I could not agree more...but in the meantime I am glad as I am trying to continue to build a significant position (by my standards) and the longer that its potential is unrecognized, the better...and its potential is steadily being turned into reality (meaning $$$) -- this is gonna be fun!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think you may very well be correct...I finally read the research brief from Needham, it was published in Barron's and had some very good things to say. It seemed condensed and simple, bottom line was $12 target and some very high earnings projections...for me it is hard to believe how inexpensive this was for so long...that was then, this is now. Good luck everyone!
Support could be at the 9.19 level, from 11.19 on 6/17...just consider it a $2 retracement from the high...just like when it peaked on March 24th at 7.25 and went down to 5.25 on April 6th - $2 on the nose. You could alternatively look at it from a percentage basis and move the downside to $8.10, mirroring the 28% retracement...then it took 2 weeks, perhaps less this time...I'd prefer it move more slowly.
You are right about that, I am sorry and I probably could have and should have kept that to myself. It's the first extended time in front of the screen in weeks. (it was well above 10 when I posted...had some intention to share what I thought for the benefit of others to book some gains...this was, to me, not one to chase)
I do apologize for what appears very tacky in retrospect.
AND - for the record, so YOU can see it BEFORE and AS it happens, I pushed much of the proceeds into ACLS at prices ranging from about 2.88 up to 3.19 -- and I have visited the company. I was and continue to be impressed by the company, their industry, and the deep dive I've done. Speculative yes, but I strongly believe their prospects are exceptional. Do your own due diligence. I believe it can move from $3.06 to about $5 in 4-12 months. A buyout possibility, though small, does exist.
I really don't care if you believe me. I bought 1000's of shares in Oct at 2.33-2.39 and had a position of over 50.000 shares back in Jan/Feb below $3 per share...it seemed risky then...why would I make that up, I have been crushed in enough stocks and this one worked out well. Thanks NPTN !
Order Type: Sold
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Trade date: 06/16/2015
Settlement date: 06/19/2015
Commission & Fees: $7.99
Description: NEOPHOTONICS CORPORATION
"Some might call that a sloppy offering, not sure I'd agree. I didn't like being in the dark for 1.5 hours. But I expect we'll be up handily tomorrow, from here, and we'll eclipse the $8 price in less than a week. The only people #$%$ here are those that bought above 7.25 in the last few days (I bought 1500 yesterday at 7.64, but I am fine with this) -- that delay may have been mgmt or someone asking for balance in the book before it opened and 7.25 is better than 7, in some ways. That is VERY good stability for a stock that has run up as fast as this has. Now NEEDHAM (Alex) will be more vocal than ever promoting the merits and future of NPTN, which is fair and accurate. Most importantly the shares now sit with (hopefully) more stable and long term ownership (the Russians all need cash, geopolitically speaking) and they did 5,971,034 with 895,655 on the overallotment option. SO, they oversold it to help support the bid price if necessary (unlikely, if you ask me) AND Needham can hold on their books about 900,000 shares as they run this up to, 8? 9? 10?, and they'll have 30 days to decide that they will essentially take an extra fee, if at $10.25, then $3 x 895K = about $2.7 million dollars for their hard work, on top of the fees and discounts earned...I'll find the prospectus, but usually about 7% of the proceeds, or about $2.8 million (.07x42MM) -- so, now you know why investment bankers get paid a ton. Thanks to the Needham/NPTN relationship, Needham just scored between $2.8MM and $5.5MM on the scenario I just laid out...in their defense, they did serve an important capital market function...and we should all make money and not even care in a week or five."
And we are off to the races...hope I don't jinx it...this company is positioned for the future, and that future is bright...that will be seen as we approach 8...quickly, I hope.
I agree with your approach, too. I may regret taking most off the table. Almost all was in tax-free accounts, so that was one motivation...I believe it has the potential to double from here...just trying to be prudent and I could easily shift more in at higher or lower prices than it is now...just trying to add some diversification, I was heavily into NPTN with some 50,000 ish shares at one point. I wish all longs well, I am one :-)
No idea what lies ahead...Got concerned seeing Raymond James history on their upgrade over at AAOI. AAOI hit a high, the day of the upgrade (5/26) and has not gone back there since. I think this may stabilize for weeks, in the 9.30-9.80 area until eps gets very close. If they deliver as strongly then as anticipated it may have another leg in it. Since I bought thousands of shares on 10/22/14 between 2.33 and 2.37, I'm happy...I realize that is bragging, but it's true, and it felt like a big gamble that very strange day.
I think we will see earnings reported at or above 4 cents and upward forward guidance, unless they take an ultra-conservative stance. This stock may be worth close to 3.90 by the end of August if things play out as they should...as we enter 2016, I would expect $4.50-ish as the eps for 2015 should be, at a minimum, 15 cents. For 2016 it may be rational to expect 25 cents. So we deserve a p/e of 30 on the 15 cents (at least) putting the fair price at $4.50+. There is a reasonable likelihood for a buyout at 5, if it happens soon, and closer to 6-7 if enough of the eps gains come to fruition. At $5 it is a $570MM deal, we'll see...I'd think this could be a good fold in for any number of semi companies. It appears, to me, to be a bargain at $3.00-$3.40.
My timing was premature, but I bought through the trough...hoping we break 7 soon...I think the hi-yield conference today brought some attention, the positive kind...I'd actually expect 8 or more in the next 2-4 months...we'll see...10 in