released from Zack's David Burtz today, who I believe was involved in Q&A at the conference this week.
He gives a very detailed summary, and here is his end conclusion:
Conclusion and Recommendation
The specialty pharmaceutical sector has been hit hard recently by a renewed interest in trying to bring drug prices under control. This was spurred both by Hillary Clinton’s drug pricing proposal as well as the controversy surrounding Turing Pharmaceuticals increasing the price of Daraprim® from $13 to $750 per pill. Due to this, Pozen’s stock price has fallen from approximately $10 on Sep. 16 to a current price of $5.84. In our opinion this is an overreaction, particularly given the fact that there is unlikely to be any serious attempt at price controls on pharmaceuticals in this country in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current environment could represent a meaningful opportunity to establish or add to a position in Pozen with good upside available once the merger with Tribute goes through.
For modeling purposes, we are anticipating that Aralez will be promoting YOSPRALA® in the U.S. as opposed to partnering the drug and collecting royalties, and we are estimating an approximately 55% operating margin. We believe there are approximately 24 million Americans who would be eligible for secondary treatment with daily aspirin. Of those, approximately 70% of patients are currently on aspirin and represent the target population for YOSPRALA®. The company is planning to initially target those patients through the use of an approximately 100 person sales force targeting the top 20% of secondary prevention specialists. Over time, this sales force could increase to 300, which would target approximately 40% of the market. In the end, we think YOSPRALA® is a potential $300-350 million drug in the U.S.
Based on our modeling for products like Bezalip® SR, Cambia®, Fibricor®, Proferrin®, and the remaining assets at Tribute, we believe Tribute is worth approximately $175 million. This is slightly above the original $146 million deal price, as we believe synergies across the two portfolios will be great and profits will be higher given the lower tax rate (eventually heading to the low 20’s) stemming from moving the headquarters to Ireland. Our current model gives a net present value for Pozen of approximately $440 million, or just over $13 per share. This includes the $41.5 million in cash as of June 30, 2015.
Looking ahead to Aralez’s worth after the merger, when we combine the valuation for Pozen ($440 million) and Tribute ($175 million) we arrive at a combined valuation of $615 million. Adding in the cash to be received at closing from Deerfield of $75 million gives a net present value of $690 million. The basic share count for Aralez after the merger should be on the order of 61 million shares (32.4 million from Pozen shareholders, 18.2 million from Tribute shareholders, and 10.4 million from Deerfield equity purchase). This equates to a target price of just over $11 per share.
NAP would be a major beneficiary, with secured long term charters of its 6 VLCC fleet, 5 of which have profit sharing. DHT, with VLCC new builds arriving beginning Nov 2015, and then every 2 months thereafter, sitting pretty.
6 VLCC, avg charters over 5.5 yrs, full charter coverage (with backstop) thru at least Dec 2018.
5 have profit sharing, which are all currently engaged at current market VLCC spot rates over $70,000/day.
Div to grow to $1.81/sh by 2Q2016
Yield is 16%.
Vessel valuations for second hand tonnage continues to rise, with more upside.
Low debt, low leverage, with options for at least 5 additional VLCC dropdowns from NNA parent.
No equity raise needed, and additional dropdown could be funded by combination of debt and cash.
Coverage ratio projected at 1.1 in Q22016 (currently 1.4)
Very positive, gives more color on the progress with supplier, indicates also that they are near certifying a second supplier, who is the world's second largest aspirin producer....
Clarifies that their projection for $200M in revenue in 2018 assumes that management does nothing in addition to the steps now in motion.
Very shareholder value-creation focused.
Indicated that Yosprala price point is on the order of $1/day----which is very conscious of the price sensitivity and affordability issues.
Very confident leadership.....
"The signing today of the Gas Convention and the finalization of the Tolling Agreement terms facilitates the financing structure previously announced and will enable Golar to drawdown up to $700m from the facility to fund the ongoing conversion cost. It is estimated that no further direct funding from Golar will be required for the Hilli conversion, with the remainder of the conversion project being financed through this debt facility.
Golar, Perenco and SNH have for the past two years been developing a floating liquefied natural gas export project located near shore off the coast of Cameroon situated in an area of benign sea states and utilizing Golar's floating liquefaction technology ("GoFLNG"). The project is based on the allocation of 500 Bcf of natural gas reserves from offshore Kribi fields, which will be exported to global markets via the GoFLNG facility "Hilli", now under construction at Keppel Shipyard in Singapore. Golar will provide the liquefaction facilities and services under a tolling agreement to SNH and Perenco as parties of the upstream joint venture. It is anticipated that the allocated reserves will be produced at a rate of 1.2 million tons of LNG per annum, representing approximately 50% of the vessel's nameplate production capacity, over an approximate eight year period. It is expected that production will commence in Q2, 2017.
Consistent with previous advice, the project in Cameroon is expected to deliver an EBITDA for Golar in the first full year of operation, based on the utilisation of 2 of the available 4 liquefaction trains, in the range of $170 million to $300 million, with a flexible tolling structure which correlates to Brent crude oil prices ranging from a floor of $60/bbl to a cap of $102/bbl. The Tolling Agreement also includes a tariff for a 3 train operation in case additional gas volumes can be processed or production advanced. Full production by 3 trains will increase the EBITDA to between $240 million and $430 million corresponding to the same range of Brent crude oil prices.
Though to see such radical moves to be sure.....of course, we didn't complain (but maybe scratched our heads...) when the price surged in summer to $12 amid a new management and growth path. The latter scenario, as far as I can see, hasn't changed (just that the priced is down 50%!!).
I added today at the $6.50 level, and then at the $5.95 level----I frankly did not expect that POZN would trade this low again, after the summer change.
Maybe its foolhardy....
But the message on Yosprala has been, all along, that this is a highly market-driven drug, one that can achieve very large usage and penetration, and a drug that couldn't arrive at a more timely moment given evidence for aspirin's benefits for many health issues.
The "noise" in bio regarding pricing is actually a benefit to Yosprala's case, given the low cost that are planned, and its tremendous health benefits that would drive related health costs down.
I had sold ~ 3/4 of the position in POZN over the last few months, at prices in the low 10s, 9, and then most recently in the mid-7s.
Today, Ive added much of that back------
The selloff in biotech is not discriminating....all are down hard.
POPZN, with its small float....is very vulnerable in this situation.
POZN prospects haven't changed.
The shares will see a better day, imo.
Nothing new....but then also, nothing to change the growth story either.
They emphasize a strategy of aggressive M&A, which would have been supported by the $200M Deerfield investment. I suspect others in biotech, that might have been on POZN's radar screen, have gotten much cheaper...
I make the same calculations.
By 2018, the demand for LNG shipping will be in tight balance, and the fleet fully utilized according to estimates, regardless of the LNG price itself.
There will be a supply of LNG that is contractually committed, and will ship.
In the meantime, 12% yield ----- till market turns
GLOP contracts are secure through May 2018.
GLOP just completed 3 dropdowns in July, that are 10% accretive.
GLOP yield, based on their Q3 projected $1.90, is now 12.5%
DLNG has several recharters due in 2017.
They (and GLOP) will be hard pressed to make accretive dropdown, certainly not using equity.
Otherwise, they both are severely under-priced.
on Tradewinds....immediate delivery.
3 of their spots were rechartered this week, for new voyages of 30-45 day duration, and rates in the $45,000 to $55,000/day range.
DHT appears not to have been forced to recharter during the weak market conditions of late July thru early September, and thus was minimally affected by the brief low rate environment.
Are those new contracts, post-2019, DLNG owned vessels, or for parent company vessels? I think the latter...
Those would need to be dropped down to DLNG.
At the current share price, the purchase using the same equity mix with debt as before would be non-accretive.
Not sure where the benefit will trickle down to DLNG shareholders.
Indeed.....same here. Perhaps the announcement today of their participation in the Ladenburg Thalmann Healthcare Conference ---- September 29, 2015 in New York. Adrian Adams, Chief Executive Officer, is scheduled to present an overview of the Company at 3:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 29, 2015.