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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

play_tow 163 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 10:15 AM Member since: Dec 16, 2004
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  • play_tow play_tow Aug 27, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Get the co statement right please.....they did not say "the dividend is safe through 2016"

    Here is their statement concerning their current payout...

    "With the recent contract announcements and the solid execution on the financing side, the Board is pleased to report that we feel increasingly comfortable that this period can be extended well into 2016 without any significant recovery in the market. "

  • Reply to

    Takeover Talks with Golden Ocean...

    by play_tow Aug 26, 2014 11:16 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 26, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Here is Golden Ocean conference call details for tomorrow...

    Golden Ocean`s second quarter 2014 results will be released on Wednesday August 27, 2014. Please note that the date is changed compared to the Financial Calendar published December 23, 2013.

    In connection with the release a presentation and a teleconference/webcast will be held as described below:

    1. Presentation
    A presentation of Golden Ocean`s second quarter 2014 results will take place in Oslo at Filipstad Brygge 1 in Swedbank First Securities` premises on Wednesday August 27, 2014 at 08:30 A.M. If you wish to attend please confirm to our Reception at +47 22 01 73 40

    2. Teleconference and webcast
    A conference call will be held at 03:00 P.M. Central European Time (9:00 A.M. EST and 9:00 P.M. Singapore time) on Wednesday August 27, 2014. The presentation will be available for download from the Investor Relations section at (under "Presentations") Wednesday morning.

    In order to listen to the presentation you may do one of the following:

    a. Webcast
    Click the "Webcast" link on To listen to the conference call from the web, you need to have installed Windows Media Player, and you need to have a sound card on your computer.

  • Highlighted on Tradewinds...www dot tradewindsnews dot com

    Still a speculation, but clarity may come on Golden Ocean cc....

  • Reply to

    How do the upcoming rates look for vlccd

    by perry20273 Aug 25, 2014 2:35 PM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 25, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    I believe, for the next 3-5 months, seasonality is your best forecast for rate movement. We are entering the typical time of ramping coal demand, and also grain harvest shipments. A glance at historical graphs of the BDI, and the Cape index even more so, finds this to be a period of rising rates.

    Barring a surge in vessel supply in Q3-Q4....which is not in the cards as per orderbook, and given the 2H ramp,in Brazil iron ore exports, Cape rate especially should rise nicely (with of course the usual Volatility).

  • Intermune buyout caused the sector to pop, and cash to return to biotech.

    By the way, Intermune bought out at about 7x revenue for peak sales estimates of their new drug.

    If PA were to achieve $500M peak world sales (conservative), then might a suitor look to pay 7x revenue, or $3.5B for POZN. Of course not, given the different profit margins.

    But it's not a stretch to see a $1B valuation by suitor (like Sanofi). That takes use to a $30 buyout....close to numbers others are seeing for valuation for POZN shares post PA approval.

  • After the pre-release of the miss, Evercore Partners reduced to Equal-weight and $11 target

    Evercore Partners downgraded StealthGas (NASDAQ: GASS) from Overweight to Equal Weight with a price target of $11.00 (from $12.00).

  • These metrics have likely not changed, and are very supportive for a stronger share price than currently reflected:

    ° The small orderbook and strong demand dynamics support stable / rising charter rates and high utilization.

    ° LPG charter rates volatility history: $7,000 during the bottom of the cycle vs $13,000 at the peak.

    ° Average all inclusive Breakeven is ~$6,250 per ship.

    ° Current average rate for Modern vessels is $9,500 – $10,000 per day.

  • Reply to

    Cape Index up 8% Today...

    by play_tow Aug 21, 2014 9:37 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 22, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    the share issuance may be one matter near term.....first in September 2014 and then in March 2015 I recall.

    About 110 million shares will be outstanding come 2015....or about $1.3B market cap. If a Cape can generate $25,000/day rate, then their 39 vessel fleet generates $400M annual charter revenue, implying shares would be trading at 3.3 x revenues at current price. That is not particularly cheap nor expensive.

    The issue is their EBITDA. If break-even is at $13,000/day as per last quarter (btw....they would be paying their current dividend at the break even level easily because of positive EBITDA) , then a $25,000 day rate would generate tremendous additional free cash of about $200M annually, or about $2/share. Plenty of room for fleet expansion, and dividend increases.

    So, can their Eco-Capes earn $25,000/day (or more) over the next few years? That is the question....

  • following the Aug 7 cc, Stifel wrote the following:

    2Q14: Strong Execution and 2015 Guidance Instills Confidence
    HZNP reported strong 2Q14 with revenues of $66.2mn (Consensus $60.2mn, about +27% q/q), with across-the-board growth through its successful, volume-driving PME program. All products demonstrated strong double digit growth led by Vimovo ($42.4mn, +25% q/q), Duexis ($17.8mn, +28% q/q), Rayos ($3.9mn, +18%) and Lodotra ($2.0mn, +70%) with EBITDA growing significantly (+215% q/q, x-Vidara costs). This translated to an EPS beat of $0.21 (Consensus $0.14). In light of recent ESI/Caremark news, whose impact management believes will be marginal. HZNP has accelerated marketing of PME and will reposition the sales force to prioritize high-value geographies and physician practices. As evidence, management issued impressive 2015 guidance: revenue of $380mn-$405mn (incorporating Actimmune), and preliminary EBITDA of $150-$170mn. Outlook: We view today’s strong guidance as further support of HZNP’s successful execution track record. We expect value-driving BusDev following Vidara closing. Maintain Buy rating and $20 target price.

    Impact of exclusion list likely marginal: Though ESI/Caremark impacts 20-30% of Vimovo/Duexis prescriptions, management provided rationale behind its expectation for minimal business impact. Based on other therapeutics placed on exclusion lists, not only had rejection rates only marginally increased (~5-10%) but prescription declines in the 6-months following exclusion were only 13-15%. Additionally, analyzing behaviors of other PBMs (~60 PBMs), there was no change in rejection rates, nor had these PBMs followed suit. Currently, the majority have no mechanism beyond step-edits, prior authorizations and high co-pays.
    Many tools at its disposal: HZNP continues to drive prescriptions through PME, with Duexis at 39% penetration (45% through July) and Vimovo at 14% (22% through July). PME removes nuisance factor for physicians and ensures patient compliance with GI protection, while patients are ensured of prescription fill. In PME offices alone, prescribing increased 71% first four months of this year. As such, management believes PME remains a valuable tool to overcome reimbursement challenges. HZNP will simultaneously reprioritize efforts on high-value areas, where managed care plans are less restrictive (to avoid high subsidy rates). Finally, not to be forgotten, with the removal of extreme rebates to ESI/Caremark, the value of each prescription increases. These factors together should allow HZNP to continue to drive sales through 2015.
    Adjusting estimates up on strong 2015 guidance: As a result of HZNP’s excellent execution and strong guidance, we feel confident in re-adjusting our numbers up, which incorporates continued volume growth with modest price increases. We increase 2014 revenues to $274mn from the strong quarter and bring 2015 to $384mn. (See estimate changes table). This assumes the closing of Vidara, which awaits only the 9/18 shareholder vote. Following closing, we expect HZNP to increase its product acquisition activity to leverage its infrastructure.

  • A few points struck me, from the Q&A:

    1. AF emphasized that NNA is a growth company, in response to a Q about dividend...I read this to mean that they will use cash flow growth to fund acquisitions (hence the company name) as the most beneficent use of monies for shareholders. There will be no imminent dividend increase.

    2. Combination of VLCC and Product vessels a powerful complement in NNA portfolio....I read this to mean that NNA will not spinoff the crude transport part of their fleet as a separate entity, a Q raised by an analyst.

    3. VLCC term charter rates are strengthening and expected to strengthen further according to AF. Current rates for 3-yr above $30,000/day. AF suggested that they would be favorably inclined to roll their current short term vessels into such lucrative long term rates should they eclipse $40,000/day. My read on this is that the VLCC investment was extremely well timed, and is likely the pay off extremely well to shareholders

    4. NNA is especially well positioned to benefit from the US condensate export, since the vessels able to do such loading in US ports are restricted by size, and can be only handled currently by MRs and LR1s (LR2 are too large). NNA product fleet is wholly MR and LR1.

    5. Global refinery build out, mainly expansion in far East and Middle East at the expanse of West will increase product tanker demand that exceeds the current 21% order book, even without considering that over 20% of fleet is over 20 yrs old, with some considerable single hull vessels which will be scrapped.

  • They previously carried a Street high target price of $6. So, this reduction is more to align with current trading of hares and other coverage. Their thesis is otherwise very bullish:

    Reiterate Buy rating. Given NNA shares are trading at a 5.9% dividend yield, despite those dividends making up just 19% of 2015 operating cash flow, and the shares trading at just 6.1x 2015 P/E and 4.3x 2016 P/E, we believe NNA is the most undervalued name among our coverage list. Our new $5.50 target price is based on NNA shares trading at 9-10 times 2015 EPS of $0.56.

  • play_tow by play_tow Aug 21, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Shares hit a new 52 wk low today, and share price near the lows of the past 5-yrs.

    You'd think, from the price action, that their fleet just sunk.......

  • Spot Cape at $17,520 today.....

    up about 90% since beginning of month

  • play_tow play_tow Aug 20, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    important clarification. Thanks.

  • play_tow play_tow Aug 20, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Treximet helped POZN be able to fund the PA trials and submission, without needing partner assistance or share dilution.

    And now Treximet may yet pay more dividends. It is also likely that this new partner will more aggressively market US Treximet. While that won't benefit POZN immediately, it is sometimes forgotten that POZN will once again receive royalties from US Treximet sales, beginning in 2018 (3 1/2 yrs out) at the tune of 20%. Lots could change then, generics could enter the picture....but it is with watching as a dark horse contender for significant future revenues.

  • Reply to

    Amazing Week....Spot Cape Rates Climb 60%

    by play_tow Aug 15, 2014 9:48 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 20, 2014 10:30 AM Flag


  • Reply to

    EXM Fleet Purchase....Winning or Losing Bet?

    by play_tow Aug 19, 2014 7:48 PM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 20, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    You don't read much.

    They didn't acquire EXM, and their huge debt overhang.

    They bought the assets of EXM, picked the most favorable, and purchased those at a current appraised market value.

    And the vessel will all delivery in the next 4 months, and thus immediately contribute to top line.

  • Some large players in drybulk,have been making the case that Eco Designed vessels makes them compliant with future port emission rules, more desirable by charterers, and cheaper to operate. None of those attributes apply to the EXM fleet purchased today.

    On the other hand, the cost of newbuilds for the equivalent fleet of 34 vessels would have been much higher. And, the ability to put these 34 vessels to work before yr end, as the market is strengthening, is a bonus.

    Indeed, many of the Starbulk newbuilds, especially the Newcastles, will not deliver till mid 2015 and 2016. Today's purchase will have an immediate contribution to revenues.

    SBLK will have a very diverse portfolio....more,so,than even SALT.

    But is that the best positioning? Again, sector analysts see the best prospects for the CAPE sector. This purchase only adds 6 Capes. Panamax and Kasmarmax may struggle.

    If profit margins are zero, no matter of expansions will help the bottom line. Clearly , SBLak has made a big bet of a large recovery in drybulk shipping, across all asset sizes. That's their bet.

    Let's hope its a winning one. Th good new for the sector is that SBLK refrained from ordering more newbuilds and further increase the glut of vessels.

  • Reply to

    More Consolidation....SBLK Buys EXM Fleet

    by play_tow Aug 19, 2014 10:08 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 19, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Div isn't driving shares at the moment.

    The BDI is, and especially the Cape index....whose moves trump all.

    Today's selloff is likely part of the noise in daily trades, though perhaps linked in some way to money favoring SBLK on their purchase today (though I much prefer the Eco-modern, CAPE focused exposure of VLCCF).

  • I wouldn't be surprised to see more of this, for instance VLCCF may very well be in the market for the Golden Ocean fleet at some point. However, VLCCF may wish to stay a pure Cape play, and not acquire the Panamax fleet of Golden Ocean. IN any case, I would expect VLCCF to build its Cape fleet further in the coming year.

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