There is a pretty good chance that this will continue to surprise to the upside -- Needham did an exceptional job. I think they were (mostly) privately very bullish and put the equity in the hands of long term investors, with the tacit agreement that they would continue to accumulate more post-offering...I'd suspect they have seen and shared the very real possibility that this could have 50-100% upside from the 7.25 offering in
I don't fully understand the magnitude of the win, more detail would be appreciated...I've been accumulating on downdrafts...I think we are going to see a good move up one of these days.
Green is due here for a while...let's get moving
According to Infonetics, datacom 100G transceiver revenue is projected to grow at a 29% compound annual growth rate from 2013 to 2018, reaching $1 billion in 2018. In contrast, revenue from slower speed products such as 10G datacom transceivers is forecast to grow at only a 2% compound annual growth rate from 2013 to 2018.
welcome to the party, Harry...this is not a trade as much as a buy and wait for the double from here. I haven't done a deep dig on the numbers lately, but I do think it is possible they earn .13 .16 .20 .15 for a total of 0.60+ for this year and $1 next year, apply a forward p/e of 30 on the 0.60 and we could, not unreasonably, see $18 price in the next 3-12 months
The next interesting price to eclipse is $9.77...from there we will be in an unwritten chapter for NPTN, should be profitable and interesting...I would expect that to happen between now and August 6th (the day after their next scheduled earnings release. Roughly 54 trading days, 4.7 cents per day, clearly not a straight line, but 3% per week for 11 weeks, pretty good return...buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Good luck, but I think there is plenty of demand above that price...7.05 would be a gift, though. I grabbed 1500 at the last 2 minutes of trading yesterday, and even grabbed the 400 offered at 7.20 in after-hours, why not...I think we'll be back above 7.50 in NO TIME, and my highest buy at 7.64 will be in the black shortly as well...I'm waiting for $12 to consider lightening up at all...good luck to all! I'm thinking this secondary is going to turn out to be a great thing for everyone, extending interest, visibility, liquidity, and finally getting Needham out of the dark and sharing their positive outlook on NPTN with us ALL, not just their clients who are likely getting long on this great story.
Some might call that a sloppy offering, not sure I'd agree. I didn't like being in the dark for 1.5 hours. But I expect we'll be up handily tomorrow, from here, and we'll eclipse the $8 price in less than a week. The only people #$%$ here are those that bought above 7.25 in the last few days (I bought 1500 yesterday at 7.64, but I am fine with this) -- that delay may have been mgmt or someone asking for balance in the book before it opened and 7.25 is better than 7, in some ways. That is VERY good stability for a stock that has run up as fast as this has. Now NEEDHAM (Alex) will be more vocal than ever promoting the merits and future of NPTN, which is fair and accurate. Most importantly the shares now sit with (hopefully) more stable and long term ownership (the Russians all need cash, geopolitically speaking) and they did 5,971,034 with 895,655 on the overallotment option. SO, they oversold it to help support the bid price if necessary (unlikely, if you ask me) AND Needham can hold on their books about 900,000 shares as they run this up to, 8? 9? 10?, and they'll have 30 days to decide that they will essentially take an extra fee, if at $10.25, then $3 x 895K = about $2.7 million dollars for their hard work, on top of the fees and discounts earned...I'll find the prospectus, but usually about 7% of the proceeds, or about $2.8 million (.07x42MM) -- so, now you know why investment bankers get paid a ton. Thanks to the Needham/NPTN relationship, Needham just scored between $2.8MM and $5.5MM on the scenario I just laid out...in their defense, they did serve an important capital market function...and we should all make money and not even care in a week or five.
Someone tweeted secondary 5MM priced at $7 - if so (?) that's fine...the big boys got a gift on a $35MM investment, worth $40MM in minutes or days now...
It would be very unusual to announce pricing or anything related to any offering during market hours. If it was and the deals done I would expect that to be a positive catalyst, removing any uncertainty and putting the shares with someone that WANTS to own them, usually followed by an influx of funds to help elevate the value of the newly acquired asset/stock...not a big deal if that is the news, I'd simply expect a run again up to 8 give or take a bit, maybe 8.25, near term...just guessing...we'll see soon, I imagine?
No idea...Halted 56 minutes ago...nothing yet on the wire...my only guess would be a buyout bid??
I placed a call to NPTN yesterday to get some clarity on that. They called me back before, so I'm being patient. It would be VERY unusual for a company to do that except as some kind of hedge. I am guessing that it has something to do with the EXACTLY 5MM shares owned by the Russian group RUSNANO who had NPTN do an S-5 filing so that they would have the SEC and legal clearance to sell their shares as a secondary offering. I'm trying to think how/why entering into a 5MM option agreement would hedge that potential transaction. If NPTN had agreed to buy it and sell it to another party, say investors, but they had doubts that RUSNANO would deliver the shares, you'd want to cover your butt on the shares appreciating (or depreciating) by having call (or put) options...so, anyway, it seems a waste to guess or speculate...let's get some clarity. I'm suspect of this being some windfall for NPTN, but if that were the case, on just under $4 (profit) x 5MM shares= $20MM, would be pretty spectacular...let's wait and see.
I was again a buyer today, my confidence is very high. Dry powder ready to step up again at prices similar to today's and more so if we drift, bought at 3.14, with confidence. Also added to NPTN at 7.64, happily.
I was again a buyer today, my highest entry, my confidence is very high. Dry powder ready to step up again at prices similar to today's and more so if we drift. Paid 7.64, happily. Also added to ACLS at 3.14, with confidence.