Been away from solar for awhile. Also tend to post mostly on stocktwits now. Like it much better than the yahoo boards. Only solar play I have going now is a recent purchase of ldk solar. LDKYQ. They just emerged from bankruptcy with a sliver of equity. trades at 14 cents. So I took a gamble and bought 50,000 shares. Booyah! Looking for a homerun.
To be direct. I hate the fundamentals of all the solars. Terrible business. Margins are too small and they are all saddled with debt. SPWR included. I'm a bit skeptical as I don't think demand is as great as it seems. Especially if you believe the post I made prior. Speculating with ones own balance sheet to build power systems reminds of building spec houses and hoping a buyer comes along quickly. Well what happens if interest rates spike and financing systems to get a reasonable rate of return doesnt work?
Here's some more info."he point is… the banks are not lending, suggesting the MASSIVE amount of debt needed by Chinese solar companies to continue the idea of being “sold out” is POSSIBLY coming to an end (thus, YGE’s announcement). Chinese solar companies are building projects on balance sheet that are NOT collecting cash (enabled by debt that will likely never be repaid – show me, mathematically, how JKS will pay back its $1.2bn in debt… please!). This is why JASO reported a C1Q15 +$50mn EBITDA number, yet saw cash-flow-from-operations fall -$38mn q/q (ask yourself how that’s possible, beyond financial engineering?). This is very troubling, and simply stating demand is strong in the face of falling pricing is just WRONG, in my humble view."
To me it sounds an aweful lot like building spec houses with debt and hoping a buyer comes along. As we all know that party ended badly for many. In regards to csiq, they did lower their log term guidance for the full year. Turbulent seas ahead.