What needs to be understood is in the Bakkens; If a Horizontal Rig is idled; it is not one Well that won't be drilled.
In North Dakota; you are talking Pad drilling of Four or more Wells that won't get drilled.
In the Eagle Ford; Pad drilling is in early stages.
Total Rig Count is Down 18 Rigs; Rigs drilling for Natural Gas is Down 8 Rigs
Posted on Investor Village; Message # 71454
"TMR" Message Board
Note that Horizontal Rigs are now dropping.
These Rigs are used in the Bakkens and Eagle Ford.
Correction: Should read that Abraxas has THREE other wells Permitted:
29779 33053064000000 ABRAXAS PETROLEUM CORP. STEN-RAV 1H NWNW 26-T150N-R97W
29780 33053064010000 ABRAXAS PETROLEUM CORP. RAVIN 8H NWNW 26-T150N-R97W
29990 33053064700000 ABRAXAS PETROLEUM CORP. STENEHJEM 5H NWNW 26-T150N-R97W
Three different Well names at same location.
Posted on Investor Village; Message #8385; "AXAS" Message Board.
These 4 Wells should be completing its drilling (the Last of Verticals & all four horizontal Laterals) in late February.
Abraxas has only two other Wells Permitted in the Bakkens; Abraxas may Permit Wells in the the New Sections of the Bakkens that they acquired.
Futures & Indexes
Futures Last Change
Crude Oil 56.84 0.93
Natural Gas 3.637 -0.060
Gold 1196.8 -10.9
Copper 2.87 -0.01
Coffee 175.55 -3.10
Corn (¢) 407.50 -1.00
Lean Hogs (¢) 82.775 -0.500
Live Cattle (¢) 158.750 -3.000
Soybeans (¢) 1038.5 -7.5
Sugar (¢) 14.85 -0.11
Wheat (¢) 634.5 15.5
Lumber 333.5 -2.1
See note on contract specifications and update times
1. The Three Stenehjem Wells: So far ; good news; remember these are Thee Forks Formation Wells which normally don't produce as good the Middle Bakken Formation. The delay in the pipeline might turn into a blessing when Crude Prices go up.
2. The Two Dutch Wells are very good like the first two Dutch Wells.
3. If the Cat Eye Well turns out very good; Abraxas Jourdanton South Block has very many drilling locations.
4. The Four Jore Federal Wells being drilled is going smoothly. When Abraxas Completes these Wells starting in April, Completions Costs should have dropped by them.
5. Abraxas 2014 Year End Exit Rate is great, giving Abraxas a nice production rate without spending High CAP EX.
6. With all this new Wells; Proven Reserves should have a nice Big Jump.
7. Also note that Natural Gas is approx. 25% of the Production and Natural Gas Prices are holding steady and will go up with winter weather.
8. Please note, as Rigs drilling for Oil dropped even more, most of these Oil Wells drilled produced a lot of Natural Gas. As Supply of Natural Gas drop, Natural Gas Prices will go Up.
Too Much Oil in North Dakota.
Most Oil; is shipped by truck to a railroad terminal and then shipped to East & West Coast.
Transportation Cost is too high.
Sep Sweet Crude Price = $74.85/barrel
Oct Sweet Crude Price = $68.94/barrel
Nov Sweet Crude Price = $60.61/barrel
Today Sweet Crude Price = $41.75/barrel (lowest since March 2009) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
See Investor Village; "BRY" Message Board; Message #156540
PPrices could plateau production: Helms says 2015 could be tough for oil
By April Baumgarten on Dec 12, 2014 at 10:29 p.m
BISMARCK — With oil prices on a steep downward slump, 2015 could be a tough year for oil producers, North Dakota’s lead regulator for the industry.
“I started talking months ago about soft oil prices in 2015. I had no idea how soft,” said Lynn Helms, director for the state Department of Mineral Resources.
“I honestly did not see them this soft, and that is going to have a significant impact.”
Sweet crude in North Dakota was at $41.75 per barrel on Friday, according to the report, the lowest since March 2009, before the current boom. The price of oil has dropped 40 percent since June. The New York Mercantile closed Friday with $57.81 per barrel. The all-time high was $136.29 in July 2008.
October rounded out with almost 1.18 million barrels produced a day, just under September’s numbers. It’s the first time in North Dakota hasn’t set a production record in eight months, Helms said. In the current climate, production could plateau.
The rig count also has gone from 191 in October to 183 currently.
Helms said the commission has already been advised by a half-dozen companies that from January through March they expect to cut their rig count down by 30, as they let their two- to three-year rig contracts expire every month. He cited Oasis Petroleum’s plan to reduce its rig count by 10 rigs in the first half of 2015 as the company lets its rig contracts expire.
If this price declines continue into next year, Helm said we could see another 12 or 15 rigs being released. That could also slow down production.
“It’s not like we’re going to see a drastic, sudden drop, but we’re going to see all of the major companies laddering their rig count down as we walk through January, February, March and maybe further as oil prices stay down,” he said."
Abraxas wording was:
Will continue to monitor;
without commodity price recovery; rig potentially released aster R. Henry #1H.
Note Presentation was dated December 8th ; price of Oil has been dropping steady since then.
Seem strange that Abraxas would Permit a Eagle Ford Well when AXAS talking of stopping drilling after the Henry #1H Well.
Maybe the South Block's Cat Eye Well is really good and Abraxas wants to confirm the South Block with a Well East of the Cat Eye Well.
Lets hope this is the case.
Message #8378, Investor Village; "AXAS" Message Board
posted on Investor Village; Message #71429
"TMR" Message Board.
CAP EX spending is starting drop pretty quick.
You got it.
Just a Note;
Almost all Hedges are with a subsidiary of the Lending Bank.
Wells Fargo subsidiary is a big Hedge counter party.
Hedges are used to backup Reserve Valuation.
Go to Page F-1 of the Year 2013 10K:
"The counterparties to our derivative contracts are the same financial institutions from which we have outstanding debt; accordingly, we believe our exposure to credit risk to these counterparties is currently mitigated in part by this, as well as the current overall financial condition of the counterparties. "
As you see; as long as Abraxas has Loans outstanding; there is NO RISK.