I was reviewing some of the old analyst notes and the guy at Chardan is the most bullish and has Fovista global sales at $5 Billion by 2025.
Just saw this research by JP Morgan:
Updated - June 2, 2016 9:36 AM EDT)
JPMorgan upgraded Ophthotech Corp (NASDAQ: OPHT) from Neutral to Overweight with a price target of $84.00 (from $60.00). Analyst Anupam Rama sees a high probability of success for its phase 3 Fovista / Lucentis combination trials. Positive data could create upside of 55%-150% vs downside of about 80%, on low probability of failure.
"We have always had a favorable view of the phase 2b dataset for Fovista. Based on further physician diligence, conversations with the company, and literature review, we continue to see a very high POS for the Fovista phase 3 Lucentis combination studies reading out in 4Q (80% POS in model). Our base case assumes a ~4+ letter gain in visual acuity (VA) compared to Lucentis monotherapy (i.e., near replication of phase 2b results; also current Street benchmark) resulting in ~55-60% upside, with the homerun scenario (5+ letter VA gain) resulting in ~150% upside, by our analysis," said Rama.
"Our very worst case scenario, or outright trial failure, would result in ~80-85% downside (or trading to cash; low probability, in our view). Indeed, we see a classic biotech binary event ahead for OPHT shares," continued the analyst.
Rama added, "Interestingly, while VA has been the major focus by the Street (rightfully so, being the phase 3 primary endpoint), we believe product differentiation by Fovista will ultimately also come from the totality of the data, including relative benefit on key secondary endpoints (i.e., % of patients with ≥20/25 vision, etc.). We believe secondary endpoint benefit is an underappreciated point by the Street and prior phase 2b data suggest differentiation from standard of care. For reference, we estimate peak Fovista sales of ~$2B+ globally in our base case. Net-net, our move to Overweight is based on our expectations of a positive results in the phase 3 Fovista readout, meaningful clinical differentiation, and multi-billion dollar sales potential."
Looks like another runup happening in anticipation of updates at Goldman conference. Fovista trial data should have started to be analyzed for 4th quarter release date.
"Our collaboration with Novartis is going extremely well. As you all know, our ex-US partner for Fovista. In fact, on the Novartis first quarter 2016 earnings call, Joe Jimenez, the Novartis CEO, was talking about the broad and deep pipeline of Novartis. And in that public discussion, included Fovista as one of their potential blockbusters and growing areas of healthcare. So we're very excited that throughout the Novartis organization, there's great excitement about Fovista and we're seeing that in our day-to-day interactions."
David Guyer, CEO Ophthotech on recent earnings conference call
I think it looks very solid as well. All data from previous trials points in the right direction. Novartis is savvy and is backing this company 100%.
Funny to see the stock acting like a yo-yo. I'm guessing there will be a pretty big runup in the stock price leading up to the big fourth quarter news. The stock certainly is volatile.
Citi says inversion pushback should goose M&A activity in smaller biotechs
Apr 8 2016, 10:15 ET | By: Douglas W. House, SA News Editor Contact this editor with comments or a news tip
In a note to investors, Citi says the U.S. Treasury's recent pushback on inversion deals bodes well for merger and acquisition activity in small and mid cap biotechs as large caps move to beef up R&D pipelines.Likely targets over the next 12-18 months are: Ardelyx (ARDX +2.4%), Medivation (MDVN -0.2%), Ophthotech (OPHT +1.5%), Puma Biotechnology (PBYI +1.6%), Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA +3%), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE -1.1%), Relypsa (RLYP -3.2%) and Versartis (VSAR -2.1%).
I haven't seen or heard anything from the company regarding pricing for the drug or peak sales. Take a look at the Motley Fool blurb posted today that quotes an analyst projecting EPS over $7 in 2020.