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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

pointdog11 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 21, 2012 2:02 PM Member since: Oct 4, 2012
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  • Reply to

    4the quarter price moves

    by pointdog11 Oct 15, 2012 4:48 PM
    pointdog11 pointdog11 Dec 21, 2012 2:02 PM Flag

    Money managerws doing their tear end numbers crunching should give this high yieding low PE ratio a pop..

    Get in now folks the money supply is cranking up, and your dollars are better in a REIT than under your mattress.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pointdog11 pointdog11 Dec 21, 2012 1:59 PM Flag

    Hey good post... Nice to see some srtong out performance of the broader market for a change.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pointdog11 pointdog11 Dec 5, 2012 1:26 AM Flag

    CBS is one of the few major media companies with revenue growth, couple that with strong increases in net profit per share, a growing dividend, share buy back program, and you have a year end load up for tax planning and retirement planning by money managers, mutual fund managers and those high paid executives looking to place their year end bonus money in a safe secure investment with good long term appreciation and a dividend that will out pace inflation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyback Program

    by jtrader64 Oct 30, 2012 2:00 PM
    pointdog11 pointdog11 Nov 2, 2012 1:15 AM Flag

    I think the most important detail to glean from the new policy is managements intent to support the stocks price when it drops below book value.. at that point it becomes accretive to book value to buy shares back and maximize shareholder returns.

    "As prudent stewards of your capital, we will seek to acquire common shares only when it is meaningfully accretive to our net book value per common share thereby further enhancing shareholder value."

    Also the return on average equity from comprehensive net income is off the charts at 50%, while most of the market is reading this company as a dividend play it is obvious it has used leverage in a virtual money free environment to grow the company. The policy to borrow at such low rates of interest and buy shares that are yielding a 50% return makes good sense. With all that good accounting valuation going on, the pebble in the shoe still remains that management has not hedged accurately in the second quarter 1.029 bln in losses and 460 mln in the third quarter. It seems intuitive now given the feds signal for a permanent QE3 till unemployment abates that managment would steer away from putting to much insurance money on any interest rate spikes up.

    One thing is almost clear that the environment for more share dilutions would seem to be counter productive unless interest rates go up. So no market risks for share dilutions decreasing trend in losses from hedging, and favorable resale valuation on MBS in inventory all point to better fundamentals over the next six months. Plus the shrinking number of share holders leaves room for potential increases in dividend, and eps over the next 6 months.

    I think the foundation is solid for a buy recommendation here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buying territory

    by yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 26, 2012 3:55 PM
    pointdog11 pointdog11 Oct 27, 2012 6:56 PM Flag

    yrp yrp... pdog sign for buy..check your three month chart its a big buy here.. Money managers will be craving the fixed income and potential capital appreciation to boot here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Now with the third quarter under its belt, how fat will the next dividend be? Good time for a small increase to the $1.25 dividend?

    Expected net per share all else being equal, $1.50 in net taxable income per share without the hedging miscues of the 2 nd quarter...

    gives a payout rate of $1.50*.10 = .15 - $1.50 = $1.35 per share..
    Selling at a 3 month low of $32.00 per share.

    Ahh better sprinkle down some more seed money here.

    Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pointdog11 pointdog11 Oct 16, 2012 10:41 AM Flag

    Strong dividend yield, consistent cash flow, maintance of spread, expectation of higher gains both paper and realized on sales of MBS at higher mortgage interest rates. Fed on QU3 indefinately housing market improving, banks reproting higher incomes..Seasonal investing period in high gear, expected end of year bonus money, IRA, Keogh, 401K money for tax planning coming in.. Get in now while its cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pointdog11 pointdog11 Oct 15, 2012 4:50 PM Flag

    A Bull Dog in the forum..Good post.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pointdog11 by pointdog11 Oct 15, 2012 4:48 PM Flag

    This time of year expect some seasonal dips, but on average over the past 3 years the cash flow has benefited investments in fixed income producers.

    The retail economy has grown not declined, the feds have increased the money supply not contracted it making interest rates low and cutting the cost of financing MBS purchases to almost zero. Money will flow into the market toward the last two weeks of December as bonuses get paid out and money managers look for yields, also IRA's, 401K, Keogh investing clips up during the Dec - March period..

    If you can get in low here with some dollar cost averaging plunk down 10%.. mid November another 30%, mid December 30%.. 70% invested by December should reap some nice returns as market turns up late December early January.

    Good luck to all.

  • Reply to

    Romney sold all his AGNC today--

    by kaptnkirk53 Oct 15, 2012 4:34 PM
    pointdog11 pointdog11 Oct 15, 2012 4:41 PM Flag

    Good..most GOP's are gonna take their bones and bury them in a the mattress under cash.. while inflation eats em up.. See Ben Bernanke for termite infestation of your cash position.. I on the other hand will average down on this dividend monster and keep accumulating returns that will eclipse inflation and the S&P 500.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Boosted share repurchase program...
    Shares outstanding 07/31/2012, 640.03 mln down 8.11 mln from 640.03 mln, 04/30/2012 sec filing...
    Ranked #1 in first week of television programming
    Revenue growth from previous year 6 month period ending 6/30/2012 over 6/30/2011
    7.4 bln up from 7.096 bln
    an increase of 304 mln / 7.096 or 4.32% increase in revenues.
    signed leasing deals with on-line media companies with higher programming fees
    Growing international audience and a deal with AMC networks

    Good management indicated with strong earnings increase at the bottom line
    first six month ending 06/30/2012 790 mln over
    the first six months ending 6/30/2011 of 597 mln
    an increase of
    193 mln or 193/597 a 32.32% increase

    all of the above prompting a quartlery dividend increase per share of 20%

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • At the end of 2011 DTV booked 27.226 billion in revenue, first quarter they clocked 7.046 billion and 7.224 billion end of 2nd quarter for a steady annual projected growth rate in revenues of 4.8% for 2012.

    Couple this with the massive buy back of its own shares on the open market of 27 mln per quarter. These two policies of aggressive growth and aggressive consolidation makes for that interesting mathematical proposition of a higher numerator revenues with a rapidly decreasing denominator.. Hence a very explosive outperforming model against industry peers and the S&P 500 over the next six months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Looks like the end of sep 30 mortgage rates FHA were approx at 3.40% for 30 year fixed mortgages dowd 26 basis points from the June end of quarter rate of approx 3.66%

    The drop in rate usually favors paper valuations and retail sales on existing mortgages in inventory, Mortages at higher rates sell for higher prices because they pay more interest than the going market rates of interest. The second quarter AGNC had 689 million in unrealized paper gains on valuations from the decline in mortgage rates from 3/31 to 6/30.

    However the other shoe dropped in the 2nd qtr as well;
    AGNC took a hit in the second quarter on losses from sales of derivative instruments of 1.029 billion which means they were hedging the inventory against an up tick in rates from a recovering economy.. They hedged wrong, and now the fed is officially on the hook for QE3 at keeping rates low..

    How did AGNC hedge for the third quarter did they still pay more for contract derivatives on the hook for hedging against higher interest rates.. If so there could be another hit in the making.. Its the one item thats almost impossible to predict when coming to forcasting the bottom line for mortgage companies.

    As for solid dividend yields and future outlook end of thrid quarter and rolling into the 4th quarter with the feds and QE3, it would be appear to be a solid foundation internally for agnc exec to not hedge the ship on any near term rates increases.

    Next 6 months for AGNC and other mortgage companies looks favorable even in a down market the re-investment of dividends here wiill produce exponential returns in 6 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

22.93-0.55(-2.34%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT

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