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Global Ship Lease, Inc. Message Board

play_tow 190 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 24, 2015 12:33 AM Member since: Dec 16, 2004
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  • Reply to

    First post on the new board

    by clrodrick Jan 22, 2015 5:06 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 24, 2015 12:33 AM Flag

    Prefer the VLCC exposure of DHT and FRO.

  • Having greatly increased their revenue visibility, and given strong indications for viability of their revenue stream going forward, FRO is unlikely to encounter any difficulty in tapping additional debt sources to cover immediate and near term needs, imo.

  • play_tow play_tow Jan 23, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    This missed the point....for a Time Charter , the owner does not pay fuel, dock, and related daily operating costs. For a spot charter, the owner does pay all costs. So, a apple-to-apple comparison is to remove the cost burden to the owner for the spot hire, and express in the equivalent Time Charter rate. When doing that exercise, the two will be quite similar....and highly profitable!

  • Haven't seen the rates yet, but 3 more (of their older VLCC) locked for over a year, likely for storage.

  • Reply to

    New move from George

    by audiophul Jan 23, 2015 8:51 AM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 23, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    A fool. These types of moves will mark the initial dagger in the tanker recovery.....and I would expect that by early 2018, Drillships will be in nice demand.

    And then the Bulkers being converted to tankers. Ship owners are good at sinking a good thing before it gets afloat, and the market keeps,giving them money to do so.

  • Reply to

    First post on the new board

    by clrodrick Jan 22, 2015 5:06 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 23, 2015 12:36 AM Flag

    Looks like it priced at a 7% discount to trades of today.

    Hopefully the over subscription will drive the price up on the first day.

    Already own the shares, which have traded OTC for years, but very thinly.

  • Their 6 month extension for MSS1 in the North Sea thru Dec 2015, though for a rate reduced from 280K to 225K, is still highly profitable. Their operating costs, like MSS2, are about 120K/day.

    10 Dec 2014 roadshow argued their div was sustainable and could even grow. At $40M per yr payout, I would prefer that cash was used if they bought debt, selling at 60% of par....a better use of their cash ultimately.

    Stacking is not a high expense, and some units will sell, which is part of a fleet renewal.

    Prospectors, with a favorable debt profile, strengthens cash flow thru 2017, and was a ness army and opportunistic acquisition for a business that is shuddering older rigs, and must replace the cash flow. This is does that.

    Their #$%$ especially have a demand from a particular client base looking for cost effective solutions....that demand will continue, perhaps even more so, in this capital constrained environment for the next 2'yrs.

  • Reply to

    NAP -- Profit Sharing

    by irmr2005 Jan 20, 2015 3:19 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 20, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    Doubt it. Profit shares are computed based on 6 month and 12 month averages. Some, the impact of strengthening market won't be evident till 2H2015.

  • play_tow by play_tow Jan 20, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    The last time that spot charter rates for tankers (VLCC/Suez/Afra) were this high (in 2008), bunker prices were over $700 per tonne.

    Today, bunker price (Fujairah) trades at USD 283.5 per tone

    Owners operating in spot are gaining the advantage of both the strong spot charter prices, as in 2008, and the low operating costs....which was not true in 2008.

  • Euronav, to list under EURN on the NYSE, has today commenced its IPO with a goal to raise about $185M. it appears the IPO price is about $12.90 US dollars/share.

    Euronav employs its fleet both on the spot and period market. The VLCCs are all on the spot market at this time. They are traded in the Tankers International pool of which Euronav is one of the major partners. Euronav’s owned and operated fleet consists of 52 double hulled vessels being 1 V-Plus, 2 FSO vessels (both owned in 50%-50% joint venture), 26 VLCCs of which 1 in joint venture and 23 Suezmaxes (of which 4 in joint venture).

  • That is the 12-month target for TNP that provided in their initiation on Tsakos last month.

    Current price action speaks differently of course, and that is what mattes for the moment.

    Yet, its odd to have TNP shares trading below the yr ago levels, when shares on 21 January 2014 traded above $8.

    Its odd to see TNP shares trade below August 2014 prices, well before the surge in rates began.

    And, for what ever its worth, TNP traded at $16/sh a mere 5-yrs ago, yet they have greatly enlarged their fleet, and improved their balance sheet, and are facing a cyclical recovery in the tanker business today.

    Maybe the Global Hunter $17 target isn't out of the realm....

  • Euronav (EURN) is doing a NYSE IPO today. They own about 50 VLCC and Suezmax, on the water fleet, with the VLCC all spot. No new build program, they mostly purchase on the second hand market, and had completed a 15 VLCC purchase in early 2014 for less than $1B....a timely move given subsequent market forces.

    Their IPO will raise about $180M.

  • Euronav begins IPO offering of shares on NYSE today, under symbol EURN.

    Pure play tanker, owning about 50 VLCC and Suezmax

  • Reply to

    FRO Assets

    by semper_grumpy Jan 17, 2015 10:02 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 18, 2015 10:02 PM Flag

    Bit confusing. SFL owns 12 VLCC that are chartered to FRO on long term lease obligations. Likewise, it owns 5 Suezmax which are chartered to FRO.

    So, these are assets owned by SFL, not by FRO. And, FRO earnings on these is the difference between their hire rates and their lease obligation to SFL ( I think these are effectively bareboat charters in which all costs are paid by FRO).

    So, if I have this right ( and please correct), the truly owned FRO fleet is 23 vessels, while the other 17 are effectively chartered-in. FRO is of course now profiting handsomely on those chartered-in vessels that are owned by SFL, and chartered by and managed by FRO.

    The point of the sale-leaseback was to improve the balance sheet of FRO at the time.

    In terms of asset value of their fleet, is only 23 vessels, I believe.

  • Larger sales force, and pharmacy benefits investment all good news for VIMOVO sales.

    The Company has completed the hiring and training of an additional 75 sales representatives, with a total primary care sales force size of 325 representatives. All primary care representatives are now selling DUEXIS®, PENNSAID 2% and VIMOVO®.

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has agreed to the primary endpoint for the Company's Phase 3 study that will evaluate ACTIMMUNE® in the treatment of Friedreich's Ataxia (FA). The Company plans to submit an IND application in the first quarter of 2015 and anticipates the Phase 3 clinical study will begin enrolling patients in the second quarter of 2015.

    "We have a unique commercial business model where focused representative promotion, PME-program execution and the maximization of the value of the product are all aligned to drive revenue growth," said Timothy P. Walbert, chairman, president and chief executive officer, Horizon Pharma plc. "We are now executing a comprehensive plan to ensure patients maintain access to DUEXIS and VIMOVO when their physicians prescribe them. With the acceleration of our PME program, the creation of an innovative retail-PME program and recent pricing action, we are confident we will grow combined net revenues for DUEXIS and VIMOVO in the first quarter of 2015 versus the first quarter of 2014."

  • Reply to

    Started my position in PACD today at 3.51

    by donutgoat Jan 12, 2015 7:34 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 15, 2015 8:24 PM Flag


    I get tired of those posts claiming to know the bottom is in, and to back up the truck. Nor do I need to know their purchase price and shares owned.... Immature childishness.

    I just crunched some numbers on the SDLP fleet, which probably has the best contract coverage of any listed driller with their entire UDW fleet covered thru Q2 2017, and the majority thru 2H 2019. Lots of blab that their div will be cut soon, as in SDRL. I for one don't believe that is likely, and that SDLP,dividend will continue at current rate into 2016, before some appraisal is made of market situations.

    I assumed a 30% reduction in all their contracts and estimated the impact on their distributable income. So, by this scenario, a $500K rate becomes a $350K rate....which I think is the worst case scenario, and lower than the likely rates for modern equipment for UDW (fact is that DW and MW older equipment is being rapidly cold stacked, and that will accelerate....the UDW players with modern equipment will have plenty of demand come 2016 and beyond, imo).

    The result of that scenario is that SDLP would still have positive net income, and could still pay out 0.08/SH....compared to,current payout of about 0.55/SH . Shares already down 60% from 2014 tra dinging level (PACD is now off 75%).

    The story is harder to sift thru for companies having older equipment, and whether those would generate any revenue. And, the debt maintenance could become a major issue....obvious cases are PGN, DO, RIG.

    PACD will be able to secure contracts for their advanced fleet,but it is certain not to be at the $600 rates seen in early 2014. $400-450 is what I would expect....will be curious to see the duration....owners may not wish to
    Lock away their new rigs for such low rates for 3yr.

    There is so much damage to stocks in this sector....and no bottom evident yet. Soon, the risk - reward will be compelling, but we probably need to see oil bottom, and too many are expecting that to fall to low30

  • It worth considering, as a simple excersize to at least understand the risks to SDLP distributions, what the impact of a 30% drop in total operating revenues would be.

    Since their contracts are staggered, and only 2 UDWs roll off charter in 1H 2017, while 3 other UDWS are fixed thru 2H 2019, this scenario of 30% reduction is extreme.

    It implies that a contract now awarded $500,000/day (like the Aquarius), would rehire at $350,000/day.

    Using their financials of Q32014, a 30% reduction in all their charters (again, this won't occur in 2017, since only a few renew), their quarterly contract revenues would decline by $100M. (From about $330M to $230M).

    Assuming total operating expenses remained unchanged ($180M in Q3), then they would have net quarterly operating income of about $50M. Note that they would actually have positive operating income...good news.

    Assuming interest expense is unchanged ($35M), their net income would be about $15M. Again, positive!

    Based on past distributions, about 1/2 of that has been attributable to SDLP members, though that can vary for reasons unclear. Lets assume 1/2....leaving about $7.5M for a declared distribution. That compares to $53.4M in Q3.

    That leaves a quarterly distribution of about $0.08/sh...

    It implies that, at the current share price of $13, SDLP would have an annualized yield of about 2.5%.

    The main point to note here is that under a fairly draconian scenario of 30% revenue reduction of its entire existing fleet, that SDLP would remain profitable, and capable of distributing cash to shareholders.

    This calculation ignores an important issue, namely the company's plan to actually pay the debt for they fleet down, and in not, then their ability to refinance their debt at comparable rates to today.

  • play_tow play_tow Jan 15, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    Profit taking from the momentum crowd....all tanker stocks are a good 10-20% off their recent trading highs.

    Healthy, and barring a call by OPEC to cut oil production among its states (which won't happen, if the Saudis, UAE, etc. are to be believed), then the shares in these will likely find new 52-wk highs in 2015.

  • Reply to

    JF was smart on GLNG

    by rogers2308 Jan 14, 2015 12:40 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 14, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    That is too soon to judge. And keep in mind that he put some of that money from GLNG into SDRL, NADL, VLCCF, and DSSPF. Those are only down about 50% -90% in the last 6 months! Ouch

5.06-0.01(-0.20%)Jan 23 4:02 PMEST

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