Just talked to an old friend of mine who just retired. He said he was able to retire because his portfolio has been 60/40 (stock/bond&cash funds) since right after the bottom in March 2009. (He has part of the bond portion in PTTRX) And, the equity portion is well diversified. Seems like a fairly conservative approach. But, he's done very well.
And, he said he expects the stock rally to continue for years (with periodic interruptions for pullbacks and corrections). He mentioned something called a secular bull market. Is he delusional?
Probably will be good for stocks. Yet another situation where it's necessary to hold ones' nose and buy equity funds. (Or at least have a well diversified portfolio with a sensible equity allocation, or a targeted retirement fund).
I heard a talking head on TV say something interesting about the stock market. On March 24, 2000 the S & P 500 hit an intraday (not closing) high of 1,553. And, the S & P 500 opened up 2014 at 1,848. So, it increased a net of 19% in that 13 year period. That's an average of 1.47% a year. I guess that's one of the reasons why I have trouble with the concept that we might be in a stock market bubble. But, only the passing of time will let us know for sure.
I have a friend that has decided to retire later this year. And, part of the reason is that he thinks we're in a long term (secular) bull market for stocks. He thinks the bull market started in 2013 when the S & P 500 first hit a significant new high for a significant period of time. And, he thinks that except for pullbacks and corrections (some of which could be +25%) the market wil be in a generally upward trend for a number of years like it was in 1982 through 2000. So, he thinks he'll be able to take a slightly higher annual draw from his investments if necessary.
Hope he's right fof his sake. But, there are a lot of analysts out there who disagree. Unfortunately we don't usually know for sure until its over like in 2001. Time will tell.
I'm just happy to see it rising again. Could it possibly have bottomed yesterday? It went down below 200 day SMA. I guess time will tell.
Good points. One analysis I read said that XOM missed analysts earnings guesses (by one cent) because of the world prices of fossil fuels and prevailing refining margins, neither of which XOM has any control over.
Here's a good joke. the Chief Equity Strategist for Charle Schwabb thinks that we could have a 10% correction in stocks here, but she expects the overall rally in stocks to last for years. She thinks we're in a secular bull market. Maybe she's just trying to get more people to buy stocks.
Cramer's web site, The Street, just reiterated their rating on Exxon. They have it as a buy. they don't always agree with Cramer.
Read an article a while back about Exxon that indicates they've done a lot of recruiting at MIT over the years. I'm sure that's helped them to keep a step ahead when it comes to technology.
Per Morningstar, PTTRX is down 7 hundreds of one percent for the YTD. (Pretty much flat for the YTD.) But, I admit that I'm a little miffed that I haven't made any return YTD on PTTRX. And, I'm also a little nervous that it might go down more as rates increase. So, I may lighten up some on my bond allocation.
Luckily, I'm diversified and my stock allocation is doing OK so far.
I keep seeing this statistic from the Employee Benefit Research Institute's survey quoted. 57%of households have less than $25,000 in savings. But, apparently that's not counting the home, pensions plans, deferred comp, 401ks, IRA's and who knows what else. So, its pretty much a meaningless statistic.
In his book, "The Intelligent Investor", the late Benjamin Graham says that an investor should never have less than 25% in bonds and 25% in stocks. All the investing Gurus seem to treat Graham with great respect.
Diversify your investments. Why not get into one of those targeted retirement funds and let the brokerage do the work relating to diversifying between stock funds and bond funds.Pick a fund that suits your risk tolerance.
I've been 52% in stocks and the rest in bond funds and cash like assets since 2009. My problem is keeping myself from getting greedy and increasing my percentage in equities during this crazy multi year rally. i know in my heart that as soon as I substantially increase my equity percentage, the stock market will start falling.
Currently, when the market rallies I'm glad that I'm AT LEAST 52% in stocks and when it falls I'm glad I'm ONLY 52% in stocks.