I heard a talking head on TV say something interesting about the stock market. On March 24, 2000 the S & P 500 hit an intraday (not closing) high of 1,553. And, the S & P 500 opened up 2014 at 1,848. So, it increased a net of 19% in that 13 year period. That's an average of 1.47% a year. I guess that's one of the reasons why I have trouble with the concept that we might be in a stock market bubble. But, only the passing of time will let us know for sure.
I have a friend that has decided to retire later this year. And, part of the reason is that he thinks we're in a long term (secular) bull market for stocks. He thinks the bull market started in 2013 when the S & P 500 first hit a significant new high for a significant period of time. And, he thinks that except for pullbacks and corrections (some of which could be +25%) the market wil be in a generally upward trend for a number of years like it was in 1982 through 2000. So, he thinks he'll be able to take a slightly higher annual draw from his investments if necessary.
Hope he's right fof his sake. But, there are a lot of analysts out there who disagree. Unfortunately we don't usually know for sure until its over like in 2001. Time will tell.
Good points. One analysis I read said that XOM missed analysts earnings guesses (by one cent) because of the world prices of fossil fuels and prevailing refining margins, neither of which XOM has any control over.
Here's a good joke. the Chief Equity Strategist for Charle Schwabb thinks that we could have a 10% correction in stocks here, but she expects the overall rally in stocks to last for years. She thinks we're in a secular bull market. Maybe she's just trying to get more people to buy stocks.