You have interpreted correctly. Another way to look at it; If the bottom falls out on gold (as forecasted by many), then AUY has put a fairly decent floor in place at $4.40ish. IMO (yep everybody has one), anything you can get below $4 and maybe a little higher is a safe bet. GLTY.
Check the details. The -$2.61 eps last quarter was do to a non-reoccurring write down of $2.8B. There operations last quarter still yielded over $900M in gross profit. Analyst eps estimates for 2015 are at $2.30 which has been adjusted down to less than 1/2 of the 2014 eps. I anticipate the divy for 2015 to be cut to the .30 to .50 range. GLTY.
I'm with you. They will likely announce final payout of .75 and a significant divy cut for 2015 which will send the stock higher. GLTY
CAT will likely be down 10-15% today and DE will follow. I will be looking for long positions on both in the $68-72 range later this year. GLTY
You asked "What will be Virtra's cost per lounge": IMO, Virtra won't have any costs unless they negotiated very poorly with Modern Round. The way I've scene this type of arrangement work in the past, is Virtra will get their typical profit margin for the equipment they install in lounges, maybe even a littler higher margins. The 5% ownership Virtra is getting in Modern Round is essentially the royalty fee (a dynamic revenue/profit stream if Modern Round is successful) for use of Virtra's specialized technology and equipment. GLTA!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Some random thoughts: Most villages and small townships won't be able to afford a 300 degree system, but could easily budget and justify a single screen or 180 degree, but I think it is safe to assume each county in the US could afford and greatly benefit from a 300LE. IMO, commuting beyond the county distance for training becomes costly and inefficient for most small LE offices. The US has 3100 counties and lets say Virtra could capture 50% of that business. I would say that is a conservative saturation estimate for US law enforcement. What is even more interesting is that those conservative numbers (1550 units) would generate nearly $390M in initial sales (assumed a conservative $250K per unit) and add to that a very high margin recurring revenue stream of $31M/year. So IMO, Virtra has a very long way to go before they approach saturation with existing products. Hopefully while they work at achieving saturation in the US and around the globe, they can develop some new products and business initiatives. GLTA!
Sentiment: Strong Buy