Whats the hope for this company?
Would love to see a stellar report, but it seems the only way for numbers to blow out expectations would be if spwr sold some of its on balance sheet systems at very favorable margins or realized revenue faster than expected on systems it is currently building. Perhaps I am wrong, but spwr is already operating at full capacity so it seems there upside is capped.
Good points but let me clarify my thoughts. First I am projecting way into the future. If the cost of solar continues its rapid decent and becomes cheaper to deploy, carbon fuel power systems will as well. Thus margins will remain razor thin for years to come. Obviously, the current solar boom is being driven by cost reduction within the industry and easy access to cheap money because the current spreads between what you can borrow at versus the price you can sell energy at is favorable. The risk therefore is rising interest rates and lower energy rates. Basically I am making the same argument as those that argue lower oil prices are bad for the economy because it means defaltion. Good for the consumer, bad for the investor.
Can you imagine a world where distributed solar power systems for the home sell for $2500? Solar would be everywhere, but margins and the business opportunity would diminish quickly. Just a few random thoughts...
Last I checked, the cost of coal, natural gas and oil are all way down. And the simple truth is that as more solar is installed and cost of solar goes lower, there will be further demand destruction for fossil fuel energy thus driving the cost of grid electricity lower. So what happens if you buy a solar system from SCTY and lock in prices with modest rate increases, but the cost of grid power goes lower? Right now there is an underlying assumption that electricity prices will continue higher but again, what if they go lower?
So how do these two statements fit together....Declining energy costs and rising prices? Common sense would indicate the retail price of energy would also decline with declining production costs of energy. No?
The price action in relation to csiq has become quite interesting if you like this kind of stuff. SPWR has reversed its relative strength weakness in the last few weeks outperforming csiq. While in and of itself not a big deal, but it is a trend change since last earnings call. Perhaps there is some news regarding the yieldco strategy to be announced soon and thus its catching a bid. Time will tell. Any thoughts:?
Makes no sense to me. Any thoughts?
Just looking at the pattern on the day chart. Not my expertise but looks promising????
I would like it to be soon. But not so sure. Something needs to happen to put a floor in the markets.
So now the only thing to really worry about is the broader market. We need a sentiment shift.
SP 500 and Dow only off 5% or so from there highs. Hardly a bear market. Even the Russell is only off a little over 10%. This constitues a correction, not a bear market.
I wouldnt be surprised. Today or tomorrow. I do think if there is a flush you want to buy it. And be prepared to buy the second flush on the 27 gap as well.
Spwr and all other solars acting very sick. Question is always in times like these is when will it end. I tend to watch the pivot points on a 2 hour chart and S2 is down around 29. A flush to this level would also fill the gap on April 22/23.Also a tiny gap on the daily around 26.75ish.
Oil is a tough one. Occasionally I look at the USO. Saudi's made some ramblings about wanting to keep market share versus inflating prices, so if that is true and they start getting into price wars, look for it to go lower. I actually like Stockgrrls thoughts below regarding some of the miners and mining etf's. Prices do look attractive however for GLD. But I don't watch it closely and would wait for a big flush. There is a way to trade it with options and make money, I just haven't spent enough time to figure it out yet. But making a directional bet for a reversal seems like a good way to lose money.
Easier ways to make money. But now the price is so low you are essentially just buying an option on managements ability to turn things around. Its possible. SPWR is a good case and point.
But Bull, that would require Stockgrrl and Chasen to do some actual fundamental analysis. Not there game.
Just a matter of time before we hear more about this and perhaps other manufacturers planning to do the same. Seems like a real possibility.