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Horizon Pharma plc Message Board

postbusters 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 31, 2014 8:52 PM Member since: Apr 20, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Call, PB!

    by jjworldwide Oct 31, 2014 7:31 PM
    postbusters postbusters Oct 31, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    Q3 revs up (above estimates)
    Won't guide for Q4 but will update 2014 and 2015 guidance as a whole (almost the same thing for 2014)
    Don't think FDA is through reviewing the request, but we can probably get a general FA timeframe (likely data out end of 2015)
    2015 estimates raised
    Pennsaid pricing would be nice. Will be a relaunch so too early in Q3 to make solid predictions. Probably questions on generic competition from analysts.
    Should be able to give Actimmune pricing (at least $408K/year now)
    Think your sales force question is misguided as TW has been very candid about how he runs the sales force (about 300 physicians each on a perform or drop basis for physicians)
    5 current products, up to 5 more in the works for acquisition.
    Will probably talk about PME mitigating exclusions for V and D. Since exclusions don't start until Jan 2015 it is a bit premature to be fact based.

    Nice to be up on my HZNP so I can respond so off the cuff having just done a day of travel.

  • Reply to

    $1.2 Billion value on Extended Vimovo

    by geringerart Oct 1, 2014 4:42 PM
    postbusters postbusters Oct 1, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    I posted on POZN also, but certainly might be worth HZNP looking at taking over that company again. Anticipated royalty payments for the next 16 years exceed the market cap of that company, so you would get everything else for free. Since there are almost no employees left, the buyout expenses are minimal. Ultimately it will be a decision of how to best use capital, but I could see a 1/2 stock and 1/2 cash deal that would still leave HZNP with a nice cash stash, and additional revs of $15M/year or greater they won't have to pay in royalties.

  • Congrats to POZN shareholders. If the 8 year extension V patent holds (which it should) that would mean a minimum of $15M/year or $120M in addition revs based on 2014 HZNP sales (extrapolated 1H 2014). Since I'm not factoring in any growth or price increases for the next 16 years, it is likely far more. In other words, POZN current market cap equals twice the extended 8 year bonus royalties, if you buy POZN now, you get the stock for the price of V royalties for the next 16 years, and everything else free.

  • postbusters by postbusters Sep 27, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    Looking at the blueprint laid out in the latest corporate update, we are definitely about to start a period of rapid growth. There is a strategy which one learns in business school (MBA) about using your aging "cash cows" to spur rapid growth in areas that will perpetuate and expand revenues into the future. This is what I see in the 3 departments set up by HZNP.

    In a sense, it doesn't really matter if D, V and R expand or decline in sales, or are further impaired in years to come by exclusions. Now that HZNP has Actimmune, cash in the bank, and more importantly, cash generated by its in place products, it can use that money to continue to acquire new products (including additional borrowing based on its cash flow). As we have also seen, the fact the company is doing so well makes its stock a viable currency for potential transactions.. Very quickly, the original stable will become less and less significant to overall earnings. TW is an A student and is making practical application of his education and training.

    Tax base in place for year 2016 and beyond (no taxes anticipated until then), big Department boxes with lots of room to add (particularly in the orphan drug category), and an aggressive hunt for new products that will be accretive within one year (as per CEO's dictum). Gotta love it.

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