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Golar LNG Ltd. Message Board

play_tow 193 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 minutes ago Member since: Dec 16, 2004
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  • Reply to

    positive statements from NAP earnings report

    by berniebalto 2 hours 44 minutes ago
    play_tow play_tow 22 minutes ago Flag

    The 2-yr time frame speaks to their existing contracts on their 4 vessels, and doesn't not indicate their market expectation (which might be lower or higher...)

  • Reply to

    $ 13 a share is coming

    by brucemm Jan 22, 2015 8:02 AM
    play_tow play_tow 21 hours ago Flag

    Are you enjoying $23?

  • MOSCOW, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Ratings agency S&P said on Monday it had cut Russia's sovereign credit rating to BB+ or below investment grade.

    S&P warned in late December that it could deprive Russia of its investment-grade credit rating as soon as mid-January, following a rapid deterioration of the country's monetary flexibility and a weakening economy.

  • FRO and other tankers trade in a basket of oil related companies via ETFs.

    Worse, they trade in a basket of shipping-focused ETFs.

    IN both cases, the tankers have experienced the downdraft of selling in those ETFs because
    of this lack of differentiation, and the obsession with the basket trades.

    It is actually impressive that the tankers haven't fallen more, and speaks to the individual and some institutional ability to differentiate.

    It will go the other way also. Should the notion be that oil will have fond a bottom, all the oil ETFs will find a bid up, and the tankers will rise.

    Should the notion be that the global economy is strengthening, as seen by a rise in oil by some, shippers will rise suddenly and the tankers with them.

    Of course, the fundamentals of the tankers have never been better, and merit much stronger pricing of shares on their own merits. But the basket effect has been a negative....

  • Production surplus is running 1-2 mb/day, and production growth of about 1 mb/day expected in 2015 to slightly exceed demand growth. At this time, land storage shave mainly absorbed the supply glut...now running strong since mid 2014.

    Much so the new surplus, created daily, will be stored in floating tankers. The huge, and historically unprecedented capexs of prior yrs will take more than a yr to play out, before production and demand find a new balance.

    It now,seems likely that 2015 will require over 200 million barrels of floating storage. This will almost certainly keep VLCCs is huge demand. That storage cost will grow as they contango itself grows in the coming months.

    12-24 month storage rates of $50,000 day will become economically feasible as the front end oil contract pushes into the mid 30s by early spring. Suezmax will also get pulled into the storage, but at 1 million barrel capacity, their storage hire will be harder to justify given the current spot market strength.

    The balance sheets of VLCC owners is about to the radically improved,and share prices of their equities, which by and large still reflect the tanker bottom cycle, have very large upward potential.

  • Reply to

    First post on the new board

    by clrodrick Jan 22, 2015 5:06 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 24, 2015 12:33 AM Flag

    Prefer the VLCC exposure of DHT and FRO.

  • Having greatly increased their revenue visibility, and given strong indications for viability of their revenue stream going forward, FRO is unlikely to encounter any difficulty in tapping additional debt sources to cover immediate and near term needs, imo.

  • play_tow play_tow Jan 23, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    This missed the point....for a Time Charter , the owner does not pay fuel, dock, and related daily operating costs. For a spot charter, the owner does pay all costs. So, a apple-to-apple comparison is to remove the cost burden to the owner for the spot hire, and express in the equivalent Time Charter rate. When doing that exercise, the two will be quite similar....and highly profitable!

  • Haven't seen the rates yet, but 3 more (of their older VLCC) locked for over a year, likely for storage.

  • Reply to

    New move from George

    by audiophul Jan 23, 2015 8:51 AM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 23, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    A fool. These types of moves will mark the initial dagger in the tanker recovery.....and I would expect that by early 2018, Drillships will be in nice demand.

    And then the Bulkers being converted to tankers. Ship owners are good at sinking a good thing before it gets afloat, and the market keeps,giving them money to do so.

  • Reply to

    First post on the new board

    by clrodrick Jan 22, 2015 5:06 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 23, 2015 12:36 AM Flag

    Looks like it priced at a 7% discount to trades of today.

    Hopefully the over subscription will drive the price up on the first day.

    Already own the shares, which have traded OTC for years, but very thinly.

  • Their 6 month extension for MSS1 in the North Sea thru Dec 2015, though for a rate reduced from 280K to 225K, is still highly profitable. Their operating costs, like MSS2, are about 120K/day.

    10 Dec 2014 roadshow argued their div was sustainable and could even grow. At $40M per yr payout, I would prefer that cash was used if they bought debt, selling at 60% of par....a better use of their cash ultimately.

    Stacking is not a high expense, and some units will sell, which is part of a fleet renewal.

    Prospectors, with a favorable debt profile, strengthens cash flow thru 2017, and was a ness army and opportunistic acquisition for a business that is shuddering older rigs, and must replace the cash flow. This is how.one does that.

    Their #$%$ especially have a demand from a particular client base looking for cost effective solutions....that demand will continue, perhaps even more so, in this capital constrained environment for the next 2'yrs.

  • Reply to

    NAP -- Profit Sharing

    by irmr2005 Jan 20, 2015 3:19 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 20, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    Doubt it. Profit shares are computed based on 6 month and 12 month averages. Some, the impact of strengthening market won't be evident till 2H2015.

  • play_tow by play_tow Jan 20, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    The last time that spot charter rates for tankers (VLCC/Suez/Afra) were this high (in 2008), bunker prices were over $700 per tonne.

    Today, bunker price (Fujairah) trades at USD 283.5 per tone

    Owners operating in spot are gaining the advantage of both the strong spot charter prices, as in 2008, and the low operating costs....which was not true in 2008.

  • Euronav, to list under EURN on the NYSE, has today commenced its IPO with a goal to raise about $185M. it appears the IPO price is about $12.90 US dollars/share.

    Euronav employs its fleet both on the spot and period market. The VLCCs are all on the spot market at this time. They are traded in the Tankers International pool of which Euronav is one of the major partners. Euronav’s owned and operated fleet consists of 52 double hulled vessels being 1 V-Plus, 2 FSO vessels (both owned in 50%-50% joint venture), 26 VLCCs of which 1 in joint venture and 23 Suezmaxes (of which 4 in joint venture).

  • That is the 12-month target for TNP that provided in their initiation on Tsakos last month.

    Current price action speaks differently of course, and that is what mattes for the moment.

    Yet, its odd to have TNP shares trading below the yr ago levels, when shares on 21 January 2014 traded above $8.

    Its odd to see TNP shares trade below August 2014 prices, well before the surge in rates began.

    And, for what ever its worth, TNP traded at $16/sh a mere 5-yrs ago, yet they have greatly enlarged their fleet, and improved their balance sheet, and are facing a cyclical recovery in the tanker business today.

    Maybe the Global Hunter $17 target isn't out of the realm....

  • Euronav (EURN) is doing a NYSE IPO today. They own about 50 VLCC and Suezmax, on the water fleet, with the VLCC all spot. No new build program, they mostly purchase on the second hand market, and had completed a 15 VLCC purchase in early 2014 for less than $1B....a timely move given subsequent market forces.

    Their IPO will raise about $180M.

  • Euronav begins IPO offering of shares on NYSE today, under symbol EURN.

    Pure play tanker, owning about 50 VLCC and Suezmax

  • Reply to

    FRO Assets

    by semper_grumpy Jan 17, 2015 10:02 PM
    play_tow play_tow Jan 18, 2015 10:02 PM Flag

    Bit confusing. SFL owns 12 VLCC that are chartered to FRO on long term lease obligations. Likewise, it owns 5 Suezmax which are chartered to FRO.

    So, these are assets owned by SFL, not by FRO. And, FRO earnings on these is the difference between their hire rates and their lease obligation to SFL ( I think these are effectively bareboat charters in which all costs are paid by FRO).

    So, if I have this right ( and please correct), the truly owned FRO fleet is 23 vessels, while the other 17 are effectively chartered-in. FRO is of course now profiting handsomely on those chartered-in vessels that are owned by SFL, and chartered by and managed by FRO.

    The point of the sale-leaseback was to improve the balance sheet of FRO at the time.

    In terms of asset value of their fleet, today.....it is only 23 vessels, I believe.

GLNG
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