and Amarin? So each rep is averaging about 1-2 new scripts per month? That is brutally bad considering we have a "superior" product. Can barely muster 15% market share after nearly 3 years on the market.

    AMRN, GET SERIOUS ABOUT SELLING AND PARTNER WITH SOMEONE WHO CAN ACTUALLY SELL.

  • Reply to

    How dumb were those insiders?

    by pkarnett83 Aug 21, 2015 11:20 AM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 21, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    um.....no. Not a chance. This isn't even close to bottoming out yet and is a completely broken stock. $18 by next Friday? Holy cow. if it's still at $11.96 next Friday consider that a major victory. Once this breaks $11.66 (probably today), selling is only going to accelerate.

  • One bought at $14 and the other at $13? Well, I guess it is not surprising, these people don't seem to be the brightest in the world. Hard to be confident in the Board when their judgment is on full display with these terrible buys.

  • Reply to

    Extremely demoralizing week

    by pkarnett83 Aug 19, 2015 11:26 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 20, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    BP pays up if the potential is there. I have seen many companies get bought out before Phase III is even done or the product is approved, for $1b+. Look at VVUS...bought for $11b on potential alone. Yes, $11b.

    Now isn't the time? When exactly IS the time, huh? The stock will not approach $3 again on its own merits. So when IS the time? Of course the time was back in 2012 but JZ majorly messed that up.

    When you are in mountains of debt, can't grow sales, and hemorraghing cash each quarter, you don't own when the "time" is right. AMRN isn't the one who should be dictating ANYTHING to BP.

  • Reply to

    Extremely demoralizing week

    by pkarnett83 Aug 19, 2015 11:26 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 20, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    Been in this stock over three years bro. JT and management refuses to take actions to reward shareholders and maximize this product. Let is waste away in the hands of incompetent reps isn't a solution.

    Interim reduce-it positive? Who knows. It probably won't be stopped. I suppose it could. But management refuses to take ANY actions to de-risk this event in a little bit.

    This isn't about "propping up stock prices". It's about realizing the potential of a product have instead of letting it waste away.

    I keep thinkingn to myself...EVENTUALLY management will do the correct thing, but time keeps passing and they remain just oblivious to reality here.

    But hey, you can go be perfectly happy with the .50 cent DROP on NCE and 1A wins. Kudos to you. I actually invest to make money, however.

  • Reply to

    Extremely demoralizing week

    by pkarnett83 Aug 19, 2015 11:26 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 20, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Hey, what's another 7% drop between friends? Great job AMRN management for delivering!!!

  • Reply to

    shareholder value will improve

    by cuzzinvnny Aug 20, 2015 9:03 AM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Aug 20, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    People just don't get it. Scripts literally CANNOT significantly increase! It's not currently possible given the meager sales force backing the product. A drug doesn't just sell itself. And most doctors aren't even aware Vascepa exists, let alone up to date on this 1st amendment case. So yes, it's easy to sit back on a message board and say things like "when scripts start showing a significant increase" but in the trenches and in the reality of making that happen, AMRN has zero capability to do that.

    The only hope is a partnership or buyout with major pharma player who can integrate the product into a 1,000+ person sales force. That's it. Otherwise we will continue to see snail's pace growth.

EXEL
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