I built a position over a couple of years that was nearly 15% of my portfolio. After taking some profits between .15 and .17, VTSI is a little over 30% of my portfolio today, which I will continue to hold. Like jmodified, I believe any meaningful buy will be between .16 and .17, and that is probably as it good as it will get. IMO, for VTSI to fall significantly below .16, Virtra will have to fall on their sword which is highly unlikely over the next six months+. GLTU!
I'm taking a different view and see this as an opportunity to sell the news. IMO, the weak global economy and strong dollar will take it's toll on Deere earnings. I view any lift back to the vicinity of the 52 week high as a low risk short opportunity. IMO, Deere will likely revisit the low 80s or lower in 2015. It is also my opinion that most of Buffet's position was acquired in the low 80s. He has some cushion to play with and will likely buy more below 80. GLTA!
Good luck with the divorce. It will get better and quicker than you think. I agree, that the metrics showing the supply gut has turned the corner are two to four months down the road; but I also believe that the best of breed producers and servicers will have moved up by 50%+ before that reversal becomes apparent to the masses.
Kind of like Feb 2009, in the end, it didn't matter whether you bought Ford (F) at $1.50 or $2.16, you still saw a return of several hundred percent in a year. Similarly, I don't think it matters much if you get RIG at $14.50 or $17, because it will likely move up 50-100% on just a supply/demand normalization. And if we over correct (history says we will), creating a supply shortage, then RIG goes much higher in the next year. GLTY with life and your investments!
The fundamental outlook in oil is changing dramatically and IMO, far too quickly. Peak US production in 2014 was ~8.5M BOEpd and global oversupply is estimated between 1-2M BOEpd. As of this past Friday, US producers have shut in ~20% of the total operating rigs with the past week alone accounting for a, record setting, 7% reduction in operating rigs. The price of crude has dropped far too fast and irrationally in response to a 1-2M BOEpd oversupply. US producer activities to date (20% rig reduction) will lead to a ~1.7M BOEpd reduction on global supply and they are still shutting down operations aggressively. Additionally, it would be shortsighted to not anticipate that the likes of Russia, Europe, Venezuela, Brazil West Africa, etc. haven't shutdown a significant number of low margin operations to preserve their financials in this depressed price environment. Everyone is listening to the talking heads and not applying common sense to the countless micro activities and their combined effect on the macro environment of this relatively inelastic commodity. IMO, the resulting under-supply will far exceed the current over-supply in magnitude, setting up an opportunity for financial windfall that will be as great, or greater, than that experienced with US banking and auto manufactures between Feb 2009 and Mar 2010. GLTY!
I like it today under $4. Gold getting taken to the wood shed, but volume is very light?? I see near-term support at $1240+
You have interpreted correctly. Another way to look at it; If the bottom falls out on gold (as forecasted by many), then AUY has put a fairly decent floor in place at $4.40ish. IMO (yep everybody has one), anything you can get below $4 and maybe a little higher is a safe bet. GLTY.
Check the details. The -$2.61 eps last quarter was do to a non-reoccurring write down of $2.8B. There operations last quarter still yielded over $900M in gross profit. Analyst eps estimates for 2015 are at $2.30 which has been adjusted down to less than 1/2 of the 2014 eps. I anticipate the divy for 2015 to be cut to the .30 to .50 range. GLTY.
I'm with you. They will likely announce final payout of .75 and a significant divy cut for 2015 which will send the stock higher. GLTY
CAT will likely be down 10-15% today and DE will follow. I will be looking for long positions on both in the $68-72 range later this year. GLTY