We've got low volume and tax-loss selling as a negative for the next 3 weeks, hold through that and I think we'll see $5+ and some upgrades (finally) in the 1st quarter of 2015...patience, hang in there longs, with me.
I believe we've put in the bottom and we'll see 11+ soon, and the 9 handle is history after today, congrats to all that had the dry powder to step in below 10, believe you have a double EASY in the next year as we will see 20 again in the next 12 months, stash it away and smile at your good fortune ;-)
JMHO...tax-loss selling, denial or delay in Feb...only 60 days away...watch and see...hope u have less than 5% in this huge gamble...I'll watch from the sidelines having made money on this 3 times...if you bought in below here take your gains, plenty of time to buy in 10-30% lower...just my guess...otherwise mortgage your mom's apartment with ADE, lol!
Two institutional sell-side players I talked with today say the end of the google deal is the best thing that could have happened as now margins are likely to blow up to the upside and provide the eps they need...we'll see, they are the likely buyers up and beyond 14...buckle up, I think they may fare VERY well.
I'm buying on the reversion to mean...ugly, avg cost this time in about 3.55, but still buying...when this finally makes a real and meaningful turn it may be large...come along for the ride, lowest price target is $8, I'll take $6...deluded underwriters, I know...but will move fast on the slightest uptick, see the institutional holders with 12MM and 10MM shares, who likely bought the secondary at 3.75...fun to outperform them AND they will spend to defend their position at some point!
In at 11.50. and 11.39 --- could not be more pleased --- if this goes down a buck I'd triple my position. Totally understand that current shareholders feel burned and disappointed, that was this over-reactive stampede mentality...if there is some powder dry to double up, this is one of those rare occasions where it makes great sense...unfortunately, looking solely at the charts and tax-planning this may get dumped down further and, if so, I'm here to take up the "perceived" garbage...happily!!
New to this one, did some DD, and luv it at these levels, bought a bit and willing to buy more soon up OR down...they missed earnings by $444,000, while that sucks and should be avoided at all costs, as they have hopefully now learned -- it got whacked by $75 million dollars in market cap -- if every employee gave up $444 they would have hit their estimates...I avoid this scenario when margins are shrinking OR sales are eroding, but neither is the case here. Portfolios are window dressing for year end and this will be up huge in early 2015, in my opinion. Nice balance sheet and biz fundamentals. They need to rein in analyst expectations so they can have slight upside surprises EVERY quarter, why is this so hard to learn for a CFO??!!
Got out close to $5
Now b#$%$ck in even bigger, #$%$t 3.65, 3.80 #$%$nd 3.90...
I m#$%$y be compelled to hold this into wh#$%$t I think is #$%$ re#$%$l recovery into 2015 on r#$%$tes.
These guys #$%$re selling #$%$t 45% of NAV --- gr#$%$nted it could go to zero...but the timing of buying here, under $4, seems pretty strong.T#$%$ke #$%$ look #$%$t Blue Mount#$%$in C#$%$pit#$%$l, they just did #$%$n SEC filing for their holdings #$%$nd they just hit #$%$ homerun with ACT, Act#$%$vis ! They m#$%$y plow more into this. They own over 10MM
BLUEMOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 09/30/2014 10,283,531 541,220 5.56 40,106
Re#$%$d more: http://www.n#$%$sd#$%$q.com/symbol/s#$%$lt/institution#$%$l-holdings#ixzz3JSKI#$%$zpN
Agreed...I hopped in at about 4.10 and got the pop to 4.95...I'm in again here at 3.65, there can be some money made on the institutional shifting around, they are in dump mode now, I'll have a taste, looking for a 10% pop as it regresses to the mean...if it gets ANY cheaper, say near 3.50 I'll be IN this in a big way...the assets have VALUE and while this is an ugly beast from 10, someones regret can turn into a nice gain as they flush it out!! JMHO
Go LONG SALT and SBRCY --- split your etrm proceeds 50/50 on those 2 today, we'll compare weekly results here on out ... guaranteed to outperform ETRM
Should have sold those, not bought them --- No reaction post conference call, snake-oil salesmen all over this board. In reality, lot's of doubt, ignore cheerleader ADE.
I'm out, SOLD all of mine :-) Good luck to the rest of you, I simply think it is not going to happen...
Ade, seriously, if you promised yourself you would exercise for 30 minutes for every post you made on this board AND actually did it, you would have already lost more than 20 pounds.
Down she goes, you all are financially tapped out and dreaming too much...look at the chart...she's a stinker.
I'd like to see one of you step up and say you have $50K to support this, and do it before you make the trade, there's nothing left to support this any more, revisit on Friday, January 2nd, 2015.
Red, and those pulling their chips away from now through the end of the year...beat the stampede and get at least SOME cash back into your account, you can buy this cheaper in January as the delay goes on forever. You know how the FDA works, right?
I can't believe anyone is letting their shares go anywhere near $3 --- that is going to look like a big mistake very soon...easily a buy up to $3.50, probably higher once this gains momentum. This is a big inflection point in how management is understanding the wants and needs of the shareholders. Granted so many are underwater, but this is a great entry point for new investors and/or turning your loss into a gain. Just look at the market cap and the metrics once this begins to move into a stage of significant eps upside potential and reality. Great quarter, but take a long-term view of where this is likely headed...sleep well with purchases at these levels. IMHO
I listened to Conference Call, sounded conservatively upbeat. PROFITS !! Anticipating continued improvements in gross margins and tapering out of low margin legacy mix in next 1-2 quarters, and improved cost/expense containment. Appears next couple of quarters at or near break-even with continued long range efforts on high margin 100g/400g products. I believe we should see favorable analyst projections looking at nice profits for 2H 2015, possibly in the area of $0.25 combined for 2H, so current forward p/e of 12 for 2015. If they stay disciplined and on track,
eps for 2016 could be like this q1:$0.10 q2:$0.15 q3:$0.25 q4:$0.30 -- FY2016 $0.80 ($1.20? FY 2017)
So at a fair p/e of 15-25 we may see a $12-$20 stock for the patient investor...just my thoughts.
Could move to $5-$7 in near term as this consensus becomes clear. Seems very inexpensive here.
Sentiment: Strong Buy