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Continental Materials Corp. Message Board

pmlljl 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 26, 2014 1:23 PM Member since: Jan 9, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Run Away!

    by dsouth7777 Jun 18, 2014 3:57 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Jun 26, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    dsouth7777:

    I am glad that you agree with my post. It doesn't happen often.

  • Reply to

    Run Away!

    by dsouth7777 Jun 18, 2014 3:57 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Jun 24, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Well, I thought that the recent sharp decline in the price of NWLI was a good opportunity to make a short-term trade. So I bought more shares in my IRA at just below $244 and sold those same shares today at just below $251 realizing a non-taxable short-term gain of about $7 per share. I still have a large core position in NWLI that I did not change. NWLI is my only long position in what I think is a dangerously overpriced market due to the Fed holding interest rates at near zero %. I can't find anything else that I want to buy and have nearly 50% of my assets in cash earning nothing. I have covered about 90% of my AMZN short with about a 20% realized gain. I don't know what else to do while waiting for the Fed to quit persecuting savers and old folks.
    Maybe NWLI will go back down again giving me a chance to reload for another short-term trade.

  • pmlljl pmlljl Jun 5, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Well it was only $30,000 and that is about half of what he was paid in director fees.

  • To NWLI true believers and value investors:

    Around the end of 2013 I thought the market was getting very frothy in the tech, biotech and other momentum type stocks and that some of them were in for a decline that would probably affect the overall market. So I sold all of my stocks except NWLI. I did reduce my position in NWLI, but it is still a very large position. In order to hedge against a decline in NWLI, I decided to short Amazon.

    The way I looked at it was that NWLI and AMZN represented two extremes of what a value investor would be interested in. NWLI was selling at about 9 times earnings and 60% of book value and AMZN was selling at 635 times earnings and 20 times book value. If that wasn't irrational, what is? So while NWLI has declined
    somewhat off of its highs, my short of AMZN has cushioned the loss in my account. I started to short AMZN at about $385 and continued to short it as it continued to rise. My highest short trade was at $405.99.
    Today I covered part of my short at $305 and made $100 dollars per share on the highest priced short trade.

    I don't think 2014 is going to be a good year in the market. Some of the warning signs are as follows:

    So many IPOs of companies with operating losses.

    So many companies buying back enormous amounts of stock at very high prices as compared to the very few buybacks in 2009 when they could have bought back the same shares for a fraction of current prices.

    Record margin debt.

    Many insider sales.

    Many dividend increases and companies operating at very high operating margins. (but not AMZN)

    The Fed keeping interest rates at 0% going on six years.

  • Reply to

    $105

    by dsouth7777 Apr 14, 2014 3:09 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Apr 14, 2014 10:14 PM Flag

    dsouth7777:

    Markets are IRRATIONAL. If this one gets back to $65 like it was in about October of 2012 I will be all over it again. Pray for more irrationality.

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