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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

pksgrady 74 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 18, 2014 6:20 AM Member since: Mar 27, 2008
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  • pksgrady by pksgrady Nov 18, 2014 6:20 AM Flag

    Gilead: What About Its Pipeline?
    by Ben Levisohn

    With so much of the focus on Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Hepatitis-C franchise, UBS analyst Matthew Roden and team wonder if its pipeline of drugs is “under-appreciated” following a call with the biotech giant’s head of research & development. They explain:

    Trading at 10.5x 2015e EPS, we think Gilead’s stock reflects significant HCV tail risks and minimal credit for pipeline and capital allocation. The rigorousness in R&D was evident in our call, suggesting pipeline optionality ranging from antivirals to fibrosis, solid tumors, and cardiovascular. We also think market is starting to underestimate Gilead’s commercial prowess despite an overall HCV package that is first and best in class.

    Shares of Gilead Science have fallen 0.4% to $101.66 at 10:01 a.m. today, even as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has advanced 1.2% to $291.55.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Frustrated with GILD...

    by lively1nc Nov 7, 2014 7:35 PM
    pksgrady pksgrady Nov 8, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    I first invested in GILD in 2006. I cannot tell you how much money I've made but gild is by far my most profitable holding. I added and reduced shares over time but will always keep a core holding. It's a fantastic company with a great management team.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Unlocking value from the combine R&D facilities from acquisitions AMGN easily can go over 200 and then some. There is a lot of value in the pipeline. 12 month target could be upgraded to 300

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Citation from Barons:"
    Gilead Sciences: Another Big Jump in Hep-C Prescriptions
    Paul Sakuma

    Another Friday, another set of prescription data on Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Hepatitis C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni.

    ISI Evercore’s Mark Schoenebaum notes that prescriptions for Harvoni rose 79% to 1,983, while Sovaldi rose 5% to 4,302. Together, the two drugs rose 20% to 6,286 prescriptions.

    Schoenebaum says that prescriptions need to average 7,900 during the fourth quarter to meet consensus estimates–and he thinks Gilead will get there. “If you assume growth slows every week into quarter’s end from 20%, you get to consensus estimates,” he says.

    Bernstein’s Geoffrey Porges and Wen Shi take the long view on Gilead:

    We believe that Gilead Sciences will be one of the more remarkable growth stories in industry history from 2013 until 2017, with one of the fastest launches in industry history emerging from its Hepatitis C franchise. This launch adds to a steadily growing HIV franchise which offers relatively predictable 8-10% growth through 2017. In addition the company has an emerging oncology franchise which will be led by idelalisib which was just approved for B cell malignancies. We now forecast that earnings will grow explosively, from $1.95 in 2012 to more than $13 in 2016 and 2017, which should capture the attention and imagination of most active growth investors. We remain concerned that 2018 will see a significant decline in revenue, cash flow and earnings; TAF is turning into one of the company’s most valuable tools to mitigate that decline, but we still believe that the company will need to identify additional blockbuster opportunities to even maintain stable revenue, earnings and cash flow after 2017. Nevertheless even our most conservative valuation methodologies suggest that the stock is worth $120-130/share and with more aggressive methods even more upside can be justified."

  • This is a vote of confidence adding a COO to the management team. I'm please with this decision and looking forward to the next few month.

  • Reply to

    130 at year end

    by pksgrady Sep 26, 2014 5:03 PM
    pksgrady pksgrady Oct 22, 2014 5:51 AM Flag

    Turns out my estimate has been too low

  • pksgrady by pksgrady Sep 26, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    Series of good news will drive up the stock to 130 by year end.

  • pksgrady by pksgrady Sep 26, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    BIIB are scheduled to report earnings Oct 22nd. Consensus Estimate is $3.22, but BIIB has a history of blow out earnings, which could drive the stock over 400. It will start moving in a week or two in anticipation of the earnings.

  • I was about to ask when we will hit two hundred, but that seems to be a given now and I would anticipate that no later than by year end the stock will have moved decisively over 200.

    The question is about if the company can continue its strong growth story being able to hit 300.

  • pksgrady pksgrady Sep 26, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    Thanks for pointing this out

  • There must have been a news leak somewhere how else can you explain a 20 % increase in price on high volume. This actually bides well for more price appreciation and a short squeeze. We easily could ride this to over three and above over the next few days...

  • pksgrady pksgrady Jul 23, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    I would think that expectations are higher for GILD. I don't expect much price action even if GILD easily beats the expectation. It would be another story if they report blow out earnings as well as rise their guidance...we'll see in a few hours. In either case I will not sell my position but keep it for the long haul.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Will Gilead top 100 by end of week?

    by pksgrady Jul 22, 2014 12:21 PM
    pksgrady pksgrady Jul 22, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    I wanted add that the upcoming earnings are actually very important as some of the new, recent price target of 140 will be validated or not by the earning announcements. It also will be interesting how the market will react.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Like Barrons already published 'Does Anyone Think It's Not Going to Beat?'

    Question is how much of a beat and blow out quarter will Gilead have and will it be enough to propel it beyond 100 by end of week?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GILD = LONG

    by akadvisor2020 Jul 21, 2014 4:31 PM
    pksgrady pksgrady Jul 22, 2014 7:57 AM Flag

    I've traded GILD a few years ago, made some good money, but also missed a few moves. I then decided to just stay long and not to worry about it, and never regretted the decision.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    "EARNINGS"

    by dcr82160 Feb 6, 2014 7:22 PM
    pksgrady pksgrady Feb 10, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    Whisper number is $1,28 vs. 0.99 consensus estimate. It will be interesting what they report and if the number is sufficient to ease concern about higher administrative and R&D cost (building the pipeline).

  • pksgrady pksgrady Feb 6, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    I agree with you, but I'm looking at EMA 20 & 50. It hit the 20 today and most likely will bounce off and take off from here. One concern however is the overall weakness in the bio-tech sector.

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/charts?symbol=US:GILD#{"events":["earnings"],"zRange":"6","startDate":"2013-2-6","endDate":"2014-2-6","chartStyle":"mountain","chartCursor":"1","scaleType":"0","yaxisAlign":"right","indicators":[["EMA",20,50,200]],"mode":"pan"}

  • Will hit 90 and 100 real quick!!!!

    Deutsche raised price target a few days ago to 132
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Biogen+(BIIB),+Celgene+(CELG),+and+Gilead+(GILD)+Price+Targets+Raised+at+Deutsche+Bank/9093667.html

    Today Baird raised their target to 102
    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/02/04/gilead-sciences-sovaldi-a-blockbuster-baird-sees-30-upside/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pksgrady pksgrady Feb 1, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    I rather look at conservative numbers and be positively surprise than the opposite

  • pksgrady pksgrady Jan 30, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    If we are talking numbers we should go the whole nine yards

    Skin infections, the market for Brilacidin is roughly a $17 bill./year market in U.S.
    Capturing just 6% of that market would translate into 1 bill of sales. Price to Sales ratio could range from 4 - 14, which would translate to a market cap of 4 - 14 bill, which would roughly translate into a stock price of $ 20 - % 70.

    Similar calculations for the other areas support the above listed stock prices.
    The market for cancer drugs is roughly $77.4bn. CTIX just need to capture a fraction of that.

    Prurisol could generate anything from 100 - 500 mill, if the drug is shows modest activities; if exceptional it could easily generate of a bill.

    I don't think CTIX will trade much longer in the 1.5 - 2 range (150 - 200 market cap). Modest good news could easily push the stock into the $5 (500 mill market cap) range this year, into the $ 20 (2 bill market cap) range next year. And that still looks cheap.

    Of course there are risks along the way otherwise would could just wait and harvest our money tree as I mentioned before.

    Of course that's all my 2 cents and nobody should make investment decisions based on my numbers.

ARNA
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