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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

play_tow 189 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 23 minutes ago Member since: Dec 16, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Why is VLCCF down so much lately?

    by fj8d8sdfsdru32 1 hour 34 minutes ago
    play_tow play_tow 1 hour 23 minutes ago Flag

    I look forward to your research on those great questions, and the answers.

  • play_tow play_tow 2 hours 39 minutes ago Flag

    They are profitable at the current Cape rates....and charter rates have been fixing quite a bit higher than the spot....so its not like the company is bleeding cash.

    The shares are very volatile, but this might improve eventually when the capitalization is at over 100M shares

  • play_tow play_tow 2 hours 56 minutes ago Flag

    very helpful. Most concerned about Navigator...being an older vessel, and of course the near term, and the high current rate they have for existing charter.

    The utilization of rigs in the Arctic is near 100% (according to recent RDC presentation), that I would lean toward your scenario of "not too difficult".

    Personally, not being hip-tied to Rosneft would make NADL a more attractive investment..

  • The coverage comes from their newly added veteran analyst in shipping,formerly Dahlman Rose & Co. analyst Omar Nokta.

    So, I take some (not sure how much...) comfort in his positive assessment of VLCCF

  • Reply to

    No Signs of Capes Rebound...

    by play_tow 5 hours ago

    12-month target....plenty of time

  • Clarkson Capital assumed coverage on shares of Knightsbridge Tankers Limited (NASDAQ:VLCCF) in a research note issued to investors on Thursday. The firm issued a buy rating on the stock.

    Clarkson Capital has also modified their ratings on a number of other energy stocks in the few days. The firm initiated coverage on shares of Teekay Tankers Ltd.. They issued a hold rating on that stock. Also, Clarkson Capital initiated coverage on shares of Teekay Co.. They issued a buy rating on that stock. Finally, Clarkson Capital initiated coverage on shares of Ship FinanceInternational Limited. They issued a buy rating on that stock.

    Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at Jefferies Group initiated coverage on shares of Knightsbridge Tankers Limited in a research note on Wednesday, September 3rd. They set a buy rating and a $15.00 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Canaccord Genuity upgraded shares of Knightsbridge Tankers Limited from a hold rating to a buy rating in a research note on Friday, August 8th. Finally, analysts at Evercore Partners cut their price target on shares of Knightsbridge Tankers Limited from $16.00 to $15.00 in a research note on Wednesday, July 23rd. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and seven have given a buy rating to the company. The company presently has an average rating of Buy and an average target price of $14.00.

  • Reply to

    NADL Has Very Unique Product

    by borisiam Sep 15, 2014 9:47 PM

    This overlooks the fact that the growth in Arctic DW lies mostly in the Russian Arctic. As of today's view, that territory is closed to western business, for all practical purposes. It is unlikely to be a permanent situation, but it is the current situation.

    This leads to more competition among rig owners and players in the Arctic if the Russian sector is unavailable to them, and that will pressure rates.

  • The expectations for a strong rebound in Cape rates in 2H2014 have failed to be warranted.

    Brazilian exports of iron ore in August were lower than year ago August exports. That was unexpected, and much of the ton mile demand growth for Capes comes out of the Brazilian supply line.

    This is still expected to change, but clearly the Street is beginning to be fatigued by the story line, with no evidence to confirm the premise.

    And, China has banned a significant fraction of "dirty coal" imports, which kills demand for Panas, and that spills to Capes via charter splitting.

    And, China steel production is barely increasing yr o yr, as their economy and the world economy are slowing, not accelerating.

    None of this puts a bid under shares of VLCCF.

  • CEO statements at the Sept Barclays Conference very interesting. They are apparently far along in a build-to-contract for another deepwater asset.

    One gets a strong sense of market knowledge and prudent management in the call. Little speculation, low leverage, and solid performance metrics.

    #$%$ market for RDC is solid, with their industry leading high spec units. Not much competition foreseen on that front, even with the large order backlog....few newbuilds will compete with RDC high specs.

    One simply hears little of the gloom-doom that pervades other drillers and especially the analysts when listening to this call. No soft soaping.....realistic assessment, and very transparent. Refreshing!

  • Excepting a sharp but short-lived plunge during the global financial crisis, RDC shares have been trading about the mid-20s for over a decade.

    To see them this low (new 52-wk low today), even as the company has reinvented itself and secured sector leading UDW contracts on all 4 drillships, now trading at barely 65% book value, can only be understood if the street sees a complete collapse of the deepwater drilling industry in the coming yrs.

  • VLCCF signed their 2009 Cape to a 12 month index charter last week (one of the 3 attributed to Golden Ocean). Recall that VLCCF has a $13,000 break even level....so Cape market is currently very profitable for VLCCF.

    -----------

    Msg 10225 of 10229 at 9/12/2014 9:59:31 AM by

    slhubb

    QuadraLink Fixes Golden Ocean Trio --- from TradeWinds

    Pacific Bulk affiliate opts for period deals for all three Golden Ocean capesizes at a spot-related rate ~

    John Fredriksen’s Golden Ocean Group has fixed out three capesizes to Quadrolink on one-year time charters.

    This week, the charterer took the 169,000-dwt Golden Feng (built 2009) at a spot-market rate plus 3%. TradeWinds understands that Quadrolink, which is connected to Pacific Bulk, has taken two more capesizes from Golden Ocean — the 169,000-dwt Battersea and Golden Shui (both built 2009) — at identical terms in the past few weeks.

    At least two of the vessels have recently been operated spot by Golden Ocean.

    Brokers say there may be several reasons why the Oslo-based owner has chosen period deals at spot-related levels, one being more stable rates and another that it saves management the hassle of fixing a ship every one or two months.

    The period market for capesize bulkers was fairly active this week, with at least four more ships fixed.

    Rio Tinto has taken two units from Rizhao Steel company Cara Shipping.

    The 180,000-dwt Stella Jade (built 2012) and another similar ship have been fixed for two years at $22,000 per day, which is regarded as a fairly firm rate.

    Cara is currently listed with nine capesizes trading and 10 newbuildings of capesize or larger.

    China Bulk Shipping has fixed out a newbuilding — the 180,000-dwt CS Salubrity (built 2014) — to SwissMarine at $23,000 per day.

    Elsewhere, Phaethon has chartered the 178,000-dwt Mineral Dragon (built 2008) for five months to seven months from Belgian owner and operator Bocimar at what is said to be $24,000 per day.

    The spot market for capesizes continues to increase, with the average rate rising $1,600 per day over the past week to $18,600 per day by Wednesday.

    Panamax spot rates were unchanged at $7,300 per day. There appears to be little premium for post-panamaxes over smaller units.

    Torvald Klaveness has taken the 98,000-dwt Jo Jin Maru (built 2012) for 12 months to 14 months at $12,100 per day.

    Scorpio has fixed the 82,000-dwt Aby Jeannette (built 2014) for 11 months to 13 months at $12,000 per day, with an option for a further year at $14,000 per day.

    The spot market for supramaxes increased by $200 per day to $10,500 per day.

    By Trond Lillestolen Oslo

    12 September 2014, 00:00 GMT

  • VLCCF indicated today the closing to its 13 vessel acquisition. A new twist, which wasn't stated earlier to my understanding, is that of the 13 vessels, 2 are the larger Newcastle....rather than all being Capes.

    ___________________
    Knightsbridge Tankers Limited ("Knightsbridge" or "the Company") (VLCCF) is pleased to announce that the first stage of its previously announced vessel acquisition transaction has closed. Knightsbridge has issued 31 million shares in exchange for 11 Cape size bulk carrier newbuildings and two Newcastlemaxnewbuildings.

  • There are some who keep touting the inviability of the SDRL $4/sh dividend. An even cursory read of management statements on this makes it clear that the dividend will always be contingent upon conditions. Those conditions have changed, and if sanctions adversely affect their fleet prospects, then the dividend will be cut.

    But that would be a good event. Note that a 50% cut, to $2/sh would still leave the yield at about 7% (higher than almost any driller), while saving the company $1B in cash flow annually. Such savings would easily cover bumps in the road as the drilling market works thru the soft patch, and SDRL's fleet finds global demand again (even if the Russian Arctic were closed for business)

  • Reply to

    Morgan Stanley Piece Today.....$39 Target on SDRL

    by play_tow Sep 15, 2014 10:53 AM
    play_tow play_tow Sep 15, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    Russian pain threshold is very high, especially when they feel to be in the right.

  • Reply to

    SDRL Shares At 3-Yr Low

    by play_tow Sep 15, 2014 12:41 PM
    play_tow play_tow Sep 15, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    should read "share prices"

    The share price and the dividend are of course not usually mutually exclusive, but the curious matter with SDRL is that share price and dividend have not been well correlated, or so it appears.

  • Buy and hold hasn't been a winning formula here, though if one factors the 3-yrs of dividends since fall 2011, then the total return in near 25%

    Looking forward, IF (big IF..) the current dividend sustains for the next 3 yrs, the total return would be 40%, even if share process are still $29 in Fall 2017.

  • Reply to

    Morgan Stanley Piece Today.....$39 Target on SDRL

    by play_tow Sep 15, 2014 10:53 AM
    play_tow play_tow Sep 15, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    Thats the $4.25 billion dollar question?

    I don't see Putin stepping way from Ukraine, or playing nice to the liking of the West.

    I don't see the West reigning in their sanctions unless Putin plays nice.

    I suspect that it will come to depend on Porochenko and the Ukraine's willingness to cede greater sovereignty (not independence) to the eastern provinces.

    It might also require Ukraine to tone down their urge to join NATO and the Western community of nations.

    None of this seems like a quick process.....

  • Morgan Stanley’s Ole Slorer and Jacob Ng don’t think Seadrill (SDRL) will cut its dividend but acknowledge that the risks that it will are growing. They explain why:

    Bloomberg News
    Despite high leverage, we still believe in Seadrill’s ability to bridge a funding gap via asset backed financing, Seadrill Partners (SDLP) dropdowns, and other corporate transactions. Meanwhile, Seadrill’s contract backlog continues to provide cash flow visibility that could tide it through near-term rig market weakness. However, we now model for a flat dividend through 2016 vs. our prior expectation for dividend growth of $0.01 per quarter past 2Q15.

    Seadrill’s $4.25bn in offshore revenue potential with Rosneft represents ~20% of its consolidated backlog at significant margin premium to current market rates. Rosneft’s Arctic Russia expansion is not only important for Seadrill/North Atlantic Drilling, (NADL) it also impacts near-term global rig demand, so potential failure due to sanctions could further depress an already oversupplied rig market as well as further dent sentiment for Seadrill/North Atlantic Drilling, in our view.

    As a result, Slorer and Ng cut their price target on Seadrill to $39 from $48.

  • Reply to

    Sell First....Ask Later

    by play_tow Sep 15, 2014 10:19 AM
    play_tow play_tow Sep 15, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Yes, and to your point, the overall competition in the HE sector is much less than for drilling elsewhere.

    On the cost curve, Arctic drilling is not as competitive, and it will be important to see the price of oil stabilize, otherwise other players in the HE sector may wait on their development.

    At the same time, the current turmoil in oil markets, and majors reigning in costs overall, sets the stage for the next cycle of higher prices.

    There are virtually no orders for UDW drillships, yet JF has consistently touted the demand side by 2020. He may not have foresee this near term situation, but the long term demand for oil replacement, with many major fields depleting and shale peaking, puts the Arctic in play long term.

  • Reply to

    Sell First....Ask Later

    by play_tow Sep 15, 2014 10:19 AM
    play_tow play_tow Sep 15, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    "if you liked NADL at $11"

    Really? This pearl of wisdom has lost investors 30% of their investment.

    The world for NADL today is not the world when their shares traded at $11!

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