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Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Message Board

play_tow 178 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Dec 16, 2004
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  • Maybe most telling to me was the very positive view that the management has for the 2015 and 2016 periods.

    They also indicated that they would be adding nearly $1/sh in annual earnings via their six NB deliveries (first arrives in Nov 2015), assuming VLCC rates of about $60,000/day.

    They foresee the NBs plying in spot, owing to their very efficient fuel consumption, and low cost structure.

    They would entertain longer term (long than 1 yr) for their current fleet as they become more lucrative. Current rates are more favorable for 1-yr TCs (in the upper $40s).

    They are deleveraging, improving their balance sheet, and will continue in that mode till debt as % of book value is below 50%. Currently ratio is about 57%. At that point, they could increase cash return.

    They expect further vessel price appreciation, and given current charter rates, have no intentions to sell any of their vessels....but that will become an option.

    They have strong growth profile given the 6 NBs.

    Very sensible, prudent, and DHT will be a long term force as the market conditions swing as they always do in oil transport. Key is that they are positioning themselves to be a substantial dividend player, with a growth profile.

  • The weakness is counter the strength in rates, the timely deliveries, and solid prospects.

    _____________
    MONACO--(Marketwired - Jul 19, 2015) - Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE: STNG) (the "Company") announced that it has agreed to sell 6 million common shares of Dorian LPG Ltd. (NYSE: LPG) owned by the Company to BW Euroholdings Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of BW Group Limited, for a purchase price of $15.34 per share. The shares will be sold pursuant to an effective resale registration statement filed by Dorian LPG on July 8, 2015, and are expected to be delivered to BW Euroholdings Limited on or around July 22, 2015.

    Following the sale, the Company will continue to own 3,392,083 shares of Dorian's common stock, which is approximately 5.8% of Dorian.

  • play_tow play_tow Jul 24, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    indeed. and that is good news, suggesting management has not yet had its hands tied.

    doesn't change the thesis, however, and the fact is that the share price move undoes the div payout today.

  • The shares are discounting a risk of reduction in the dividend, and perhaps its eventual elimination.

    That would be the prudent tact to take, and one the banks and bondholders will soon insist upon in order to
    preserve capital and allow NE to service its debt during what now is looking like a longer and deeper down cycle than envisioned 6 months ago.

    Those buying for the dividend will be sorely disappointed, as today shows again since the shares are down in an hour an amount equal to 3 months dividend payout!

  • Having seen early termination of UDW rig contracts in the drilling sector, and apparent strong contracted backlogs vanish, can the same occur in the LNG shipping segment?

    Is that why the shares of GLOG and others have plummeted, even though they have a backlog of charters spanning many yrs?

    Even though there is an expectation that LNG supply will be forthcoming, and unmet by vessel shipping capacity, is there a threat to this story should oil (and the indexed price of Asian LNG) stay below original estimates?

  • It will need to happen as survival mode, satisfy creditors, and support their ability to service their debt, while awaiting signs of oil market rebound.

    The latter is now being pushed beyond their hedge window...the recognition of that likelhood is what is driver shares down recently, imo.

  • At $16.16, announced today.

    Perhaps they felt a need for the cash. Though today's sale only raised $50M

    I doubt it reflects on their confidence in LPG, or the growth prospects.

    Seems like they did not fare too well on their investment, but I don't recall the exact
    terms of the effective price at which they acquire the position.

  • They must have needed the money, or felt LPG shares were fully valued with little prospect for appreciation?

    Sold remaining for $16.16 to Sino Energy group.

  • Reply to

    MLP Eligibility to be Reexamined by IRS

    by play_tow Jul 22, 2015 10:50 AM
    play_tow play_tow Jul 22, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    I recall they have one coming offer in mid 2017, but all others run till 2018 and beyond.

  • By read of a Bloomberg piece last week is that the IRS is reexamining the rules and requirements for an MLP. IN the energy space, Ive read that they require the MLP be linked directly to energy production/refining.

    Not sure how this might affect transport-related MLP entities.

    Could this be why the likes of GMLP, TGP, and GLOP have done nothing by fall the last several weeks, all to 52-wk or even multi-yr lows?

  • as announced today,

    "DHT intends to return at least 60% of its ordinary net income (adjusted for extraordinary items) to shareholders. "

    IN Q1, there were no indicted extraordinary items. Their financials indicated a "basic earnings per share" of 0.25/sh. I assume this equates to the "ordinary net income" to which today's press release speaks. of course, had there been special items, then the basic earnings would have differed from the ordinary net income.

    Note that 60% of Q1 basic earnings was 0.15/sh---- the actual dividend that was paid.

    In this sense, there will not be a material change in the div. payout in Q2 (since net income will be only slightly different from Q1). Given rent fixtures, Q3 could see some increase in their net income (remember that 40% of their fleet is fixed charter).

    The largest change would occur, assuming market rates stay strong, as their fleet expand, with a new VLCC to be delivered beginning in Nov 2015, and then every 2 months thereafter till all 6 are in the water by Q3 2016.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by ebruzek Jul 22, 2015 9:24 AM
    play_tow play_tow Jul 22, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    I think your assessment is about right. The 6 new VLCCs are a major expansion and an investment of about $700M. With the huge (and mostly unexpected) cash flow in Q1/Q2/Q3 and likely also Q42015, they can position them selves for a low breakeven on the fleet. They can also elect to retain a fleet of about 20 VLCC, rather than be compelled to sell their several older VLCC at this time. They are earning amazing rates in today's market, and have greater valued owned than sold. For instance, at a $60,000/day TCE these 15-yr old vessels in 2015 would generate about $20M in revenue. The current market price for sale is about $40M. Much better to ply these vessels again for 2016, and if thereafter the market sours, sell or scrap then.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by ebruzek Jul 22, 2015 9:24 AM
    play_tow play_tow Jul 22, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    CEO continues to guide for a prudent, rather than expansionary, management of their business.

    __________________
    HAMILTON, Bermuda, July 22, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- DHT Holdings, Inc. (DHT) ("DHT") today announced a new policy regarding dividend and capital allocation. As a result of the current tanker market, DHT intends to return at least 60% of its ordinary net income (adjusted for extraordinary items) to shareholders. Further, DHT intends to use a significant amount of surplus cash flow after returning such capital to shareholders to delever its balance sheet. DHT will commence its new capital allocation policy starting with the second quarter of 2015.

  • play_tow by play_tow Jul 21, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    The weakness in share price is a problem for GLOP owing to the significant increase in the equity cost of capital. Due to a lower stock price, the use of share capital via SPOs will entail considerably greater shares than previously expected.

    The cost in dividends will rise given the much larger share count increase. It is likely that other financing methods for dropdowns will be needed, but those will likely not lead to accretion to current dividend rates.

  • As part of their 8-K filling, CEO attached their latest roadshow for Aralez.

    Lots of great info. Calling not out especially: revenue projections

    2015: $50M
    2016: $100M
    2017: $150M
    2018: $220M

    Of course, these are only projections, but the growth prospects are quite stunning.

    Also, aggressive move to market Yousprala and Trexmet in Canada and EU, approval by 2017.

  • not much of a bump on JPM, but atleast they see the positive market dynamics to which DHT is exposed

  • play_tow play_tow Jul 17, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    post evidence please.

    Regardless, now is the time to accumulate. Div of 10%, secure for yrs to come.

    Contracts for all carriers are fixed, new deals (close to 10 new builds) all with long term charters pre-arranged with majors, and with deals that are all accretive.

    little rational reason to sell here, or to suggest to anyone that they should sell....

  • Reply to

    DHT Trader and DHT Ann Charter Changes

    by play_tow Jul 16, 2015 2:22 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jul 16, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    I wonder if that hire was as a sublet, or directly thru DHT.

  • According to the company web site, the Suezmax DHT Trader has secured a T/C, and left spot. The VLCC DHT Ann has completed its T/C, and been repositioned in spot.

    Not sure if the Samco Amazon (which was due to come off charter in Q2) has begun a new time charter, or if the earlier agreement is still in place. I expect that vessel to go to spot shortly...

  • Nice

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