Picked up OCUL on Monday @$8.34. CYBR was closer to $38. GLUU will come into its own. In the big picture they are still a young growing company. EA struggled in the beginning. Glu is well managed, have invested well in other companies. It will take time to see the benefits, but the benefits are coming.
I don't believe Tencent is interested in owning Glu. Tencent has a greater interest in having its fingers in a number of companies. IE: ATVI. It makes more sense for Tencent to own stakes in companies then to own and control. Their main focus is the Asian market. Owning shares in both ATVI and GLUU allows Tencent access to the US markets. And, perhaps, provides an edge to their competitors. In exchange for the partnership Tencent gets it games played in the US and in turn Glu and eventually ATVI will have their mobile games played in Asia. As for a takeover, Glu will need to prove it can consistently maintain a solid income before it can be an attractive takeover target.
Hey six, did you notice ivo's post regarding OCUL? Must have been a week or so ago. The last few nights I've been reading up on it. It seems many analysts are calling for it to move from the mid $8's to the $30's. I really don't see the reason for this. But, I think it's worth keeping on your watch list. A 300% move would be impressive. Haven't bought in as the stock seems stagnant. Will pick up a few shares should it start to move.
I did, on Tuesday, @$37.80. Only a couple of dozen shares. Will give thought when it closes in on $48. Would like to see it cross $50. SA says CYBR is a long hold. Maybe. I see it as a short play. I also added to my Glu core when down @ $3.20, I am so top heavy with Glu. But, I do see (hope?) good things in April.
Hey six, noticed CYBR has gotten pretty cheap. Currently $38 and change. Not sure if I want to play it again, but I think it could touch $48 with little if any trouble. Again, not sure. It does have a habit of swings. Can call for more concentration then I want to give. Are you still holding any?
I do feel Glu will see a healthy pop when Perry is launched. Just not sure if the price will hold. Better days ahead for Glu in the beginning of the new year.
Tencent has been aggressive. For a short time Tencent even moved into second. Asia is at the beginning of a slow down. The public is being conservative with income. Tencent believes mobile games will excel because of being inexpensive to play. In other words, a cheap form of entertainment. If they plan a takeover I don't think it will be outside the Asian market. However, I do believe Tencent will continue to invest in other companies. Businesses that benefit its platform. They have a stake in GLUU as well as ACTVI. They will promote games from both companies in Asia, and, in turn, give their games to the US markets. Glu was fortunate to get Tencent's most popular game. Hopefully it will have the same success here. I should note, Alibaba and Baidu are listed on the US markets, where as Tencent is only listed on the Asian market. I find that of interest.
Thanks Chart-watcher99. Nice run down.
I have to admit, Glu is about as low as it's going. Currently, it's bucking the trends going up as the markets are red. A 10% move from here would be $3.60. Many investors hope to have 10% for the year. But, Glu will return to the $4's. That's a 25% move. If you cash out, and Glu continues up you'll still have a 25% gain in your pocket. Of course, many of us see Glu going back to the $6's, or up 100% from here. I'm not alone in this thinking. Other investors and traders see this price as a bargain. That would explain Glu being green today. I have added to my trade shares. My thinking is Glu is going through growing pains. Might as well capitalize on it.
Just An Opinion or Two part 2
We might see a pop when KP drops. If Glu fails to release the game on December 17 the price will drift down. When Q4 reports earnings the numbers will be stable and guidance reserved. But at the same time I do expect better numbers and guidance when Q2 reports. Only time will tell. If you have shares, hold them. If you plan on buying, do so, but there is no rush. In the end Glu will be making money. We just need to get through the next 2 quarters.
So, let's take a look at where Glu has been this year. In January mid $3's but Q4's numbers and guidance moved it to the $5's. Again in Q1 numbers and guidance moved the stock to the mid $6's. My expectation of Q2's guidance for Q3 was high. However, although the numbers were good de Masi lowered expectations for Q3. Mainly due to a slow release of games. With Q3 the numbers were again positive, but the guidance for the next two quarters was lowered. This is where we currently sit.
I don't think much will change during Q4. KP will drop, maybe, two weeks before the close of the quarter. Not enough time for drawing estimates. We were told games that used to hold the top spots for a long time no longer do given attention spade and competition. We were also told Glu would not be doing a stock buy back. They have the money so I wonder if it is ear marked for something else. Lastly, no employee will receive a bonus until Glu regains ground. Fair enough.
Glu will be handling Tencent's Wefire game. Hugely popular in Asia. Also, de Masi said many of the games were receiving foreign languages. The implication, Glu's games are to be marketed in other countries. KP will hopefully drop near the mid or end of December. And Jenners will hopefully drop the first of February. I expect both these games, at least in the beginning, to draw a lot of players and money. I am under the opinion Q1 will have solid, very solid, numbers. I think things will look a little more optimistic in Q2. Keep in mind foreign markets and the launch of VR are in Glu's favor. Also, Tencent is being aggressive in Asia. With a recession upon them Tencent is promoting big time mobile games. The thinking, no matter how tight things become people will always play mobile games as a cheap form of entertainment. Tencent will be using Glu's games.
Conclusion; between now and January I don't expect much from Glu. ( More to follow.)
Good post, kidandi. I agree with your points and opinions. When time allows I hope to share my views as well. But again, good post. Thanks.
Yeah, Star, we are finally here. It's good to see ZNGA and KING did well. Hope the same for us. Enjoy your sleep.
Hey sixman, as you know my focus has been for Q4. What will be important in Q3 will be the foreword guidance. As for this price swing, as well run Glu is, it is still a volatile company. I'm looking foreword to conversations on Nov. 6.
The voice of reason. I'm with you on this, andnow4me. I don't feel a leak is the cause for the price drop. But, it is unusual.
Sixman, I have no knowledge of what Glu and Tencent have in the works. Should it come to fruition it will be a strong addition to Glu's bottom line. If KP drops now it will be difficult for de Masi to accurately predict the revenues. If KP is part of the forward guidance he may again be conservative with numbers for KP. I do think if Katy drops in the next couple of weeks Glu will see a pop on that day. KKH brought Glu up to the $7's just on the announcement. But, investors quickly sold off realizing there were no revenues, yet. If Glu can beat the -0.04 that's predicted and has some solid numbers, along with the announcement of KP and an update on the Jenners, I would hope Glu would move in on $6. My hopes are more focused on Q4. So, being conservative I think it's possible for Glu to close in or over $6. Don't forget, we are at $4. A two buck pop would be a 50% gain.
Sold CYBR when it was just under $54. Have been losing interest in it.
Star, it's true, Katy Perry has a large following and there would be a great deal of activity with her game in the opening months. But, keep in mind, if what Mondom says does pan out with Tencent and China, and they offer Perry to the China market, the response would be unimaginable. Singers like Katy and Swift have legions of followers in China.
You're right about Glu being sparse with news releases. This of course does not pertain to game releases. It was my hope KP would be released prior to earnings. However, de Masi may be saving it for the cc.
As for ZNGA, it might have a minor effect on Glu. But Glu reports two days later. This will have the impact on the stock price, whether good or bad.
This seems to be going round and round. First, there is nothing any of us can do with the success or failure of Glu. All we can do is buy shares based on our own DD, or sell. Playing "what if" can be unnerving.
I am invested with Glu, and I also trade Glu. Glu is relatively a young company. It is still evolving. I believe in de Masi and his team. I feel each step is well throughout. They didn't rush to open numerous offices. They only have as the work load dictated. They've invested in other companies that will produce a good income down the road. But most importantly, are the games. They are producing an income. Some strongly, while others, like Bond, disappoint. Having a celeb genre has been golden. Glu understands how to capitalize on them. Other game companies have tried and failed. I fully expect Glu to take a bounce when KP drops. I have bought shares in the low $4's in anticipation. When the stock price lifts I'll sell them off. That's the trade. But I also hold shares bought in the low $3's. I will continue to hold these because in the long run Glu will become a more valuable then it is today. And that's the investment.
I think we all had low expectations with Bond. But our expectations with KP are justified. For the short, no matter how successful or unsuccessful KP is, there is money to be made. But I do see the celeb games continually producing an income.