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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

pkarnett83 264 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Sep 12, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Trading Pattern

    by cardinaldoll 13 hours ago
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 13 hours ago Flag

    Oh great....another bottom and buying opportunity!!!!

  • Go to their site, Vascepa not listed as a product.

    How much is Kowa really trying to sell this drug?

    I still cannot believe this is the partnership that AMRN chose. Kowa was seriously their best option? Just horrible.

  • We usually get a 3-4 week advance notice. Last year they announced the earnings date on Oct 8 and the earnings were released Nov 4th. Last quarter they announced the earnings date on July 10 and earnings were released Aug 6th.

    I would think the earnings would come out next week? But still no announcement on the date? Are they trying to just slip in the earnings under the radar with little notice? Maybe so late notice some analysts can't attend the CC?

  • Reply to

    Impressive reversal

    by pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 10:31 AM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    So is Brear still not coming clean? Cause the analysts surely don't believe a word that there wasn't any losses. One analyst has next years revenue at $65m!!!! So either Brear isn't telling the truth still, or he is, and the analysts don't care to believe a word he says.

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    You honestly believe it is OK for them to announce a $100m expense, with only $136m in cash remaining and $200m in other debt, and to not explain at all as to how to pay for it? That is OK in your book? WOW.

  • Reply to

    Impressive reversal

    by pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 10:31 AM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Yeah these short term rises after a big drop scare me. Look at what happened back in February 2013 when the first bombshell miss was announced. Stock went down to mid-$11s then proceed to rise to mid-$13s relatively quickly. I thought we were out of the woods and had recovered. Stock then proceeded to collapse to low-$10s.

    So caution is needed here. Dead cat bounces are real, and they can end and the stock can retreat back lower than the initial drop. Which is why I am so thirsty for some news or something else positive to ensure we can sustain where we are without a low volume take down.

  • Reply to

    Impressive reversal

    by pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 10:31 AM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    I am definitely happy about the 30%+ trend over the last couple of weeks. Valuation is still putrid, however. But it's one step at a time to a recovery. I am still concerned that they have only announced two wins in the last 5 months. But I am very happy about the people who are getting on board who won't stand for this bad performance. We finally have people on board who care.

  • pkarnett83 by pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Nice 35 cent reversal in a matter of minutes. Easy low volume squash of the momentum that was building.

    Have to see if it can hold $7 over the next few days.

  • Make an announcement to commit to a $100m expense, but provide absolutely NO DETAILS on how to pay for said $100m expense. Then go into a hole and not say a word to address the situation, and watch the stock wither away consistently down, down, down into oblivion. It's just amazing amazing stuff that leaders of a publicly traded company would do this. Throw THAT MUCH uncertainty into the marketplace and never address it again.

    What else is the market to assume except they will dilute in the future or currently have no idea how they plan on paying for it, and are just going wherever the wind blows them? The management of this company hasn't had a plan in place since the original Marine approval. No plan then. No plan now. The whole plan was "not a penny under $30!" and when that failed these incompetent people were deer in the headlights.

    What exactly IS the plan here? The appeals and legal road was a horrible path to go down. This management makes the wrong decision every time. Every single time. And they are still running around like a chicken with their head cut off. But they don't care, they got their millions. So why the need to tell shareholders how to pay for a $100m expense?

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 29, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Force them to terminate it? Retail shareholders? You serious?

  • Google "castle union distressed debt investing" and go to first link. Good interview with the two people who run Castle Union. I think these two know what they are doing.

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    Cause a short lived spike then immediately back down. Frustrating stock.

  • Reply to

    Let me already won

    by pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 12:46 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    JZ and JT are the ones making all the decisions. Farrell is probably doing very well, probably making what? a few hundred thousand a year? For accomplishing basically nothing? Pretty pretty pretty pretty good gig.

  • Reply to

    Let me already won

    by pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 12:46 PM
    pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    There is no changing it. That is why this is at 90 cents. Cause it's a bad situation and a company run by very bad, incompetent people. The only skill set they have was making themselves, and future generations, financially secure by pumping this garbage so they could sell stock in 2012. That was the whole reason this company exists. It was to allow these people a chance to make A LOT of money. And they did it. Whatever happened after that point wasn't really relevant. Sure, they could have made more, but they did just fine the way it ended up. Blame the FDA all you want, doesn't change the fact that the people running this company have no idea what they are doing.

    They may very well make a lot more if Reduce-It works, but current shareholders may be wiped out before it even gets to that. Which is why major dilution or BK is of no concern to the people running the company currently. They can just get new stock awards later after the carnage is over.

    They win no matter what happens. FACT.

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    They might not have enough assets to be an "institution". I think you need $100m in asset to be required to file a 13F.

  • They are rich. You have to learn to understand this. They won the game and don't care at this point. Which is why all they are going to do is go all in on Reduce-IT.

    Think about it this way, from their perspective:

    Reduce-It fails: oh well, I am still rich from my 2012 sales.
    Reduce-It succeeds: oh, I am even richer now.

    So either way, they are rich. So why not risk everything, including solvency of the company, on this study? Sure. Wipe out shareholders in the process? That is fine, we can just come out of BK and issue more shares to the management that will cash if Reduce-It succeeds.

    To be rich or richer, that is the question.

    Which is why the current stock price means nothing. Whether they have cash means nothing. Whether they dilute means nothing.

    This management team is NOT out for shareholders best interest. PERIOD.

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Board nominees except Eric Singer and Stephen Domenik at the Company's annual shareholder meeting on May 22, 2014.

    Meru's Board, as historically constituted, cannot be trusted to run the Company for the benefit of shareholders. The status quo of consistent weak operating performance and egregious director compensation cannot be allowed to continue. There is one path to maximize shareholder value and the Board, in discharge of its fiduciary duties, must undertake it: the Board must immediately initiate a sale process for the Company.


    Castle Union Partners, L.P.

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    barriers to entry. There is also no doubt that these assets are stranded in a subscale organization from which shareholders have derived little value. Fortunately, there are other companies with the infrastructure to realize substantial cost and revenue synergies from a Meru acquisition and thus put Meru's assets to better use.

    In the trailing twelve months, Meru has reported $101.6 million of revenue with strong 64.4% gross margins. Almost the entirety of Meru's $65.5 million of gross profit was consumed by SG&A expenses, as befits a subscale company. However, a strategic acquirer would be able to realize significant cost synergies by removing duplicative SG&A. Management and director compensation in 2013 alone was $5.4 million.

    As shown in the Pro-Forma income statement above, we estimate that a strategic acquirer with already existing infrastructure could remove $50 million of costs and quickly turn Meru in an accretive acquisition. Moreover, a global technology company with a large salesforce could also realize strong revenue synergies that we have not accounted for in the Pro-Forma.

    Meru's Director Compensation is Egregiously HighMeru's stock began 2011 trading at $15.42/share. On April 30, 2014, the stock closed at $3.66/share. Over this period where shareholders suffered a 76% loss, Meru's directors collected over $3.8 million of total compensation. In 2013 alone, the Board received 263,157 shares of stock.

    To put these numbers in perspective, $3.8 million is a full 6.2% of Meru's current enterprise value. Meru's shareholders suffered over 1% dilution in 2013 from stock given to the directors. For an even more nausea-inducing revelation, we note that management and director compensation for the last three years totals $15.7 million, a full 26% of Meru's current enterprise value.

    As a major shareholder, we cannot stand idly by while the Board repeatedly fails to take the appropriate actions to maximize shareholder value. We will withhold our votes for all

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    the $19.4 million reported by Meru in the same period. However, by Q4 2013, Aerohive had achieved sales of $30.2 million, a level only matched by Meru because of the pull-in of $2-$3 million of revenue from Q1 2014.

    Investors have certainly taken notice of the performance disparity between Meru and its peers. Ruckus trades at 2.6X EV/Sales, while Aerohive trades at 4.1X EV/Sales. Meru's stock trades at a fraction of those multiples at 0.6X EV/Sales.

    As one of Meru's largest shareholders, we find this long history of underperformance to be unacceptable and we hope other shareholders share this opinion. The status quo cannot be allowed to continue.

    Meru is Hopelessly Subscale The chart below shows Meru's SG&A spending as a percentage of sales and operating margin for every quarter the Company has been public.

    We believe three important facts are made clear by this chart: 1) Meru has never reported an operating profit; 2) Meru is unprofitable because it must spend an average of 65% of its sales on SG&A; and 3) despite increased investment in SG&A of up to 106% of sales, Meru has not been able to achieve any meaningful revenue growth.

    The only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from these facts is that Meru is hopelessly subscale. The Company has already failed once to drive revenue growth from increased sales & marketing spending and there is no reason to believe another experiment would lead to a different result. Furthermore, after burning $4 million of cash in Q1 2014, Meru simply does not have the balance sheet to support sustained losses from an increased sales & marketing investment.

    The chasm to significant profitability is too wide to cross and this leaves the Company with no viable path out of its unprofitable subscale purgatory other than a sale to a strategic acquirer.

    Meru is Worth More to a Strategic Acquirer than as an Independent Company There is no doubt that Meru has good technology and products, and operates in a market with meaningful bar

  • pkarnett83 pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    They got activist with Meru Networks recently. Here is their recent letter. Also they are based out of Chicago, same as Ronald Chez.

    Dear Fellow Meru Shareholders,

    Castle Union Partners, LP ("Castle Union") owns 5.7% of Meru Networks (the "Company") common stock.

    Over the past few months, we have communicated privately to Meru's management and Board our concerns about the Company's consistently weak operating performance. Among the various concerns we have articulated to the Board include Meru's long history of underperformance relative to its enterprise WLAN peers and the hopelessly subscale nature of Meru's business. We have also explained to the Board the potential for significant shareholder value creation through a sale of the Company.

    Time is of the essence and the time has long since passed for the Board to take proactive steps to maximize shareholder value. We do not believe Meru should remain an independent company and the Board must immediately commence a sale process.

    Meru Has Significantly Underperformed Its Peers The chart below shows the three-year normalized revenue growth of five participants in the enterprise WLAN market: Meru, Aruba, Ruckus, Ubiquiti, and Aerohive.

    The gap between Meru and its peers is startling. Especially telling is the growth Aerohive and Ruckus have achieved relative to Meru. In Q1 2011, Meru reported $20.1 million of revenue. A full three years later, Meru's Q1 2014 revenue came in at $20.6 million. At the $24 million midpoint of Meru's sales guidance for Q2 2014, Meru's first-half 2014 revenue will be down 13% from first-half 2013.

    Over this same period, Ruckus has grown from $21.3 million in quarterly revenues to $75 million. From the same starting point, Ruckus is now a 3.75X larger company than Meru. At the $79 million midpoint of Ruckus' sales guidance, Ruckus' first-half revenue will be up 27% from first-half 2013.

    Also in stark contrast, Aerohive reported revenue of $12.5 million in Q1 2012, a level far below th

1.72+0.02(+1.18%)Oct 30 4:00 PMEDT

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