Coal news might get worse. Oil news might get worse. I am more concerned about the oil news.
But I would rather be waiting for $26 than $12. Chances are neither of us are going to be anything but bored.
Very interesting but NG prices worldwide are not nearly as low as in the U.S.
Low NG prices are giving many U.S. companies a competitive advantage.
$18 soon then $20 and I hope to get out at $26 after some M&A action.
Long term this is a loser.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This company may be out of business in two years.
They spend $2 for every dollar they take in. For sure a lot of that spending is investment. But if drops this stock is toast. It is closely held so it will not go BK but be sold but it may well be a distress sale at say $12 a share.
Their suppliers are making money.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
There is some weak resistance between $17.50 and $18.50 so that may be a short pause before a move to $20. Then we wait for M&A,
Only the oil and industrial minerals part of NRP will survive. The Met Coal will be sold to some larger Met Coal company and the Thermal Coal will be owned by someone with a speculative nature or White House connections.i.e. the Chinese.
One has to do the math on the P/E s that apply to the various pieces. I have not done that math but the chart tells me $26.
That is a correct analysis which is why this company will essentially cease to exist as a coal streaming company within three years and existing unit holders will be paid $26 a unit.
If the future was bright, the company would be buying coal reserves and diluting existing unit holders. Because the future is not bright the company is in some sort of transition/liquidation phase and this will result in existing unit holders receiving $26 per unit.
If the future was bright this would be a $50 stock but it might take ten years to get there. But since the future is not bright the transformation/liquidation will occur fairly rapidly.
All of this is too complicated for a robot to understand without receiving an upgrade from the linear thinking to which this robot is constrained. .
So this robot processes correct data but draws the wrong conclusions.
See you at $20
Coal is dying. NRP will be at $20 soon. Then perhaps some M&A activity that results in shareholders owning something worth $26.
It is easy to lose money if you focus on the wrong things.
NRP breaks resistance so BOT very sad. Thermal coal is a dying industry. I will be happy when NRP gets bought out at $26.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Looks like $16.50 is short term resistance. If it breaks that BOT will blow a fuse poor BOT. I wonder if BOT believes int stop loss orders. After $16.50 it gets a bit murky and it looks like maybe there is a little congestion around $17.50 but pretty much there is a clear path to $20.
So I think from a trading perspective $20 is the upper limit. Then one has to think about M&A which could put a 30% premium on the company resulting in a buyout price of $26.
BOT is having his home assessed for Home Equity Loan in the event there is a $22 offer for NRP.
BOT very sad today.
Don't be sad BOT. It is just money you are losing. It is funny money anyway,.
BOT has spoken and twice today. It is a 2-BOT day.
Must say the short-term trend is not all that exciting but a decline from $16.50 to $16.20 does not seem all that memorable but then again it is all relative.