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Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation Message Board

play_tow 186 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2015 10:29 AM Member since: Dec 16, 2004
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  • target lowered from prior $33

  • This equity has fallen, as have all LNG related stocks, mostly in sympathy with oil price decline.

    Yet, LNG demand is increasing, and will become increasingly the replacement energy to oil/coal.

    And, GMLP has the largest portfolio of FSRUs, with contracts that extend to 2020 and well beyond.

    The FSRU demand in also exploding, as other LNG projects are not as competitive and involve a very large investment my oil majors.

    There are 2 FSRU dropdown awaiting.

    Also, the GoFLNG enterprise has tremendous potential.

    The only comparable investment is the somewhat illiquid FLNG.ol, which is heavily JF owned, and will likely also soon be paying dividends. Another option is HMLP.

    In the meantime, GMLP is paying 13% dividend, in what is likely to be a sustained payout through 2017 by which time the LNG shipping market will have strengthened greatly.

    Added shares today...

  • Reply to

    What is SDLP Worth if DIV is Eliminated?

    by play_tow Aug 26, 2015 2:30 PM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 26, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    I don't think you understand investing.

    The shares are down 10% today on fear of a div cut, after the RIG announcement today, among other concerns.

    Call the payout what you will--- but a 50% decline in SDLP shares would be clearly understandable by all as being a major loss.

  • Not saying that Div will be eliminated.

    The question is what would happen to SDLP shares in the unlikely case.

    LINE was also not expected to eliminate its div this quarter, but it did to the surprise of many, despite their hedge protection. The shares, which had already fallen hard (and some felt reflected a div cut), cratered thereafter.

    It is possible that a div elimination would send SLDP down by another 50%....as we see in ORIG after they eliminated their div this quarter, for instance.

  • Reply to

    2 Charter Expirations in ~20 months for SDLP

    by play_tow Aug 26, 2015 1:27 PM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 26, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    Hard to see $100, because US shale can ramp swiftly and a swing source of oil.

    But $40 is unlikely.

    Also, US shale lifetime is estimated to peak by 2020, and so a new world will emerge (i.e. the old world will reemerge) by then in terms of pricing.

  • Two of their fleet come for recharter in April 2017, and the Sirius (currently idle, but compensated) rolls off in July 2017.

    Oil will certainly be higher than $40 then, but the days of $600,000 rates and 5-yr contracts will not have returned by then, if ever.

    RIGP is in a more challenging situation with one of their 3 drillship rolling off in about 12-15 months.

  • Reply to

    RIG News is relevant to SDLP

    by play_tow Aug 26, 2015 11:26 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 26, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    same deal of ORIG relation to DRYs....ORIG cut, so too will SDLP.

  • RIG did a div elimination today, and gave color on the market out to 2017 that was dire.

    UDW is unlikely to recover by 2017, when SDLP begins seeing contracts expire.

    SDLP div too could be cut, and eventually eliminated over the next several quarters, barring a dramatic turnaround in oil markets, and UDW demand.

  • Their revenues are secure, and they will grow with the 3 acquisitions done early this summer just before the market downturn in their share price.

    Spot LNG rates today have no bearing on GLOP earnings.

    The rehires all are with options by BG to extend 5 or more years.

    By 2016, LNG shipping demand will be must stronger than today, and by 2018 the likely rates in which GLOP may rehire will be much stronger as vessel demand is expected to out strip vessel supply.

    The downturn has stalled investments in LNG carriers, setting the stage for a much stronger rate market in the 2017-2020 period.

    IN the meantime, GLOP will increase div by 10% by Q3, to about $1.90/annual as per their PR related to the recent dropdowns.

    The share are likely to gradually recover to a yield of 7-8%, or about $24-$26 by late 2016----implying a total return of about 50% from today's share price of $17

  • Reply to

    POZN is holding up well

    by k10martin Aug 24, 2015 11:10 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 24, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    a bit scary...but true.

    Some of the opening sell orders on stocks were alarming, taking strong equities down 10-15% in a heartbeat.

    Impressive indeed to see POZN claw back.

    Probably the FDA buying shares, ahead of their approval.

  • "VLCC spot rates are poised to explode again this winter, Arctic Securities believes."

    on Tradewinds

  • Reply to

    nice over 10% drop on a beat

    by benpub_one Aug 18, 2015 11:44 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 18, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    This is occurring across the entire tanker sector.

    There is no move to expand multiples here, even as earnings are breaking records (concern of the imminent down cycle pervades and dominates considerations...).

    The debt burden is viewed more negatively today (even though the cost of debt is cheap...and will stay so of some time) The plethora of bankruptcies emerging in the oil patch is casting a pale over all oil E&P related equities (as if the tankers were in the same line of business!).

    The best equities are those willing to take their abundant cash flow to improve balance sheets, and return cash to shareholders. NNA, DHT, NAT are among those.

  • From their 2014 annual report....

    Their vessels are registered in Greece, Liberia, Marshall islands, Panama, and Bahamas. They indicate that they are not subject to US income taxes.

    Unclear what portion of their fleet and related subsidiaries, if any, are obligated to pay taxes in Greece.

  • Reply to

    Took Some Shares....

    by play_tow Aug 12, 2015 11:07 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 17, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    Indeed, the political deal making may put a tax hurt on the shippers that are greek domiciled, like TNP is:

    "Greece Willing to Raise Taxes on Merchant Ships
    Shipowners union president says changes in current tax regime will force owners to abandon country
    By COSTAS PARIS
    June 26, 2015 2:14 p.m. ET
    ATHENS—Greece’s government is willing to implement a higher tonnage tax on its giant merchant shipping industry, meeting its international creditors half way in their demands that the country does away with lucrative tax breaks for shippers.

  • Reply to

    See Jason's new evaluation at Seeking Alpha.

    by baronvonkirk Aug 14, 2015 12:39 PM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 14, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    Oh please!

  • Reply to

    Took Some Shares....

    by play_tow Aug 12, 2015 11:07 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 14, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Indeed. Probably the two best values in tankers, based on Price/NAV are TNP and DHT.

    Both trade at about 80% of NAV, according to a recent Stifel report.

    Added more at 7.91 today....

  • play_tow play_tow Aug 13, 2015 6:57 PM Flag

    Headline should read "sell-off"!

    Maybe it should read "Shelf-off"!!

  • This may be the trigger for what we saw today (on pg 57 of there 10-Q):

    " Sales of substantial amounts of our common stock in the public market by us or our largest stockholders could depress our stock price.

    We have not sold shares of common stock in a public offering since our initial public offering in October 2000. Accordingly, we have a relatively small number of shares that are traded in the market. Approximately 9% of our outstanding shares are beneficially held by John Plachetka, our former Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. Additionally, we believe, based upon our review of public filings by certain stockholders and other publicly available information, an aggregate of approximately 25% of our outstanding shares are held by three other stockholders, with one stockholder beneficially owning greater than 10% of our outstanding shares. Any sales of substantial amounts of our common stock in the public market, including sales or distributions of shares by our large stockholders, or the perception that such sales or distributions might occur, could harm the market price of our common stock and could impair our ability to raise capital through the sale of additional equity securities. For example, our executive officers may sell shares pursuant to Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. Further, stockholders’ ownership will be diluted if we raise additional capital by issuing equity securities, and will be the case if the Merger with Tribute is approved by our shareholders and the proposed equity and debt financing closes. We have filed with the SEC and are currently making amendments to a shelf registration statement on Form S-3, under which we may, upon effectiveness, offer up to and aggregate of 8,000,000 shares of our common stock for sale to the public in one or more public offerings. These shares will not be registered until this registration statement is declared effective by the SEC. The selling stockholder named in the prospectus for this registration statement may offer up to 500,000 shares of common stock, and we would not receive any of the proceeds from sales of those shares."

  • play_tow by play_tow Aug 13, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    Combing thru the 10-Q, mostly reaffirmations of what we have already heard:

    "In light of the current regulatory review of our active ingredient supplier and of the time requirements necessary to complete an assessment of its strategic options, and to properly prepare the market for the launch of our YOSPRALA product candidates, we believe the products will be available for commercialization in 2016."

    Merger details were filled previously, so nothing obvious new there.

    ON subsequent events, there was another patent challenge, identical to the one filled on June 5, when the stock also took a tumble:

    "On August 7, 2015, CFAD filed a Petition for IPR of the ‘636 patent with the PTAB of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. We and Horizon may file an optional Preliminary Response within three months from the filing date if accepted by the PTAB. Upon receipt of such a Preliminary Response, the PTAB has three months in which to institute or deny the IPR proceeding. If the PTAB decides to institute the IPR proceeding, CFAD will have the opportunity to challenge the validity of the ‘636 patent in whole or in part before the PTAB via a patent validity trial. We and Horizon intend to defend the validity of the ‘636 patent in both the IPR and district court settings."

    and this one:

    " On July 17, 2015, we and Horizon received a second Paragraph IV Notice Letter from Lupin informing us that it had amended its Paragraph IV certifications made in its ANDA seeking regulatory approval to market a generic version of VIMOVO. Lupin’s amended certifications relate to the ‘636 and ‘996 patents which are each assigned to the Company. The patents are listed with respect to VIMOVO in the Orange Book and expire in 2022 or 2031. Lupin’s Paragraph IV Notice Letter asserts that its generic product will not infringe the listed patents or that the listed patents are invalid or unenforceable. We and Horizon are in the process of assessing the nature and merits of Lupin’s claims.

    As with any litigation proceeding, we cannot predict with certainty the patent infringment suit against Dr. Reddy's, Lupin, Mylan and Watson relating to a generic version of VIMOVO. We will have to incure expenses in connection with the lawsuits relating to VIMOVO, which may be substantial. In the event of an adverse outcome or outcomes, our business could be materially harmed. Moreover, responding to and defending pending litigation will result in a significant diversion of management's attention and resources and an increase in professional fees. "

    which is why they have patent and lawyers!

  • Reply to

    NNA Shares Trading Lower than 2 Yrs Ago ... Why?

    by play_tow Aug 13, 2015 10:25 AM
    play_tow play_tow Aug 13, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    thank you. Strong comments, but not rant material. Appreciated.

NNA
3.35+0.08(+2.45%)Aug 28 4:02 PMEDT