This stinks of trying to hide A LOT...this will bottom out at some point...don't nibble too early, what a joke, AND the most complex and indecipherable financial statement I have EVER seen...KKR and others will make money before ANYONE else has a chance...be judicious and read the details...sketchy at best for now.
AH is meaningless nonsense...paint the tape...I think we see up soon...if down, I suggest buy or sell...if you're sick of it, get out...
Not at all liking where it is...but some confidence that brighter times are ahead...
I wish I knew...Initiated my first purchases today trying to catch a falling knife with a good yield...I'll wait and see, the biz should be strong and predictable...one would think/hope
recent price action looks pretty good...we'll see either $3 or 2.25...I think we'll get a very strong glimpse into what lies ahead...guess we'll all see in a few hours, GLTA
This has begun to show strength at times...I know I'm biased, and 'talking my book', but I do think this is close to bearing fruit with the success and future potential and reality of Purion...welcome other thoughts, pro or con...I think we've finally exhausted (or close to exhausting) the appetite of sellers. I think new money would do well here now or on any dips, imho, do your own due diligence...it's meaningless, but my last similar 'big' bet was on NPTN from 3+/- to 11-ish (in short order) on NPTN -- my chips are in here, with some powder ready for more, if the opportunity arises.
This was a steal at 18.08 -- I bought 1000 at 18.20, very pleased, at 1600 long...willing to go long up to 10,000 shares at the right price...this will be above 21 by end of year, total return number is strong...18.30 to $21 plus div = 17% total annual return and a good sleep at night factor...glta
Well...it took 2 weeks to get above 2.50...I believe retail investors dumped (and continue to dump) as institutions (new and with long positions) are building on the cheap with long-term intentions, and patience. If you believe, as I do, that very rich valuations are less than a year away why not build appreciable positions on dips. Time will tell but I feel confident that good things are on the horizon for the very reasons that mgmt pointed out on the last conf call. Growing market share while business on the whole may be sliding is one of the greatest biz strategies out there for magnified returns. A fairly well proven strategy (masterfully exemplified by the Japanese electronics and tech industries in the 90's and beyond) was to undercut pricing to grow market share during industry slumps for an anticipated industry upswing. The ultimate gains are greatly magnified when the inevitable turns occur...if this comes to pass and both occur this stock could approach $10...if we were to see growing margins (likely), growing market share (likely) and an industry upturn (likely), all my opinion...if these were to coincide we will likely experience a stock price certain to double and then some...recent insider buying and gains in AMAT, from 14.36 to 18.36 (up 28%) in the last month take us to $3 in the near term if the momentum continues...with 2.26 as the recent panic low, we could see a retouch of 3.50 and beyond as future prospects are factored in...anyone agree w any of this?
This price is ridiculously low in light of what lies ahead...total head fake for the sellers...sad...not nearly enough dry powder, think buyers will be shocked in 6 months at how well they are doing piling this in at these prices. Of course, just my opinion.
That's an interesting possibility...I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist...but, it would seem a logical strategy...Anyone know if this is possible, likely, or ever been the case??
ACLS beat on earnings. Outlook worse than expected, but by how much. EPS for next quarter, from 5 analysts WAS this: some combination near 0.01, 0.01, 0.02, 0.02, 0.04 -- or 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.03, 0.04, based on 5 analysts in the range 0.01-0.04, avg of 0.02...so with a median est at .01 to .02, we are looking at a likely change/revision in raw earning down from a profit range from 1.1MM to 2.3MM to NEW breakeven guidance, that shortfall resulted in a shaving of $77,000,000 in market cap. I understand the outlook is cloudier and not as expected in terms of revenue, that seems extreme to me...weak and short-term holders may fold, understandably...long-term investors may view the anticipated ACLS market share gains to 17-20% next quarter and 20-30% in 2016, as positive. If this is true and there is an inkling of improvement in business conditions, this should translate into a good rebound...doubters will likely bail with losses, believers may be handsomely rewarded. A $77 million haircut, close to close...and $96 million top Wednesday to bottom Thursday seems extreme to me. Good luck to all.
Yes, I was wrong, I admit it. Not what I expected, but believe this is an overreaction.
Was long about 100K shares, traded out as a slight hedge w some decent gains on about 30K of my 100K near and above $3, picked that 30K up today from 2.33 to 2.45...believe we'll bump back above 2.50 in very near-term and slowly march higher as more wins trickle out via press releases and the outlook improves sooner than worst-case scenario, just my opinion...with 23K in net realized gains on ACLS this year and 30K in paper losses at the moment, my break-even on ACLS is 2.45 and I'm willing to be patient and add if we stay cheap...just giving full disclosure, though I doubt anyone cares...but new entries near this closing price are likely to provide excellent returns, in my opinion...today was a shocker.
The stock got tossed around a bit today...will be interesting to see how it plays out in the coming weeks...please continue to share your thoughts and I'll try to do the same.
I'm always interested in other folks stock picks, ideally BEFORE they've made some sort of 'run-up'.
If you care, I'm long and watching w interest:
ACLS - big time, eps on Wednesday after close, feeling it is very cheap at 2.80, want 3.50+
NPTN reports Monday after the close, pretty volatile
Many others I follow and trade w some frequency, some options too.
Later, I'm Chris btw