I'm just curious as to when people think the company will report new well data. I am long a little bit of stock and am contemplating swapping out of stock and into $15 calls in march. Seems like the prudent thing to do if you think well data is out before then. If it is and is a hit you give up 1.50 of upside. If it is and sucks you can't get your other arm chopped off.
So when does anyone think they report results. I'm of the opinion that if we hear nothing by March 10, that the result is no good. I'd be interested in others thoughts.
pump and dump. Better sell 4.50 calls today. I've been writing them every month. It keeps reducing my cost basis. Now if they get called I have a big gain.
I am long the stock but believe the more likely scenario is a plunge to $8 and then maybe a rebound to 10. The stock will not sniff 15 until they can put out a well result that implies some chance of success in the TMS. I believe that this will happen, however, the timing is not in the near term. As a result the stock is going through the process of repricing the TMS as 0 value. Some would say it should stoop here because that is where it was 1 year ago. However, the difference is an additional 300 million will have been spent on something valued at 0. Therefore a more relavant "holding" ground is 5-8 dollars. Below 5 it can be bought with two hands. Anything above that until a positive well result is in hand will be just additional paper losses for whomever buys.
You do not understand what you are talking about. The 5.70 that you spoke of was for a contract that expired yesterday. By the time the surge happened from 5.25-5.70 there were only 8000 contracts remaining open and unfortunately for someone they were short a good chunk of that 8000. Once the guy who was short realized his pecker was in the ringer he was forced to buy from whoever would provide the liquidity and they commanded a pretty penny. That had the impact of driving up the next month (March) from 5.01 to 5.50 over the course of the last 90 minutes of trading. We gave that up today which while not good was a small victory in my mind as I believed we would need a 250 draw to stay even with yesterday. The key to the spot is going to be the next two weeks draws. If we can get north of 200 next friday (should be a layup given the cold in the south) and 200 on the 14th (depends on weather next week) then we will be golden because my model then suggest less than 1 TCF in storage at the end of March which should be sufficient to keep the curve around 5 bucks for the entire summer forcing switching to coal from gas to allow gas supply to rebuild.
one little risk reversal put on by a guy willing to buy at $45. Doesn't seem all that interesting. Almost no skin in the game and almost no likelihood of getting put the stock. No big deal. He will feel margin pressure if they miss as I expect. Don't get me wrong I like the company and actually am long, but I just have a hunch given the spate of downgrades that a big miss is coming. Plus commodities are acting incredibly weak. Not a good combination. By all rights this stock should be 10 points higher but it isn't. I think the BOD needs to grow a pair of balls and do a large dutch tender. That single A balance sheet in a zirp environment is a negative to shareholders not a positive.
I don't see any activity. I think he is blowing smoke. This sucker is going down. 4 downgrades already this week. In this space news leaks. I smell a big miss. Rats jumping off the ship.