You don't understand options. The $8 calls were NOT exercised. Most brokerages do not automatically exercise in-the-money options unless they are worth at least .05. The $8 calls were worth .001/sh. The fee to exercise the options is higher than the fee to simply purchase shares. Additionally, you fail to realize that when the price ran up Friday, it reduced the value of PUT options. $8 was "max pain" because it caused the most pain to the combined call and puts, not just calls.
Oh contrair! Those options were owned by the shorts as a hedge. Now, their hedge has expired (they lost money), and the August 8's will cost them .85, which is too much. Monday, you are going to see a stampede as the shorts exit.
My gut says - this thing is going to shoot to the high 20's, and then settle down to 25 before the earnings announcement. Depending on what they say, it will end up somewhere between 20 and 40. I made a little money riding from 12 to almost 16 awhile back, and then lost interest. I felt it was a bit undervalued, but completely ignored and I knew I wouldn't be patient enough. Now, I am much more up-beat. Their SSD product sounds like a winner, although color me skeptical (I don't get how they were able to come out with a cheaper, faster, and lower power product that everyone else). The additional flash partner seems to be working out just like they planned. But, the big deal will be what they say about LTE. I was in the camp of thinking that would die out. But, if Samsung is seriously going to pitch their integrated modem, and if SIMO gets to sell a transceiver with every one, we are in for a huge ride. The q/q growth, plus the LTE/Samsung arrangement, is going to cause a lot of people to take a look at this stock. When they see the balance sheet, divy, and sales growth, it is going to take off. Now, if they say that the q/q growth was a one-time deal, and LTE is not a sure thing, and ???, then all bets are off.
I wasn't saying it is important. I said I have just as much experience as you (the call), and a degree (the raise). So you called my raise. You experience must have been wasted if you think this company is more likely to fold up shop than to go into full blow production. The debate is which bet has a better risk/reward profile. Shorting a $7 stock with a positive story is a very high risk, low reward gamble. Going long is lower risk, with a higher potential reward. Should I mention that 1/3 of the market cap is in cash? Finally, the premise you pitched was that since so many other people have shorted the stock, there must be something wrong with the company. It is a proven fact that contrarian investors make more money in the long run.
I call your 34 years, and raise you my MBA. Your comments are just plain stupid. Stating that high short interest indicates a problem with the company is absurd. It as absurd as using charts. READ what is happening with the company. It is highly short because the company underdelivered last year and there road to profitability was in question. Those questions have been removed, and the shorts (including yourself) are trapped. I use math, not tea leaves.
"Shorts do much more thorough due diligence than the longs." - that is one of the funniest things I've read here. You must be new to the market.
No. I don't see Samsung buying SIMO. I see them buying SIMO's transceiver team, possibly. The rest of SIMO is making money by working with Samsung's competitors in flash.
It is up today because of LTE. Samsung integrated their modem which means SIMO's LTE business just expanded significantly.
They were not in default. They were in breach. There is a huge difference. Also, no financing is needed. They are being hired to run the place. They have shown they are much better at operating casinos than purchasing them.
The margin concerns are a ghost. Selling bulbs lowers margin, but increases net profit. That is all that matters. It has increased the sales of chips, and that was the goal. All you have to do is go read the transcript from the last conference:
"Yes, so to focus on the bulb for a second, why did we do the bulb? .. ..The bigger overall market is the commercial segment. .. .. how do we establish Cree as a brand name within the lighting segment. We are very well known within the LED segment prior to that .. ..The fact that we were able to come out with an LED bulb that had a performance for life-time, looked and felt like a bulb that resonated with consumers and it was a price to get them to move and start buying it .. .. has been a huge success with what the Depot .. .., exceeded both what our expectations..."
"Yes I think as brand investment and from the bulb standpoint we look at it, most people might focus on what’s it done to the lighting segment margins our focus has been, it’s a paid for marketing campaign versus some people as Paul just mentioned they just sink marketing dollars in and then hope the revenue comes down the road, we’ve been able to use the bulb to generate and provide the funds to do the corporate branding exercise. And then in addition to what the depot has done in helping and promoting our product.."
What a crock! The lowest trade pre-market was 51.79, so how did you manage 51.70?
You stated that your avg. price was $50.50, on three trades. If you lost $1.20/sh, that means you only shorted a total of around 466 shares. So, each trade was 155 shares. You mean to say you were here in June preaching to the board that you were confident in your short position, with only 155 shares short? Why bother?
You have been spouting off here since May. You sure you didn't start shorting in the 44-47 range?
I don't believe anything you say.
Again, you are just playing word games. A "problem for the company" is not the same as a "problem with the company". As you well know, when you start with "the problem with the company...", everything else that follows is false, since the basis is false. This is the definition of a straw-man argument. You then continue with another straw-man about HD and product placement. You attempted to create a discussion about a subject that was false to begin with.
You are a professional shill. It is very obvious. You are a master of the "straw-man".
"This is where I'm starting to think the problem with the company is."
JP, here is what you are missing. Cree has no intention of competing long term in the "commodity" business. They have come out and said (see last earning conf. call) that they got into the bulb business as a way to market their LEDs and the Cree brand. They want to sell the LEDs inside the bulbs, not necessarily the bulbs. They are happy to sell LEDs to Chinese bulb manufactures. They said it was cheaper and more effective to start selling bulbs to customers through Home Depot than attempting to build a brand through marketing of LEDs to other manufactures.
Additionally, LEDs are manufactured using a semi-conductor process. Cree maintains a technological advantage in this area that is not easily overcome. There is a high barrier to entry. Intel has been able to maintain a technological advantage with their manufacturing process for well over 20 years. No reason Cree can't do the same.
"Does the recent rise really surprise investors?" - not this investor!
pokernstocks • May 23, 2014 3:47 PM Remove
It isn't going to take 12 months. Wait until the rich folks read the WSJ and Barrons and Forbes over the weekend. I expect next week there will be several upgrades. This thing will march right to $30/sh within the next two weeks. This is a very predictable pattern. Sell the news, because the benefits are long term...wait until the traders are done, and then the investors will step in. Bottom line (no pun intended) is that there is no way in hell that a safe 10% dividend will be ignored by wall street
Maybe I have myself on ignore, because I posted the link earlier and now don't see it. It is on page 13 of retail brokerage presentation on the Linn website. No taxes until 2018.