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Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF Message Board

plat46 35 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Q1??? We get our NDA approval????

    by wyattkap Dec 26, 2014 11:47 AM

    Actually I don't think everyone is assuming approval. With only 6.94 million share float and the fact that the stock is down about 20% for the last year tells me that the opposite is probably true. Plus after the NDA was accepted the stock went down to $4 at one point. Who knows for some reason the FDA may not approve or delay approval. ADMP is a speculative stock. If it does get a approval should see a pretty good pop. IMHO

    Sentiment: Buy

  • plat46 plat46 Dec 21, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    IMHO I think ADMP is going to run up to to Technical resistance of $6.40 prior to any major event such as approval of the injector. if approved I think it will break into new highs, if not back to $3-4

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    way oversold compared to the industry

    by jamesferrelusa69 Dec 13, 2014 5:00 PM
    plat46 plat46 Dec 13, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    I'm guessing bond holders would have to approve the sale of certain assets. The company at this points needs to cut capital costs, operating costs immediately and try to hold on and wait for a rebound in oil prices.IMHO I think they could survive with oil in the $50-60 range into 2016 without asset sales. At $65-70 they could stay out of bankruptcy indefinitely without expansion and moderate operating costs. If we stay in the 50's just a matter of time before we see single digits. If I were the Saudis I would quietly buy 9.9% of some of these beaten down companies including the equipment makers. Who the heck knows where OAS is going. Value lIne has a timeliness rating of 2 for them and has been holding that.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Looks like even with oil down over 2% today may not hit new low but who knows

    Sentiment: Sell

  • In mid October it hit these levels and within a month rallied to over $33. My concern is that is had pretty big volume last week on a substantial drop.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • plat46 plat46 Dec 5, 2014 6:34 AM Flag

    yes that is my concern that the FDA will not or delay approval. I could see this stock running up a bit until the expected approval at the end of April. If it gets approved IMHO I think the stock would soar, you could see it in the $15-20 range even more short term with the low float and start of the phase III inhaler trials. Of course we all know what will happen if it doesn't get approved.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Oil sector need help from bully Saudi!

    by donnyphan Dec 4, 2014 7:27 PM
    plat46 plat46 Dec 5, 2014 6:07 AM Flag

    If the current shale oil companies collapse, which is possible, when the price of oil goes up new companies will form and start pumping oil again. Plus Canada and mexico will continue to produce. What we don't want to do is export oil. The people that will pay in the distant future is Saudia Arabia and other Arab countries as they are giving away their natural resources at a discount. That being said these shale plays like OAS & WLL are not very safe as there is no sign of consolidation of crude oil prices as of yet. We are really getting to the critical point where companies like WLL could drop significantly from where they are at now. Who knows this could be the bottom for crude and we will see the shale plays like WLL rebound. Just to hard to tell. Long Term hopefully electric car production will start increasing and we can use cheap natural gas to run power plants and charge our cars at night. IMHO Good Luck to all.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • I can't believe this stock is falling this fast and how consistent the fall is. Should be a rebound soon. Good Luck to all

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    This is entirely over sold on stupidity

    by dcwave8 Dec 3, 2014 5:49 PM
    plat46 plat46 Dec 3, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    shake out? I wouldn't call a shake out down 66% YTD. Falling oil prices are to blame. They may come back but investment firms have to dump especially when at the conference call the company said at $70 and below they are going to pretty much stop any expansion and rely on cash flow. At this point the growth story is gone. I don't think they are going bankrupt anytime soon but earning will not look good especially if prices stay at $70 and below to next year. Who knows if they will. The EIA weekly petroleum report was bullish today.They said their investment model was based on $80 per barrel. Good luck to All

    Sentiment: Sell

  • was saying oil demand only up by about 1 million barrels for this year and supply mainly due to North America production was up about 1.6 million with everyone else holding steady production. Says North American Shale is a huge resource base and you want to be in that. Sounds like without production cuts oil to stay low. Russia needs cash so they will probably increase production. Says XOM production costs from $40-120 a barrel.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Minor decision to buy;

    by skiplarson98 Dec 3, 2014 1:27 AM
    plat46 plat46 Dec 3, 2014 6:12 AM Flag

    So they lease the rigs and you can write that down as capital? if they keep the same number of rigs and want to drill new wells after they exhaust existing wells (to keep up with their 45,000 gallons a day)? I looked at their income and cash flow and with their hedges(per the conference call) it appears they should be in okay shape until mid 2015 and they could survive bankruptcy for at least a few years if oil stays around the mid to high 60's if they cut their capex to the bone. But who knows, one of the big unknowns is how much they can cut their. I worked for a company in a similar situation where are revenues dropped considerably and we did need some investment capital which we couldn't get. But what drove us into bankruptcy as when the debt came due. I am not sure when they next have a large portion of their debt due. In our case we couldn't make a deal with the creditors and if you can generally the stock holders lose everything. OAS may come roaring back especially with the volatility of crude oil but NG has never covered from its high levels. I just don't think short term you wan tot buy this because it keeps closing lower everyday. Need to see some consolidation. Although it appears some of these shale players are overdue for a rebound. Need oil to move up above $70 IMHO

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Something is in kitchen smelling good

    by startruxx Nov 26, 2014 12:46 PM
    plat46 plat46 Dec 3, 2014 5:49 AM Flag

    I agree this is a small runup on small volume. "small run up" for a stock like this 10-30%. it can pull back just as fast. If they get the pen approved and start PIII trials in late spring near could be some good upside. I'm guessing until then it may stay between 3.5 to 5.0. IMHO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shale Producers at $42/bbl return cash

    by financefrau Nov 30, 2014 9:00 PM
    plat46 plat46 Dec 2, 2014 6:45 AM Flag

    IMHO Using their balance sheet numbers from the last two quarters it looks to me like OAS without depreciation against income is producing oil at about $40-45. This is without depreciation. Depreciation appears to be in the $25 range maybe a bit higher. So that would put their cost in the $65-70 range. At current prices it they slash capital expenditures to maybe $100 million per year they could go indefinitely without having to worry about bankruptcy if they maintain a production rate of 40-45,000 barrels a day. This being said their earning and gross revenues are going to look very bad over the next few quarters if oil stays down here. If oil gets to $42 or below they wouldn't be able to cover their expenses and debt if they were producing at 45000 barrels a day. IMHO don't base anything on this.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • much better then the 27% on Friday, may show a gain tomorrow if oil doesn't go down or comes up. I don't understand why this is getting pounded much worse then other shale producers.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • plat46 plat46 Dec 1, 2014 7:04 AM Flag

    I don't know if I would go by yahoo pre-market. Although they definitely could drop 10% today. If the the mutual funds who hold it didn't start selling Friday it could be a very bad day. Expect anything from the stock market, I wouldn't be surprised if oil bounces and takes up some of these beaten down stocks. Although I think any gains would be very limited. it is hard to value a company like OAS because it is all based on oil prices and you don't know where they are going to land.IMHO Good Luck to all.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • plat46 plat46 Dec 1, 2014 6:20 AM Flag

    When I run some numbers off their income statements it looks to me like they are in the mid to high sixties. If and this is a big if , oil stays below $70 I think they will barely make a profit and won't be able to expand. As a matter of fact in the conference call they did say that at $70 and below they would pretty much stop their expansion and try to live off cash flow. IMHO if oil stays between $60 & 70 they shouldn't have a problem with bankruptcy until 2016 because they are hedged pretty well through mid 2015. With low oil their lease assets become worthless, no chance of a buyout IMHO. At some point this stock will become a buy, I think. Saudi Arabia and OPEC have declared war on US shale producers. Today should be a wild day, I wouldn't be surprised to see OAS up today. If I were still holding it and it is up I would sell. IMHO

    Sentiment: Sell

  • plat46 plat46 Nov 29, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    patientd1, I agree with you they are not going BK anytime soon. We have watched US oil production soar in recent years and it is finally catching up with market price. The US uses so much oil and when you take a large share of that out of the world market through increasing shale oil production there is a glut of oil on the market. I just don't see the price of oil going up that much because they are over producing now and OPEC and shale producers are not going to cut back. Saudi wants the market to set the oil prices which it will. It seems like the falling oil prices with the OPEC announcement has made this an aha moment for the oil market. Kind of reminds me of the NG market when it dropped big time due to shale producers and has based out where it is now. Even China can't make up for the lack of US demand due to Shale oil. Shale oil production costs will set the low end of oil prices. That being said at some point stocks like OAS are going to be oversold but it is so hard to tell where that will be. People talk about these shale producers as being a buyout target. I don't see that happening either until oil stabilizes. BTW I bought at an average price of 27.5 but sold first thing Friday morning after the news. IMHO

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Price per Barrel Break Even

    by cc10101999 Nov 28, 2014 12:04 PM
    plat46 plat46 Nov 28, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    bobofly, I agree with you based on their last earning statement. They break even around $67-68 but about $26 of that is depreciation and about $10 interest on the debt. The thing is if they cut back on capital investment and don't get new wells the break even goes up. Per the conference call they have 32,000 barrels a day hedged with a floor of $88 for the first half of 2015. If these prices stay low through the first half of 2015 they will be in real trouble. I don't think this thing is coming back anytime soon but who knows

  • Reply to

    MAY have bottomed

    by financefrau Nov 28, 2014 10:19 AM
    plat46 plat46 Nov 28, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    IMHO don't buy OAS today. I sold my position earlier this morning because I lost the bet that OPEC would lower production. There is no technical support for this stock. The Saudi's IMHO are trying to force the shale producers out of business. I think they will continue to force prices down. Prices will stabilize at some point but probably not at the levels they are at today OAS will have a hard time making a profit but if oil stays above $60 won't have to worry about bankruptcy. This stock could be in single digits before the end of the year. Monday will be a rough day as institutions will come back from the vacation week and do some more selling IMHO. Eventually some more downgrades will hit. Barring a major political incident I don't see this thing coming back. Good Luck. BTW I wouldn't sort this stock either.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    so why didnt you listen to me??

    by aud802009 Nov 28, 2014 10:21 AM
    plat46 plat46 Nov 28, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    yes you were right did you short WLL and have you covered

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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