Drillers bringing 7th Gen equipment to the market, like PACD and SDRL will not accept short term contracts, IMO. There is a need for this new , safe driving equipment (compared to 4th and 5th Gen UDWs).
SDRL is likely waiting out for such a contract with Tellus, a modern UDw now ideal for several months.
PACD will, IMO, wait for multiyr contract on Meltem, and I believe at solid rates near $500K/day
It's pretty clear, with shares selling far below book, and that a buyout with all debt would be a steal, that VTG is among the lowest priced drillers. Their UDW assets are secured thru 2016. Their other units are highly competitive and modern.
The potential for large share price recovery is high, and bottom (which I don't pretend to be calling...) is likely not far from today's trades.
I doubt they would pay debt down, since debt maintenance is not the issue, in my view.
I see they raising the cash to be able to acquire existing assets in the backlog that were speculative, and are no longer likely to be delivered but would be for sale.
There has been no appetite for additional UDW and other drillship build orders for many months now, and this situation is not likely to change in 2014. Yet, the need is there beyond 2016 for new equipment. SDRLs backlog of newbuilds, some 21, which is viewed today as a liability, is likely to be seen as an attribute before too long, IMO.
With SDLP raising cash in 2 recent offerings, I expect to see another DropDown of SDRL assets soon.
SDRL gas tremendous financial flexibility, with SDLP being just one avenue where it can raise cash.
While I don't expect this, it's worth noting that a reduction in div to $2/ SH, would free $1B in cash flow annually, while still retaining a very generous 8% yield.
Debt maintenance, not debt.....that's what matters. And, when looking at the ongoing weakness in global demand growth, low inflation (even deflation bias), ongoing central bank easy money is not going away. So, don't fret about SDRL debt.
PACD is being hit hard today. You raise some compelling issues as to how a cascade of lower contracts may be in the offering based on clever management by those looking to drill.
I dont dispute this view....sure hope its not mark on.
I only add that many of the drillers have long term relationships with the oil majors and other exploration entities. I don't see it constructive for them to squeeze their partners doing the drilling. To be sure, reasonable market rates must be transacted given current conditions.
Could it be that a newbie, like PACD that is just building its client relationships, is at a disadvantage and prone to your scenario, but more established players less so?
indeed....it hard to explain this as random market (since its such a strong down day), but that there is something
stirring about PA.
Maybe the CFO is speaking to more people (LOL)
Indeed, Pareto Securities commented on a order for 20 Valemax today, and its adverse impact on this sector given current order book.
Ive seen enough, and exited position for now. It strikes me that the major ore producers themselves do not feel the need for any discipline concerning ship supply, as they shouldn't, since their interest is to deliver the ore at lowest possible price. Owners in shipping have not done themselves any favors by constantly adding to the order book themselves. Perhaps there are too many players wanted to be big fish in this pond, and in the process killing all the fish (and themselves) in their feeding frenzy.
Today's report on Cape and Newcastle Newbuild orders is an indication for optimism for the large bulk carriers....or it's an indication for simple insanity among owners. I'll continue to lean toward the rational view (you figure which one it is)
"The shipbroker added that “on the wet side, another sale in the product segment, that of “SC LAURA” (109k, 2001, China) which has been reported sold in the region of USD14.5 Mill, declares the price difference between the #$%$anese units, when compared to the sale of the “SC SARA” (105k, 2001, #$%$) at USD 17.2 earlier this month. However, despite the various sales that have taken place in the product sector, strong enquiries for crude tankers are still there, heading to the traditionally strong 4th quarter. Lastly on the Newbuilding front, a U.S. based company namely “MGTECK” has set a remarkable order of 18 Newcastlemaxes in SWS in addition to another 6 Capesize vessels in JES. All vessels are going to be delivered between 2016-2018, added on top of the existing orderbook, which consists of 165 Capers and 100 Newcastlemaxes”, the company’s report concluded.
Similarly, on the newbuilding front, Clarksons Hellas reported “a notable volume of ordering in dry this week; starting with the largest sizes, Prosperity Investment 2011 (COSCO) confirmed an order for four firm 208,000dwt Newcastlemax at SWS with delivery in 2017. It also came to light that Kumiai Navigation contracted two firm 209k Newcastlemax at NACKS. Thought to have been signed some months ago, delivery of both vessels is within the end of 2016. In addition to the above, COSCO also contracted six firm 81,600dwt Kamsarmax at Chengxi with delivery split between 2016 and 2017. Also in China, Blue Planet Shipping have declared options at Nantong Hongqiang for three further 64,000dwt Ultramax. This takes the series to five firm vessels with the latest lined up to deliver in 2016. The only fresh order in #$%$an to come to light this week is Mitsuibishi Corp contracting a single 60,000dwt Ultramax at Saiki Heavy – due to deliver at the very end of 2017″.
...while you wait for the dividend to be cut?!
That's right.....with idle and cold stack rigs, this dividend will not survive for long.
NNA is not much undervalued, despite its 40% decline since early summer.
Shippers are largely valued by their asset price....the vessels.
Historically, shippers made a sizable fraction of income from vessel trades.
AF is one of the most savy in spotting vessel deals.
LR and MR prices have not greatly declined of late. But the order book is huge, the fleet is young, and there is question now of appreciable oversupply.
Vessel Newbuild orders have slowed, and that might presage softer prices.
But overall, the rapid decline in price is likely tied to oil price decline and fear of weak China demand.
All these could be short term....
Share price has fallen so far that when they seek to raise capital for their fleet, shareholder dilution will be huge.
Whether CEO believes in what he has been saying about drybulk prospects, their business model as concerns financing their fleet, is being dismantled by share price collapse.
The CFO would loss his job, and the SEC would initiate a formal investigation against POZN, if such exchange of information took place.
Crude price plunge today in the 80s is a potential death keel for EXXI.
While hedges provide coverage of their production costs, the current weakness
removes all hope of upside.
Not all production is hedged.
The demand for oil has weakened, and the market is oversupplied.
Until these factors reverse, or at least find a bottom, EXXI shares will continue to slide.
I think you're correct about baby and bathwater....in fact, there seems to be almost a "genocide" occurring among the oil drillers, and other related entities in the commodity.
Feeling reassured today?
Not to be snarky, but it is very puzzling as to the severe decline. NNA has their fleet on longer term charters, in a growing demand sector (though perhaps too much new tonnage?) and with VLCC compliment (which they acquired inexpensively....)
Yield now 7.5%