Almost 100 replies and not even a day old. This post has got to be an all time record. Good job Reza. Keep the shorts squirming.
A bit touchy there. We are all entitled to our own opinions. Why bother responding to Reza's post keeping it on top for all to see?
It was the negative comments that caused the delay. DEA batches comments in their response. It didn't matter if there were 1 or 1000 comments supporting Belviq. It did matter how many different negative comments. Reza is an asset for ARNA. He can publish what ARNA management knows but chose not to disclose due to Jack's reluctance to be involved in politics. But it will help shareholders to expose the worms hidden beneath the rocks with widespread publicity about possible corruption.
I have to say that Reza has more cajones than any poster on this board. Whether you agree or disagree with his position, you have no doubt that he will indeed launch his May 9th newspaper ads. This speaks of his dedication and impact as an investor in ARNA.
Others are merely armchair investors with possible hidden agenda. No one else had the guts to testify before FDA. No one consistently posts articles supporting ARNA. Critics of Reza need to reveal who they really are: name, website, etc.
Reza has nothing to hide and his website is in plain sight for all to see.
To me, Reza epitomizes the American spirit and I am proud of such a fellow true blooded American. God bless America.
JACC poster should not be given any credence as it was obviously flawed and erroneous. Also, it was not subject to peer review. If Adam or any other journalist were to quote it they will be seriously discredited for quoting unverified work. Believe me, the JACC "meta-analysis" will die by a thousand cuts from peer reviewers not beholden to hedge funds. It was not even a true meta-analysis as the JACC frauds used the three trials conducted by ARNA and omitted key findings such as the incidence of valvulopathy in placebo patients and including patients who did not have AR at baseline to skew the number of "participants" in the analysis. Please see Dr. Dan's thorough critique. Basically, the poster was a hack job to tank ARNA shares timed with DEA scheduling.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
They will gloat again
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Please remember why you purchased ARNA in the first place. You did not buy this stock only on technicals, because ever since last summer, there was no momentum. You did not buy it on the recommendation of The Street, Seeking alpha or Cramer, because they warned you not to over and over again. Instead, you believed in the science and epidemiology of the obesity pandemic. You probably projected out years from now, what the potential of Belviq could be. That is why you bought. If you sell now, you are capitulating after 2 months of constant drubbing of professional shorts.
Exactly, the game is played over and over again by professional shorts and trading houses. Their algorithms plays on the emotions of retail longs. They wait for retail and institutes to bring the price back up, then short with conviction once a panic buying sets in. This game will be played until solid sales numbers are reported. Then it's off to another easy biotech prey to manipulate.
Shorts began back when we hit $10-11 mid January. They are looking at booking a gain of 60%. There is no further reason for pushing the price lower as DEA is now at 60 days. Given the statistical law of averages, we are already a couple of deviation away from the average for DEA 42 days to finalize scheduling. This coupled with the large gain leads to risk managers calling in chips and covering. Once this occurs, expect a quick upside as other trading houses risk managers applying the same algorithm to book profits for shorts.
This is the 3rd time experiencing capitulation with this stock during the past year. First, was during the drop from $11 to $7 after VVUS PDUFA approval in July. The bottom came in August. Then the next drop occurred in October with capitulation 2 weeks later. Now, this 3rd drop actually started on Jan 18th with closing of DEA comment period coinciding with EMA objections. We did not drop as violently and bounced off $8 support several times during the past month. Today, we are experiencing the final takedown as hedge funds waited until low volume and Cyprus (general market) sell off to attack and cause panic in retail longs.
This is retail panicking today with the selloff. Looking at the last 5 day chart, you can see a clear breakdown starting this morning. As the day progressed, retail margin calls and frustrated longs compete with professional shorts to sell lower. With DEA scheduling finalization due within the next few days, longs who sell here will likely regret this decision as the move upward should be violent and rapid. The professional shorts know this and are using the selloff as opportunity to cover some of their shares and the institutions are also accumulating here. This accounts for the higher than average volume today.
We've been seeing nearly constant red for the last 2 months during DEA finalization. I think we are close to capitulation if not there already. The desperation in longs post and glee in shorts bashes indicates that we are very close to significant news. This coupled with DEA already using up 60 days during the finalization process speaks volumes. I don't expect the DEA to take much longer as 63 days was the longest it took for Nucynta (and that was a proposed Class II).
We should get news by Friday 3/22 as that will be 63 days. (The average time DEA took in the finalizing period was 42 days.)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We are getting close to finalizing. According to Mark Ammann, pharmd only Nucynta took longer at 63 days for DEA finalization after comment period closed. Google "average time for DEA schedule" to see article for yourself.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Excellent summary of shorts strategy during the past 8 months. I also think that they are keeping the price boring to induce leathargy in many retail longs and daytraders. Based on the lower volume since Jan 2013, many have decided not to actively trade ARNA and went elsewhere to chase short term gains. I am particularly interested in how the combination of shorts covering, institutes buying and retail longs returning to ARNA will impact PPS in the next 9 months.
Each day that DEA delays means more time for Eisai and ARNA to prepare for launch. As can be seen in VVUS case, quick to market doesn't translate to higher sales. It also means more time for Eisai to create print and television ads. Case in point: the highly anticipated release of Sim City was a total failure and cost EA customer loyalty.
Also a sense of complacency has settled in the short's mind. They no longer feel the danger of $billions pouring into ARNA shares and use TA to sell and cover in a narrow range. It will only be a matter of days before a final decision is rendered by DEA. Longs should be as excited as a first time expectant father. The Belviq baby is about to be delivered full term and vibrant. (Instead of the premie delivered by VVUS currently online support).
Ask any pediatrician what their worst nightmare is when it comes to seeing a child with acute abdominal pain. It is sending someone home with a benign diagnosis such as gastroenteritis and then getting a call that their patient had to be operated on for a perforated appendix. I know of one pediatrician who gave up his clinical practice because he sent a child home who ended up with perforated appendicitis. This pediatrician is a well respected academician at one of the most prestigious pediatric hospital in the world.
APPY1 will not only save lives, it will give pediatricians and emergentologists the peace of mind without using radiation on young children.
Currently APPY is flying under the radar as a microcap biotech with a checkered history. The reverse splits in the past did not help. However, what venaxis holds in patented technology including MRP 8/14, should ensure a wide moat around their test that will be a must have in all labs serving pediatricians and emergency depts all over the world.
With only a short time before enrollment is completed for their large prospective FDA trial, I expect to see some action in PPS as buzz is generated amongst pediatricians, ER clinicians, and early adopters. The $2 will soon be history as this company's cap should be close to $50 million along the lines of most other small biotechs with similar promising future.
Sentiment: Strong Buy