400,000 dwt VALEMAXS , 35 delivered to date and more ordered.
They are severely undercutting the need to use Capes....doing roundabout from shipowners.
I don't expect Capes to recover much thanks to both the huge order book (20%) and the fact that ore producers are building their own fleets.
The question stands....how do ship owners reconcile their expansions knowing that the bulk producers build their own fleets? VLCCF is especially exposed to this . Is there enough business for all? The Cape order book alone, which doesn't include Newcastles and Valemaxs, is 20% of fleet. Scrapping is not going to redress the imbalance since the fleet is now quite modern. Are the new Eco vessels that much more competitive and desire able for hire?
Answers to that would be helpful.....
Vale's decision to build its own fleet (35) of 400,000 dwt "ValeMax" has put a big hurt on shipowners of Capes.
Im wondering what JF and others like SBLK and SALT CEOs, who hold a huge fraction of the current Cape orderbook, are thinking? When the ore producers can also produce the vessel to haul their bulk, what role is there left for the shipowners?
Vale's decision of constructing a fleet of 400,000-ton ore carriers has been widely criticized by other shipping companies. The new Valemax ships, expected to cut the company's transportation costs by 20–25%, are blamed for driving down the freight rates for the entire industry, swelling the already oversupplied bulk transportation market and stalling the recovery of the shipping business after the financial crisis.
The freight rates, down 80% from 2008, are expected to drop further down to the levels of 1977. According to the chief executive of BIMCO, the Valemax vessels could displace up to 168 150,000–180,000-ton capesize bulk carriers, around 15% of the existing fleet, from the long haul voyages and force them to less profitable shorter routes. Vale has responded to the criticism by stating that the company aims to permanently cut the costs of Atlantic-Pacific dry bulk shipping to make Brazilian ore more competitive against iron ore produced in Australia, which is closer to major customers in Asia.
This piece from mid-June 2014....at the time shares trade above their target price, and they were the lowest target. The key is the tone of the piece....
Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage on Knightsbridge Tankers (NASDAQ: VLCCF) with a Hold rating and a price target of $13.00.
Analyst Noah Parquette highlights:
Pure play on attractive Capesize segment of dry bulk: Knightsbridge focuses purely on the Capesize sector of dry bulk, which is highly leveraged to the fast-growing iron ore and coal trades. Knightsbridge is expected to have 39 modern Capesizes on the water by the end of 2016, which would make it one of the leading owners of that class of ship.
Dividend upside as cycle rebounds: VLCCF pays out a substantial dividend, currently at $0.20 per quarter. As the newbuild fleet is delivered and we approach mid-cycle levels later in 2015, we believe there is significant room for the dividend to expand, as the current dividend represents just 32% of our forecasted 2016 operating cash flow.
Backed by one of the biggest names in shipping: The recent acquisition of 25 vessels from Frontline 2012 will ultimately result in Frontline 2012 owning 70% of Knightsbridge. As a result, John Fredricksen, one of the most well-known and successful names in shipping, is a significant shareholder in VLCCF.
This is a useful summary following the announced purchase of JF's remaining VLCC fleet in spring 2014:
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Knightsbridge Tankers: Management Signals Confidence For Future Distribution Increases
May. 12, 2014 10:54 AM ET | About: Knightsbridge Tankers, Limited (VLCCF)
Disclosure: I am long VLCCF. (More...)
VLCCF recent distribution increase to $0.20 from $0.175 is not a singular, opportunistic gesture based on Q1 2014 settlement income.
VLCCF expansion to 39 ships by end of 2016 creates compelling case for rapidly-ascending distributions.
We foresee VLCCF paying out $0.89, $1.64, $2.40 and $2.60 annually in years 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively.
We foresee distribution growth providing for 100% upside potential in stock price by 2016-2017.
On May 8, 2014, Knightsbridge Tankers, Ltd. (VLCCF) reported its first quarter 2014 earnings. The market responded favorably to the shipper's financial results and the stock rallied roughly 8% to close at $12.92. In addition to significantly improved revenues, VLCCF declared a $0.20 distribution - a 14% increase compared to the $0.175 distribution VLCCF has paid out over the past seven quarters.
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Over the short term, investors must be cognizant that VLCCF received a $9.7 million settlement during the first quarter and included that figure as part of its net income. This is not an insignificant amount - it is the equivalent of roughly $0.32 per share based on the 30.5 million shares used in calculating the shipper's first quarter earnings. This suggests that VLCCF earned only $0.03 outside of the settlement income, which could be classified as an extraordinary item.
Some VLCCF investors have suggested this $0.025 quarterly distribution increase is an opportunistic bonus distribute
Its quite probable that VLCCF will be paying a substantial dividend in coming years.
Their all cost, break-even on VLCCs is $15,000/day. Even in the current weak spot environment, 12-18 months TCs were being signed (e.g., DSX recently) at near $25,000/day.
The turn in prospects for VLCC will largely hinge on the iron ore trade, the flooding of the market with cheap high quality Brazilian and Aussie ore, and the shuttering of private uneconomical low quality China ore producers.
Also, opening of the Panama canal to VLCC by 2016 will increase transport of ore as a competitive source vs local China/India mining.
There will certainly be a large increase in VLCC supply in the coming 24-36 months, but the indications are that those will be soaked up by this fundamental change in market dynamics on the demand side.
Concerning Capes and Spot......Look at the recent 18-month Cape charter that DSX did for about $24,000/day.
The spot listed is much lower than the various "pools" that the owners use, and fails to reflect the "solid" and stable rates still being set for term charter fixtures.
Obviously, if spot were to dictate the earnings solely, the shares of DSX and others would be much lower....
There is no reason to believe, from the info that we have as investors, that the deficiencies are not satisfactorily addressed. Here is what POZN stated in their resubmission PR on 1 July:
"“Our API supplier has been working to respond to the observations contained in the FDA inspector’s report. We recently completed our own onsite audit, and we understand that the supplier has now submitted a supplement to its May 9, 2014 initial response to the FDA,” said John Plachetka, chairman, president and CEO. “Based upon the available information, we believe there are actions in place that address the deficiencies noted by FDA.”
The cost of hiring oil tankers in the North Sea jumped by a record amid speculation that companies are seeking the vessels to stockpile cargoes at sea as future crude prices incentivize the trade.
Rates for Aframaxes to ship 80,000 metric tons of crude, about 600,000 barrels, surged 54 percent to 170.50 Worldscale points, according to the Baltic Exchange in London. The increase is the largest in a single day since at least 1998, excluding at the start of trading each year when the Worldscale price system is reset to take account of changes to fuel costs and port fees.
Brent futures for September jumped 64 cents to $107.49 a barrel today, about $1.35 more than August contracts, according to data on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. When the gap between immediate and later prices gets wide enough, it sometimes covers the cost of hiring ships and selling the oil later at the higher price. The difference between the two months widened amid signs that supplies from Libya may rebound following a yearlong blockade of the nation’s eastern ports.
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“I have spoken to many owners and the reason is that there are a lot of cargoes in the market but no ships to store them,” Haykel Sahraoui, an analyst at Geneva-based shipbroker Riverlake Group, said by phone.
Today’s surge in shipping rates also drove up the amounts owners earn from charters. Day rates for Aframaxes in the North Sea climbed more than threefold to $66,039 and have risen almost eightfold in a week.
Analysts at Bank of America Corp. and Energy Aspects Ltd. said in the past two days the current oil-price curve, known as a contango structure, is sufficient to encourage floating storage, a trade once used by companies including BP Plc and Citigroup Inc.
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JBC Energy GmbH said yesterday the contango needs to widen further while Dynacom Tankers Management, a Glyfada, Greece-based tanker owner, no vessels had been booked for storage. The August Brent crude future expires today. The difference between September and October prices is about 23 cents.
I think this is a good summary.
It is possible that TNP could position some of their Panamax for dirty haul to take advantage of rates.....is there any indication to that effect?
It may be irrelevant (or maybe not), but Summer Street has recently been co-managers on the March 2014 share offering.
Flamel Technologies, S.A. (NASDAQ: FLML) today announced the pricing of an underwritten offering of American Depositary Shares (ADSs), representing 10,800,000 ordinary shares, at a price to the public of $9.75 per ADS. All of the ADSs in this offering are to be sold by Flamel. Flamel has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,600,000 ADSs to cover over-allotments, if any, in connection with the offering. The offering is expected to close on March 12, 2014, subject to customary closing conditions.
JMP Securities is acting as the sole book-running manager of the offering. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc., Roth Capital Partners and Summer Street Research Partners are acting as co-managers of the offering.
It looks like Summer Street's Jim Molloy is making strong ongoing pitches for FLML...
FDA change on neostigmines could be significant for Flamel, says Summer Street
Summer Street notes that the FDA has changed its drug shortage website and now lists Flamel Technologies' Bloxiverz as the "first and only" approved neostigmine, which the firm thinks may mean that the FDA could be taking action to remove unapproved neostigmines from Fresenius or West-Ward Pharma. Summer Street thinks this change could be a "hugely significant" milestone for Flamel and its Eclat strategy and reiterates its Buy rating and $24.75 price target on the share.
Summer Street's Jim Molloy had darted coverage on 9 April 2014:
Summer Street initiates coverage on Flamel Technologies (NASDAQ: FLML) with a Buy rating and a price target of $25.00.
Analyst Jim Molloy comments, "FLML is a specialty pharmaceutical company that is at the exciting transition point to an earnings and cash flow positive story after many years of losses. Bloxiverz for reversing the effects of muscle blocks rolled out in 4Q13/1Q14, and we anticipate additional near-term accretive approvals through 2014-2016 from FLML's Eclat portfolio, with its internally developed pipeline expected to mature in 2015+ with products targeting some of the largest markets in pharmaceuticals. FLML has multiple shots on goal following the near-term EPS drivers, and we believe FLML is well positioned to continue to drive shareholder value in 2014 and beyond."
TNP Panamax are clean product carriers (not crude), and 5 of them went on 3-yr chartered (last yr) at rates of about $16,000/day.
The dirty Panamax rates are largely irrelevant for TNP operations.
It appears Wall Street speaks louder than Summer Street. The later's $25 target is being dissed by the former, who have driven the shares down 7% from its trading position on Monday.
Perhaps lost among the chatter, it is worth noting that the PR today states the following:
"POZEN has agreed substantively to FDA’s most recent draft product labeling."
On April 25, after receiving the CRL, POZN STATED "Final agreement on the draft product labeling is also pending."
This is a significant step no to be overlooked, since labeling can undercut the sales potential for an approved drug. This clearly will not be the case with PA.