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Investors Title Co. Message Board

pmlljl 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 26, 2014 1:23 PM Member since: Jan 9, 2001
  • Reply to

    Run Away!

    by dsouth7777 Jun 18, 2014 3:57 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Jun 26, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    dsouth7777:

    I am glad that you agree with my post. It doesn't happen often.

  • Reply to

    Run Away!

    by dsouth7777 Jun 18, 2014 3:57 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Jun 24, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Well, I thought that the recent sharp decline in the price of NWLI was a good opportunity to make a short-term trade. So I bought more shares in my IRA at just below $244 and sold those same shares today at just below $251 realizing a non-taxable short-term gain of about $7 per share. I still have a large core position in NWLI that I did not change. NWLI is my only long position in what I think is a dangerously overpriced market due to the Fed holding interest rates at near zero %. I can't find anything else that I want to buy and have nearly 50% of my assets in cash earning nothing. I have covered about 90% of my AMZN short with about a 20% realized gain. I don't know what else to do while waiting for the Fed to quit persecuting savers and old folks.
    Maybe NWLI will go back down again giving me a chance to reload for another short-term trade.

  • pmlljl pmlljl Jun 5, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Well it was only $30,000 and that is about half of what he was paid in director fees.

  • To NWLI true believers and value investors:

    Around the end of 2013 I thought the market was getting very frothy in the tech, biotech and other momentum type stocks and that some of them were in for a decline that would probably affect the overall market. So I sold all of my stocks except NWLI. I did reduce my position in NWLI, but it is still a very large position. In order to hedge against a decline in NWLI, I decided to short Amazon.

    The way I looked at it was that NWLI and AMZN represented two extremes of what a value investor would be interested in. NWLI was selling at about 9 times earnings and 60% of book value and AMZN was selling at 635 times earnings and 20 times book value. If that wasn't irrational, what is? So while NWLI has declined
    somewhat off of its highs, my short of AMZN has cushioned the loss in my account. I started to short AMZN at about $385 and continued to short it as it continued to rise. My highest short trade was at $405.99.
    Today I covered part of my short at $305 and made $100 dollars per share on the highest priced short trade.

    I don't think 2014 is going to be a good year in the market. Some of the warning signs are as follows:

    So many IPOs of companies with operating losses.

    So many companies buying back enormous amounts of stock at very high prices as compared to the very few buybacks in 2009 when they could have bought back the same shares for a fraction of current prices.

    Record margin debt.

    Many insider sales.

    Many dividend increases and companies operating at very high operating margins. (but not AMZN)

    The Fed keeping interest rates at 0% going on six years.

  • Reply to

    $105

    by dsouth7777 Apr 14, 2014 3:09 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Apr 14, 2014 10:14 PM Flag

    dsouth7777:

    Markets are IRRATIONAL. If this one gets back to $65 like it was in about October of 2012 I will be all over it again. Pray for more irrationality.

  • Reply to

    it will hit $400 again

    by retire_yung Apr 4, 2014 1:02 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Apr 4, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Maybe his 200th birthday.

    Right now MOMENTUM is to the downside and the volume is increasing. All the rats are jumping ship.

  • Reply to

    VERY STRANGE MANAGEMENT

    by bobacequ Apr 3, 2014 4:54 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Apr 4, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    bobacequ:

    I don't imagine that the Gidwitz's are "happy", but they are in an industry where it has been tough to make a buck for a few years. They did manage to make money by suing their insurance company. Then there is the matter of executive compensation. James Gidwitz makes a salary of $650,000 for managing a company that as you correctly pointed out, doesn't make money. And I don't know how much they make on directors fees, retirement pay, insurance and other compensation. So I would say that the company is run for the benefit of the Gidwitz's rather than the minority stockholders.

    Finally, I would say that when you look at book value, you need to deduct the amount shown as goodwill (over $7,000,000) because this company does certainly not have an exceptionally high return on its invested capital.

    I owned this stock several times and I made good money by timing my purchases and sales. However, I don't own it now and I would look elsewhere because I don't think the Gidwitz's have their shareholders best interests in mind.

  • pmlljl pmlljl Apr 3, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    Sardar and Biglari Holdings should be included in an ETF for companies run by greedy egomaniacs.

  • pmlljl pmlljl Mar 16, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    curt.brandt:

    I feel hurt. You left me out of your post at part 4. f. Main shareholders

  • Insider transaction reports that Amazon's fearless leader Jeff Bezos recently sold 1,000,000 shares of Amazon stock. Other directors have also sold stock. I think the rats are abandoning a sinking ship.

  • Reply to

    Watch Out Below!

    by dsouth7777 Feb 3, 2014 12:07 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Feb 3, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    batraa:

    I agree with your analysis. However, I prefer to try to trade it closer to the extremes at the risk of missing the turn. My decision relies on my belief that
    the market has no clue how to price stocks. That is why I shorted Amazon.

  • Reply to

    Watch Out Below!

    by dsouth7777 Feb 3, 2014 12:07 PM
    pmlljl pmlljl Feb 3, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    dsouth7777 and batraa:

    I am pretty much in agreement with your posts but the problem is that in a correction or a bear market, prices just keep going lower. In the short term, the market is not always rational. I sold
    a lot of my stocks including some of my NWLI but NWLI is still by far my largest position. I will
    buy a lot more NWLI at lower prices but I imagine it will be some time before I am interested buying.

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