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planetlearn 78 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Mar 26, 2007
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  • planetlearn planetlearn 8 hours ago Flag

    You are losing credibility fast Bull. Starting to spew garbage.

  • planetlearn planetlearn 9 hours ago Flag

    Look, normally I don't like dilution, but in spwr's case since it will have little impact upon their EPS as I've described before, Having an extra 230 million in cash allows them to reinvest at higher rates of return and continue to grow the business. I personally believe the opportunity ahead of them is bigger, much bigger than it is today and will continue to grow. The time to have questioned the convertible debt was when they issued it. Fast forward the clock a few years, and the stock and company are in a much better space.

    If the bond holders take the cash, than they feel they can do better else where. If they take the shares it speaks volumes to having faith in the business and its future outlook. The stock is currently at 26.74 and new holders are getting it at 26.40 or roughly the same price. I am good with that especially if I know a major institutional holder is taking the shares.All in all, if this enables spwr to grow and increase real earnings not necessarily EPS but real earnings and cash flow, spwr will have plenty of opportunity to reward investors with future dividends, buybacks, spin offs of yeildco's etc.

  • planetlearn planetlearn 9 hours ago Flag

    Look for an SEC filing tonight detailing the debt conversion and how much was opted for shares versus cash. Hope for 100% shares. And that is my bias.

  • planetlearn planetlearn 9 hours ago Flag

    Of course it is good news if the debt is converted. SPWR was on the brink of BK when they took the loan. Cash is king. It was their only option at the time. Stock was trading in the low single digits. Of course their is a cost but now you have a much stronger company and balance sheet to boot. And you are not diluting future profits or cash earned. Only profits available to shareholders which I think is what you meant to say. But again the savings from interest payments will make the dilution a wash or close to it so who cares if there are more shares if it makes the company more profitable and provides for flexibility to invest for higher rates of return in the future. Not trying to be biased but all companies need to cash to fuel growth. And doing the convertible debt was their best option at the time. I think you will find, most investors in spwr would agree.

  • planetlearn planetlearn 11 hours ago Flag

    Thats not a bad thing. Dilution will be off set by savings from over 10 million in interest expense plus the debt will now be wiped from their balance sheet freeing up the cash for further investment. Its all good.

  • planetlearn by planetlearn Apr 15, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    spwr has awakened from the dead.

  • planetlearn planetlearn Apr 15, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    yes, bond holders would have shorted the stock to hedge their debt position as well as collect interest on the short position. What I am not exactly clear on is how they unwind their position. Essentially they are boxed in being long and short the same stock. So they have to buy to cover and sell at the same time.

  • All requests had to be in by yesterday at 5:00.

  • Reply to

    I added another layer here...

    by planetlearn Apr 14, 2014 4:02 PM
    planetlearn planetlearn Apr 14, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    I admit I am biased to the upside as I trade diagonal spreads against leaps. I'll have to double check the sales and cogs as listed by yhoo finance as to whether the numbers are gaap or non gaap but without doing so my recollection at least for spwr is that the numbers are gaap. In addition most analyst seem to disagree with you and give spwr a higher multiple because they have a competitive advantage. If you notice Fslr actually trades at a lower pe multiple which is more in line with how Chinese solars trade such as csiq. Albeit, Fslr has the best balance sheet in the industry. But the differentials between Fslr and spwr are narrowing. But margins for Fslr have been getting pinched because the cost of producing silicon panels has come down dramatically. In other words not much different than what Fslr offers. What competitive advantage does Fslr have over spwr?

  • Reply to

    I added another layer here...

    by planetlearn Apr 14, 2014 4:02 PM
    planetlearn planetlearn Apr 14, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    In regards to the convertible, I think most investors did know. management talked about it in their previous CC and certainly bond holders knew about it. Perhaps people on this board didn't know about it because all they look at are charts. But if you have a brain and curiosity on why a company might have a large short interest, you would also know.

    In regards to pumping non gaap earnings, management discloses both. As an investor, you can choose to look at whatever one you want. But no one is hiding anything. That is just some silly conspiracy theory you have.

    In regards to cost of manufacturing, SPWR has been averaging around 20% gross margins for awhile. What would concern me more, is that fslr's gross margins have dropped while spwr's have improved. In fact, they are almost reaching equal levels. FSLR's gross margins are between 22-24% while spwr's are hovering around 20%. I would say fslr's competitive advantage has diminished greatly.

    SPWR is relatively new to large scale utiltiy solar plants while fslr has been at it for awhile now. In regards to roof top, spwr is all over it while fslr won't be in this business for a few years unless they do an acquisition.

    And while investors were diluted in previous debt deals, it has allowed spwr to grow and strengthen its brand and financial condition. Think of this period in spwr's life span as the time of de-leveraging its balance sheet. Tomorrow we wake up and learn that spwr has just wiped 230 million off its balance.saving itself an 11 million dollar interest payment every year.

    I personally like fslr and spwr. So no gripes either way. But your arguments don't make sense to me regarding either company.

  • How can you resist. 230 million debt being wiped from the balance sheet. 10 million in interest payment savings or about 6 cents per share added to EPS. Cash flow positive, diversified business lines, additional capacity coming on line etc etc. The story is great and if you liked the share price at 35 you have to love it at 26.50! And if you are a technical trader, all signals say buy.

  • Reply to

    Dilution????

    by xtraderxxresurrect Apr 14, 2014 2:37 PM
    planetlearn planetlearn Apr 14, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Bull, I'm not so sure that 26.41 is a line in the sand price in order for the conversion to get done. Its just the price per share based on the conversion rate if the stock is above 26. I believe if it falls below, additional shares can be added to make whole. At least that is how I interprete the 8k filing from May 6, 2009.

  • planetlearn by planetlearn Apr 14, 2014 6:33 AM Flag

    What is up with these companies.

  • Reply to

    Bye bye 26.40

    by bull1922 Apr 11, 2014 10:10 AM
    planetlearn planetlearn Apr 11, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    I believe its 230 million, not 275. So lets assume they get their shares at 26.40 which I think is a done deal. Whats the next trade? I would assume they would buy to cover their short hedge right? This would either be a wash and the stock will remain flat at this level or is their another scenario like for example, they assume the shares and buy to cover their short creating a nice short squeeze? Any thoughts on how this might work?

  • planetlearn planetlearn Apr 10, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    I guess you are not aware of the convertible debt that comes due April 15th?

  • Does SPWR pay cash instead of stock? That would change things alot.

  • planetlearn planetlearn Apr 10, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    I think that is a good idea. I was glad to see the 15 minute gap filled at 29.36ish. Covered the remaining of my short calls and now looking for higher prices to sell calls.

  • Reply to

    Here comes 26.40

    by bull1922 Apr 8, 2014 12:05 PM
    planetlearn planetlearn Apr 8, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    The net dilution will not be that much. SPWR will save approximately 10.35 million in interest expense. Or roughly gain 6 cents per share. Net net, maybe a few cents per share in dilution. I don't think its a big deal and fundamentally the company is much stronger.

  • Reply to

    Maturity of Convertable Debentures

    by milluzzi Apr 8, 2014 1:38 PM
    planetlearn planetlearn Apr 8, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    One more thing, once the shares have been sold, the short hedge will need to be covered. SPWR is doing nothing more than simple price discovery.

  • Reply to

    Maturity of Convertable Debentures

    by milluzzi Apr 8, 2014 1:38 PM
    planetlearn planetlearn Apr 8, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    Management advised during the Q4 conference call, that share count will go from 121.5 million to between 145 and 155 million shares outstanding in Q1 and remain constant in that range for the remainder of the year. But if you add back the interest expense savings on the 275 million dollar note which is approximately 10.3 million in additional earnings, the impact could and should be only a few cents at best. Fundamentally, I don't think their is an argument here that SPWR is being hurt by the deal. Now from a trading perspective, traders obviously want to assume the shares at the best price so they can turn around and flip them higher. I would argue today's prices should be taken advantage of.

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