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Energy XXI Ltd. Message Board

play_tow 159 posts  |  Last Activity: 25 minutes ago Member since: Dec 16, 2004
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  • In 2 trading days, Wall Street has increased the valuation of POZN by 15%, or over $30M.

    Longs...we are all now in the Adams Family, and let the new Adams Chronicles begin.

    Shorts...you too are in the Adams Family, and we thank you for that!

  • Current enterprise value is just above $200M.

    I expect that to increase 10 fold, especially if they follow a pathway to retain world rights to YOSPRALA.

    YOSPRALA has at least $500M global revenue potential, probably higher when additional indications are considered.

    A typical EV to revenue ratio is 5 to 10. HZNP, for instance, currently trades at an EV of 7 x 2016 revenue, which is middle of the pack for specialty pharma.

    I would expect POZN, assuming it stays independent and holds full ownership of its franchise, to trade 5 x peak YOSPRALA revenues. This level could be reached by 2018.

    In that view, they would have likely increased share count from the 35M today, to 100M. They could very well have raised $500M in debt by 2018. And there share price could likely be $20/sh.

    That yields a EV of $2.5B, which would be consistent with a company pulling in $500M in annual revenue.

  • Reply to

    Shelf Registrations Coming?

    by play_tow 2 hours 39 minutes ago
    play_tow play_tow 1 hour 28 minutes ago Flag

    For a parallel, look at HZNP in just the last 2 months:

    Issued $475M in debt, Senior Notes

    Issued ~20M new shares, raised ~ $500M.

    That alone was a $1B shelf equivalent.

    The capital markets are hungry for these offerings, and it only takes a creative business plan to utilize the readily available funds.

    CEO Adams will do exactly that, imo.

  • Former CEO never issued a single share of stock in 15 yrs of product development. He took no debt on.

    The POZN today is not the POZN we knew.

    I expect new CEO Adams to tap the capital markets, rather than wait for some partnering agreement (though the latter won't be excluded). He'll be in a position of strength.

    I would expect POZN to launch a $500M shelf registration in the next few months.

  • Wow....New CEO Adrian Adams didn't miss a beat!

    POZEN Inc. (POZN), a pharmaceutical company committed to developing medicine that transforms lives, today announced that it has formed POZEN Limited, a wholly owned Irish subsidiary and has entered in an Intangible Property Transfer Arrangement between POZEN Inc. and POZEN Limited.

    The company has been evaluating its strategic options since recovering the U.S. commercial rights on YOSPRALA in November 2014 and recently announced hiring Adrian Adams as Chief Executive Officer and Andrew Koven as President and Chief Business Officer to lead the strategic effort. In anticipation of the approval and commercialization of YOSPRALA, the potential for significant global business and commercial activities and the expected financial benefits arising therefrom, the company is developing a plan to expand its geographic footprint and increase its foreign presence, including potential international sales, manufacturing and product development.

    “We are planning to build a specialty pharmaceutical business at POZEN, by maximizing the value of YOSPRALA as a core asset upon its approval and by strategically growing the business through product and corporate development activities aimed to position POZEN for its next stage of growth,” said Adrian Adams, Chief Executive Officer of POZEN Inc. “Our initial therapeutic focus will be in the cardiovascular space with a consideration for other product opportunities to broaden our overall portfolio and increase POZEN’s geographic footprint.”

  • Homeless Atlantic oil cargoes deepen global glut
    in International Shipping News 02/06/2015

    A shadowy build up of oil has intensified in the Atlantic Basin with homeless cargoes of crude turning into unintentional floating storage – another sign the global surplus has some way to go before clearing.
    Off the coast of West Africa and in the waters of the North Sea, vessels holding millions of barrels of oil have become, in effect, accidental storage, as their owners fight for buyers.
    These are competing with new loadings, as well as time-chartered cargoes that major trading houses such as Unipec and Trafigura booked to store crude months ago and are now selling.
    “It’s pretty bad,” one West African crude oil trader said. “There is a lot floating there that wasn’t meant to be.”
    The development highlights the diverging fates of crude grades as U.S. shale oil shuts light, sweet West African crudes out of North America, while state-of-the-art refinery additions worldwide are geared towards heavy crudes.
    Just before OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) meets to determine its next move, the Nigerian surplus in particular amplifies the yawning disconnect between futures and physical markets.
    “The country is a good barometer for global oversupply, with its exports to Asia, Europe and the Americas fluctuating with regional demand,” analysts JBC said in a note on Friday.
    Traders said there are around six million barrels of crude from Nigeria’s May programme available – some already loaded onto vessels. Cargoes such as the Front Ariake, which loaded in late April, are only now sailing out of the region.
    That joins more than 65 million barrels left in June and July for Nigeria alone, leaving producers looking to extra-high run rates at European refineries for salvation.
    In the North Sea, four expected June VLCC (very large crude carrier) bookings to Asia dwindled to one confirmed fixture, leaving Europe to absorb almost the entire Forties programme.
    The stranded cargoes are limiting vessel availability, pushing May freight rates on the key West Africa to Asia route more than 10 percent, roughly 40 cents per barrel, higher than April, putting those buyers further out of reach.
    Meanwhile, trader Unipec has reoffered Forties crude from Aframaxes the Thornbury and the British Falcon. Such ship-to-ship transfers are another symptom of the glut, as this is crude that failed to find a home weeks after it would normally have. Traders said that unless demand intensifies, these types of distressed sales would continue.
    “This is the worst North Sea market for a long time,” one trader said.
    This has weighed heavily on prices; Forties traded at the lowest differential to dated Brent since December 2008 this week, whilst Ekofisk traded at a nine-year low. Differentials for Nigerian grades were trading near five-year lows.
    “The effect of unsold crudes is pressure on differentials, and potentially crude prices, as Asian buyers have to be enticed to acquire volumes,” said Arctic Securities analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth.
    Asian tenders that were the salvation of West African crude this spring have in the past week been awarded from floating storage, to Unipec and Trafigura, or pulled due to prices made expensive, partly by freight.
    Unless refineries run at full blast over the summer, ship brokers said freight rates could stay elevated, which would keep pressure on differentials and sustain the glut.
    “We see the overhang of Atlantic crude as supportive for both VLCCs and suezmaxes and as such remain positive near term despite the lack of a real contango curve which would renew interest in floating storage,” Stavseth said.

  • play_tow play_tow 21 hours ago Flag

    Platcheka's main interest was bringing drugs to market, in cost effective ways using innovative science, to address unmet needs. His main passion for years has been PA (YOSPRALA) as meeting a major need, and delivering that at a very cost effective basis from a patient (a bit less from a business) perspective.

    I suspect he hasn't been too pleased with the ratcheted pricing of VIMOVO (even though it has made business sense), because it becomes less accessible for some in need.

  • play_tow play_tow Jun 1, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    I think what is important is that a business-minded leader of AAdams' ability is now calling these next critical shots....this should give all the shareholders much more confidence on the likely value creation in POZN.

    I think its a major major deal to have brought a person of this skill into POZN as this time. I tell some that the YOSPRALA franchise has huge market opportunity, is close to fruition, and has likely been underplayed to date.

  • play_tow play_tow Jun 1, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    Id like to dream that the new CEO Adrian Adams was inspired by these thoughts to take his new position.

    The Adam's appointment today is a game changer for POZN.

    This appointment of a man much respected with an incredible track record for successful commercialization and business developments on the commercial side of this company is every bit as significant as the 2 (soon 3) FDA approved drugs that Plachetka spearheaded through his science and clinical leadership.

    Adams will realize the value of the portfolio that Plachetka brought to market.

    This is where the shareholders will receive rewards for their patience, imo.

  • Sepracor buyout completed; CEO Adams to receive up to $11M
    Oct 21, 2009, 11:20am EDT
    Craig Douglas
    Boston Business Journal
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    Japanese pharmaceutical giant Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma Co. has completed its $2.6 billion acquisition of Sepracor Inc., triggering change-in-control provisions at the local drug maker that could deliver roughly $11 million in pay and benefits to CEO Adrian Adams.

    According to an April 3 regulatory filing by Marlborough-based Sepracor, Adams stands to receive a $5.6 million severance payment and another $302,892 to cover such personal expenditures as life insurance premiums, automobile expenses, a housing allowance and a medical-insurance opt-out payment. Another $4.2 million in restricted stock also is scheduled to vest, now that a change in control has occurred. The value of those vested shares is based on Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma’s $23-per-share acquisition price.

    Adams also is set to receive $867,790 in tax gross-up payments to help cover the tax liabilities stemming from his change-in-control compensation.
    The payment and stock-vesting only go into effect if Adams remains with the company after the change-in-control occurs. The deal officially closed Oct. 20.
    Adams, who was 58 as of Sepracor’s April filing, has been the company’s CEO and president since 2007.
    According to a September announcement from the two companies, Sepracor will be run as a subsidiary of Dainippon Sumitomo, keeping its headquarters in Marlborough and its name and branding. So one of its most popular drugs, the sleep aid Lunesta, will continue to be sold as a Sepracor (Nasdaq: SEPR) product, along with its asthma treatment Xopenex and other drugs.

  • Abbott to Buy Kos Pharmaceuticals for $3.7 Billion (Update6)
    By Duncan Moore and Michelle Fay Cortez - November 6, 2006 16:34 EST

    Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Abbott Laboratories, the maker of heart drugs, stents and nutritional supplements, agreed to buy Kos Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $3.7 billion, adding to its cholesterol treatments.

    Abbott will pay $78 for each Kos share, 56 percent more than the Nov. 3 closing price, the Abbott Park, Illinois-based company said today in a statement. Billionaire founder Michael Jaharis and his family control Cranbury, New Jersey-based Kos, and a majority of holders agreed to the buyout, Abbott said.

    The deal will give Abbott the most powerful drug available for elevating good, or HDL, cholesterol and expand its presence in the $20 billion-a-year market for cholesterol pills. Good cholesterol helps ferry bad out of the body. Kos's Niaspan, a version of the vitamin niacin, is part of what some doctors and investors say is the next wave of heart drugs.

    ``It gains Abbott critical mass'' in the cholesterol market, said Bruce Cranna, an analyst with Leerink Swann & Co. in Boston, in a telephone interview. ``They already have a small toehold with a drug called Tricor, to reduce triglycerides. This allows them to compete to a greater extent.''

    Shares of Kos jumped $26.97, or 54 percent, to $77.06 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. The stock had lost 18 percent in the 12 months through Nov. 3. Abbott shares fell 17 cents to $47.47 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

  • Merck to acquire Inspire Pharma for $430 million
    CHICAGO
    Merck & Co (MRK.N) said on Tuesday it would acquire eye treatment maker Inspire Pharmaceuticals Inc ISPH.O for about $430 million to expand its ophthalmology business.

    Inspire's key product is Azasite, a treatment for bacterial conjunctivitis, sometimes referred to as "pink eye." It also receives royalties on sales of Allergan Inc's AGN.N dry-eye drug Restasis.

    With Inspire, Merck adds to an eye-care portfolio that includes the proposed glaucoma treatment Saflutan, now being reviewed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

    The $5-per-share cash offer for Inspire represents a 26 percent premium to Inspire's closing stock price on Monday.

    Wedbush Securities analyst Liana Moussatos, who had valued Inspire at $7 a share, said Merck is snapping up Inspire after the Raleigh, North Carolina-based company suffered a blow to its pipeline when its cystic fibrosis drug denufosol failed in a late-stage study in January.

    Another product, the prescription eye drop Elestat, is facing generic competition, Moussatos said.

    "Because they had the bad news with the pulmonary franchise, and Elestat now has generic competition and they will lose that royalty stream, that's why they were taken out at a discount in my opinion," she said.

    The transaction has been unanimously approved by the boards of both companies. In addition, private equity firm Warburg Pincus WP.UL, which owns about 28 percent of Inspire's outstanding shares, has agreed to tender all of its shares into Merck's offer.

    Shares of Inspire rose 97 cents, or 24.5 percent, to $4.95 on Nasdaq. Merck shares fell 16 cents, or 0.48 percent, to $33.11 on the New York Stock Exchange.

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  • The list of small cap bio companies Adams has been CEO for, and the direction he took each of those, is pretty amazing....and consistent. Build the portfolio, build the value, and sell the company to larger interests. Will need to do more checking on how this worked for shareholders, but the direction for POZN seems pretty clear...

    _____________
    Mr. Adams is a highly qualified pharmaceutical executive with over 30 years of experience in the industry and a reputation for growing organizations by excellence in commercialization and by executing on business development opportunities that deliver compelling growth and value for shareholders. He most recently served as Chief Executive Officer and President of Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, until its acquisition by Endo International plc in January 2015. Prior to joining Auxilium, Mr. Adams served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Neurologix, Inc., a company focused on development of multiple innovative gene therapies for disorders of the brain and central nervous system. Prior to that Mr. Adams served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc., where he oversaw the commercialization and development of prescription pharmaceutical products and led the company through a strategic acquisition by global pharmaceutical leader Merck & Co., Inc. Prior to Inspire, Mr. Adams served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Sepracor Inc. until its acquisition by Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma Co. Prior to joining Sepracor, Mr. Adams was President and Chief Executive Officer of Kos Pharmaceuticals, Inc. until its acquisition by Abbott Laboratories. Mr. Adams has also held general management and senior international and national marketing positions at SmithKline Beecham, Novartis and ICI (now part of AstraZeneca).

  • Reply to

    POZEN Announces Retirement of Founder,

    by nowagron Jun 1, 2015 7:14 AM
    play_tow play_tow Jun 1, 2015 8:45 AM Flag

    I suspect that the time is coming....maybe not more that a year out, when POZN is to be sold/acquired. That is mainly what Adams would achieve, I think.

  • Reply to

    POZEN Announces Retirement of Founder,

    by nowagron Jun 1, 2015 7:14 AM
    play_tow play_tow Jun 1, 2015 7:48 AM Flag

    Plachetkas retirement was inevitable given the vision for the company's future. Doing so now and bringing in an expert on the Commercialization and business side is a very timely smart move. That such a person would step into this position should be viewed, IMO, as confidence in the POZN business prospects going forward regarding YOSPRALA especially.

  • YOSPRALA will be approved, maybe in summer, certainly in 2015.

    ----- $500M worldwide revenue by 2018

    VIMOVO reaping the whirlwind under HZNP

    ---- 2015 royalties $20M

    Cash Flow Positive on VIMOVO Alone

    Partnering agreement on YOSPRALA forthcoming

    ---$20M upfront, with incentive milestones

    $2/SH cash by End 2015

    ---- half likely returned as dividend/distribution

    Annual Income $1.50 to $2/SH on Y and P franchise

    ---- returned to shareholders....implying yield of 25% at today's share price

    And the sellers keep lining up!

  • Reply to

    Fair (Net Asset) Value for FRO?

    by play_tow May 29, 2015 3:36 PM
    play_tow play_tow May 29, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    they also have debt, which may make the net cash a wash...actually there is net debt tied to the remaining debt on the 2 Suezmax

  • Reply to

    Fair (Net Asset) Value for FRO?

    by play_tow May 29, 2015 3:36 PM
    play_tow play_tow May 29, 2015 6:50 PM Flag

    there is no intellectual property here at FRO. Simple capital intensive business. your analog is meaningless, imo

  • Reply to

    Fair (Net Asset) Value for FRO?

    by play_tow May 29, 2015 3:36 PM
    play_tow play_tow May 29, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Indeed. And others, that know quite a lot more, have been making this very point....namely selling shares at the current price would eventually be highly accretive.

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