Hmmm. That is true . You are correct, data was complete at December 31. I think there is a better than 500 percent chance of positive trial. Given that it is pancreatic cancer I think at most a 10% chance of blow out results. If so. boom!! They will certainly have the best treatment for the hardest type of cancer to treat and $75 will be the price in 1 week
Seeking alpha gives a 50% chance of success. so does analyst who lowered target. Both say that if it is a failure, buy the heck out of it because the real value and success probability in ADRO is their other trials.
Aduro Biotech is a cancer immunotherapy company with their lead asset, GVAX+CRS-207, in a phase 2b trial for metastatic pancreatic cancer called ECLIPSE with top line data expected 2Q16.
This is smack in the middle of 2Q16. The news timing is a bad sign. If the patients were still alive, then we would have to wait for the data longer than usual. If, of course, this is about top line results which it likely is
CNN and the press and big pharma would be all over ADRO if they have significantly positive pancreatic cancer results. This is the toughest cancer. Would blow away the pharmaceutical industry. 10 billion market cap overnite
They can still work very close to Israeli companies and have a high status headquarters in La Jolla or Durham. Bring the stock to five. This should be the highest priority unless there is enough cash before high revenue generation but this is not likely with costs of 8040.
They must move. They MUST!! There will never be respect for this company and they will be forced to dilute to penny stock status unless they get some respect.
1 New CEO
2 MOVE out of Israel - this is MANDATORY.
They absolutely need to get out of Israel or at the very least make their headquarters in the US. This will attract MUCH more investment interest,
The stock price also needs to be above 5 and a reverse split to get there will work if they do it right. look at ADXS. Just need to be VERY VERY careful of dilution
38 percent complete remission sounds great except:
Compared to WHAT?
What was the remission in control??
How does this compare to other drugs??
How did the other 62% fare? How are they monitored??
NO ^(&#() DATA
Investors dont know if it worked well or not??? If it did, you missed a chance to have your stock at $4 now instead of $1. If it did work, then you are the worst %*^# communicator, WORST *^*&&( CEO TO EVER MANAGE A PUBLIC COMPANY SINCE ENRON
FDA approval!! Major drug for millions of pups!
Even bigger is the incredible survival rate of their AT-014 candidate drug. Both of these will produce huge revenue very soon!!
Look for major upgrades
Only up 15% for two pieces of MAJOR news. Partly because of the timing of the FDA approval. News will disseminate tonite!
I did dig a bit. You can certainly manipulate this record easily. Especially by issuing a sell at 14.3 with a 14 price target on a day when he knew biotechs would fall.
Had a 0% track record with ADRO after saying buy at 32 dragging down his average. One way to improve that track record is to say sell at 14.3 with a price target of 14 on a day the IBB futures were tanking. Met the target at the open. Now has a 50% track record. Now he can safely wait until after ECLIPSE study and come in with a buy recommendation and further improve his record.
Read the full report. Basically they don't believe ECLIPSE will increase overall survival compared to chemo and reduce the chance of approval to 16% from 35%. So, nothing has changed since the April 2015 data release. So why did they change their mind? Their initial analysis was based on the exact same data. Poof, one day they decide to rethink it based on absolutely NO new data? I dont trust these guys at all. Seeking Alpha article is much more insightful. Other analysts just upgraded or started with 40-68 targets.
analyst is fearful that the drug will be only as good as chemo, which it has already been shown to be (a little better in fact). However, even if the phase IIb shows the same results, the FDA will likely approve based on how safe the drug is compared to chemo.
Note the analyst has high hopes for the STELLAR study and, thus, 14 price target is only temporary. IMO covering his butt if ECLIPSE is not that great. Can always upgrade either way and look like you know what you are doing.